Rookie ADP Rounds 1-5

2019 Rookie Class 2020 ADP Rds 1-5

February and March have brought about the Senior Bowl, the Scouting Combine and also some 2020 Fantasy Football drafts. I have looked at data for over 300 drafts conducted within the last 31 days thanks to Fantasy Football Calculator to cast an eye over 2020 ADP. More specifically, I am keen to look at which Rookies from the 2019 class are set to go in the first five rounds of PPR drafts if they happened today and analyse.

As of today, there are 7 players who were Rookies in 2019, who are going within the first 60 picks of drafts in 2020. I am going to look at their price and tell you if I am buying, selling or holding at that price.

These ADPs and prices will all changes as Free Agency, the NFL Draft and mini camps happen. However, it is still good to check in, as it will affect our strategy when looking at mock drafts, dynasty drafts and also early 2020 drafts and best balls that will occur between now and July.

So without further ado, here are the 7:

Josh Jacobs- RB
ADP- 2.05

Jacobs had a very good 2019. In just 13 games, Jacobs managed 242 carries for 1,150 yards and 7 TDs on the ground. However, he also added 20 catches for 166 yards. I would have liked to have seen more receptions. However, I do think that will increase in 2020. 

The major question mark around Jacobs is if he will be the lone, bell-cow back in 2020. Or, will the Raiders draft, or sign a Running Back to take some of the load off their star, soon to be second year back.

At this moment in time, he is going above Ezekiel Elliott and Derrick Henry in PPR drafts. This feels a little rich for me at this stage. I do think Jacobs is worth a late second, early third round pick. Especially with the numbers shown above. However, both Elliott and Henry are safer picks given their history in the league. Also, if Gruden has more weapons in the air and drafts a Jerry Jeudy, for example, will this affect Jacobs. Personally, I can still see 200-240 carries in a 16 game season for Jacobs as his floor as this time. But, for this purposes of this, I would be selling at the 2.05 due to others around who might be better value. 

Miles Sanders- RB
ADP- 4.03

Sanders had an interesting 2019 season. That is because his first half of the season was spent mostly behind Jordan Howard. Howard was the primary back, who handled the majority of carries until he got a Stinger. However, after Week Eleven, Sanders was, for the most part, the feature back. From Week Eleven, he managed to get 15 touches in every game, until Week Seventeen against the Giants. 

Despite all this, Sanders managed to finish the season with 179 Rushing attempts for 818 yards and 3 TDs. He also managed 50 catches for 509 yards and another 3 Touchdowns. The Eagles Running Back has the ability to kick on from his Rookie year, if they don’t sign much competition. Sanders is currently going ahead of Lev Bell (by 1 spot) in ADP and James Conner.

For me, picking up Sanders in the 4th Round seems like a steal. He is someone, with great upside, if the situation remains as it. Therefore, I am buying Sanders at the 4.03.

David Montgomery- RB
ADP- 4.03

There are three players with an ADP of 4.03 in PPR. Miles Sanders, Le’Veon Bell, and David Montgomery. The Bears Running Back ended his Rookie year as the RB23 overall with 242 carries for 889 Rushing Yards and 6 Touchdowns. He also added 25 Receptions for 185 Receiving Yards and a Touchdown to his numbers.

However, there is no doubting that owners of David Montgomery were left disappointed. After appearing to turn a corner in Weeks Eight and Nine, he then proceeded to have single digit PPR games in six of the next seven games. Those that drafted Montgomery in 2019 in a redraft league probably gave up the chance to take Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs or Leonard Fournette. All three of these greatly outperformed Montgomery. 

By the end of the season, Montgomery would not have been in most people’s starting line-ups. And I get the feeling we could see the same in 2020. Without significant changes, 3.7 Yards per Carry and only 25 Receptions will not get the job done. There is only one consistency point with Montgomery and that was he consistently finished with single digits in PPR. 

At 4.03, he’s a hard sell for me.

Deebo Samuel- WR
ADP- 4.07

Deebo Samuel is coming off an impressive end to his Rookie season. He showed what kind of player he can be for Fantasy Football, especially in the playoffs.

However, the worry is about sustainability in a run first offense. Samuel, down the stretch, wasn’t a usable Fantasy Football asset. In fact, he failed to exceed 50 Receiving Yards in any game past Week Eleven in 2019. However, he did average 24.4 Rushing Yards in his last five games of the regular season. That boosts his floor somewhat. 

However, the major issue is still the fact he was a little too much boom or bust. It is true that there might not be Emmanuel Sanders competing for targets in 2020. However, there is still no getting away from the fact this is a run first offense, with Samuel being the second read, behind George Kittle.

