I am back with my look at the 2019 Rookies and where they are in terms of 2020 ADP data. If you missed the first part, you can look back here.
I have looked at data for over 1000 drafts conducted within the last 31 days thanks to Fantasy Football Calculator to cast an eye over 2020 ADP. Same as before, I wanted to see where the 2019 Rookies are currently going in 2020 drafts.
As of today, there are 9 players who were Rookies in 2019, who are going within picks 61 and 120 of drafts in 2020. I am going to look at their price and tell you if I am buying, selling or holding at that price.
These ADPs and prices will all changes as Free Agency continues, as well the NFL Draft and how the rest of the league year progresses. Especially as this global pandemic of the Coronavirus continues.
So without further ado, here are the 9 players that fall between picks 61 and 120 in fantasy football drafts today:
Kyler Murray- QB
Kyler Murray enjoyed a good Rookie season in the NFL. Murray ended up as the QB7 overall with 3,722 Passing Yards and 20 TD with 12 INTs in the air, whilst also adding 544 Rushing Yards and 4TDs on the ground.
Early reports and predictions have Murray as “being the next QB to break out like Lamar Jackson”. I do think that is a bit extreme. However, it is attractive to own Murray given his safe rushing floor. Arizona have also added De’Andre Hopkins to the roster to give Murray another big weapon to throw to. This trade shows the commitment the Front Office and Owners have in Murray, meaning he will certainly arrow up in 2020.
I think he is an attractive QB option if you don’t want to invest in the early QB options. However, I also feel this is going to be his absolute floor in ADP for 2020. At 6.03 he is certainly a buy if you subscribe to the late round QB philosophy but value getting an advantage at the position. However, if he goes into the 5th/4th rounds similar to Baker Mayfield last year, I would change to a Hold (if in Round 5) or Sell (Round 4 or earlier).
Marquise “Hollywood” Brown- WR
“Hollywood” Brown is one of the most polarising fantasy football assets. There are a lot of people who are willing to plant their flag for Brown and a ton saying he is a better football player than fantasy asset.
I’m just going to lay out the facts. Brown played 14 and started 11 games for Baltimore last year, ending up with 46 receptions for 584 yards and 7 Touchdowns. However, 232 yards and 2 Touchdowns came in the opening 2 weeks of the season. In his first 4 games, Brown got 34 of his 71 targets in 2019.
Now there is certainly a case that Brown, who was hurt in Week 7 with an ankle injury, was playing hurt for the remainder of the year. Thus hurting his fantasy production. However, whilst he was on injury reports for the rest of the season, he still made the field.
The question you need to ask yourself is this; Was the real “Hollywood” Brown the one we saw in weeks 1-4, or the one we saw in weeks 13-17? As a result, he is a bit of a gamble for me. Therefore, I will be selling Brown in the 7th round. I think there are many better options in the 8th and 9th round than Brown, as you aren’t sure what you are going to be getting. He could shine and be a great asset, but he is a gamble.
N’Keal Harry- WR
N’Keal Harry is a really hard prospect to judge. There was a ton of optimism about the player drafted with the last pick at the end of the first round in the 2019 NFL Draft. However, injuries and a lack of rapport has meant that 2019 was effectively a red-shirt year for Harry.
Harry’s 12 catches for 105 yards and 2TDs with a further 49 yards on the ground are hard to judge.
What is easier to judge is that although there is only Edelman and Sanu on the roster ahead of him, there is no idea who is going to be under centre next year for the Patriots. Without that key information, not to mention Harry’s ankle injuries make this an easy sell for me based on this current ADP. Expect Harry to fall further however, once we know the home of the new rookies entering the NFL this month.
‘Scary’ Terry McLaurin was arguably the best, and most consistent, Rookie Wide Receiver in 2019. McLaurin, in a dysfunctional Washington Redskins offense, finished off with numbers of 58 Receptions for 919 Yards and 7 Touchdowns. He made himself the primary receiver on his team in the process and was as reliable as they came for fantasy owners. 9 of his 14 starts produced 10+ Fantasy PPR Points.
This season coming sees his opportunity massive improve. Goodbye Jay Gruden and Bill Callahan and hello ‘Riverboat’ Ron Rivera. Competent coaching mixed with more experience and still not a lot of competition