I think you are buying Samuel at his ceiling at this price. He might have a safer floor due to the rushing yards, but I don’t see the upside of him being taken in the 4th round. You are giving up the opportunity to draft Calvin Ridley, T Y Hilton, Michael Gallup and Julian Edelman. All four of these players have far greater upside than Samuel right now. I assume a lot of this price is his Dynasty value. However, I would still take Ridley and Gallup over Samuel right now. He’s a sell at this price in all formats for me.

Devin Singletary- RB
ADP- 4.10

Devin Singletary was probably one of the more exciting players in last years class. Coming out of Florida Atlantic, he dominated and scored a lot of Touchdowns. However, he ended up being drafted in Round 3 by the Buffalo Bills.

The Bills brought their Rookie along slowly, letting him learn from veteran Running Back and future Hall of Famer Frank Gore. As a result, he started slow, before becoming more and more dominant as the season went on. When commanding the majority of the workload and getting 15 carries or more a game, he became a more relevant fantasy player.

There is talk the Bills want to bring in another Running Back to take some of the workload from Singletary. This is common amongst the NFL, and whilst it would hurt Singletary, he would still have some value.

However, it is Touchdowns that really kill Singletary’s stock. Singletary finished the 2019 season with just 4 Touchdowns. And of those, only 2 came on the ground. The largest reason for this is because of his Quarterback. John Allen wants to do it all for the Bills. Whilst Singletary (2) and Gore (2) were running in their 4 Touchdowns on the ground, Josh Allen led the team with 9 Rushing Touchdowns. Since Allen had 8 as a Rookie in 2018, I would not expect to see a lot of regression here. 

However, if you have gone WR heavy early, your options here are Mark Ingram (is he going to be the lead back in Baltimore in 2020?), Phillip Lindsay (how many targets will he lose to Royce Freeman), and Austin Ekeler (Where will he be and who will he be playing with in 2020). As a result, Singletary as a pick makes sense here. It’s a hold for me.

D.K Metcalf- WR
ADP- 5.02

D.K Metcalf was one of the most polarising Rookies in 2019. People did not know what to make of him. Some fans an analysts absolutely loved him. Some thought he would be an absolute bust. His draft stocks plummeted after the Scouting Combine, going from the first Wide Receiver to being drafted in mocks, to eventually coming off the board with Pick 64 to the Seattle Seahawks.

Metcalf, similar to Samuel, is being credited with an extremely strong finish to the season. As a result, this has seen his draft stock rise in Fantasy Football in recent weeks. This ADP also feels like it’s heavily influenced by Dynasty drafts, as opposed to purely redraft. 

The areas of concern for Metcalf are catch percentage and contested catch rate. Metcalf only caught 58% of his targets (58 out of 100), and ranked 33rd in contested catch rate with 47.6%. These numbers will trouble anyone considering drafting a Wide Receiver in Round 5.

However, he was a Rookie and both of these metrics improved as the season went on. This price has Metcalf as WR27 and I don’t hate that. Getting Metcalf at pick 50 is fine as there is upside there. However, there are the risks he does not improve on his 2019 showing when it comes to contested catches. He’s a hold for me.

A.J Brown- WR
ADP- 5.08

A.J. Brown really surprised a lot of people in 2019. Especially when Ryan Tannehill became the starter. 

Brown became the only Rookie Wide Receiver to exceed 1000 Receiving Yards in 2019. He also led all Rookie Wide Receivers with 8 Receiving Touchdowns. 

The Tennessee Receiver showed his speed, athleticism and ability to run routes by making big plays. He was consistently breaking off runs. What was most impressive was he led the entire NFL in Yards per Target of Wide Receivers with over 50 targets. Brown was also second in Yards per Reception of Wide Receivers with over 50 targets, managing a staggering 20.2 Yards per Reception (Mike Williams led the NFL with 20.4 Yards).

Receivers like this hold massive fantasy value. The downside to the deep threat receiver is that they can sometimes be Touchdown dependant. They also do not bring the safety of multiple receptions per game like a slot receiver. However, with Brown producing such promising Rookie numbers, he really has the opportunity to replicate and even improve on these in 2020.

I personally have him higher than Samuel and Metcalf in my early rankings, so this is an easy buy with the 5.08 pick. 

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Check out everything we are doing here on 5yardrush.co.uk. You can also check us out on all the socials @5yardrush, especially Twitter where you can see when we open up listener leagues or exclusive league entries. Also you can subscribe to the podcast on your favourite podcast platform. We have a ton of guests lined up so come and join the fun there. We also have video podcasts and more content coming to YouTube.

However, until next week Rush Nation, Keep Rushing!

~Murf

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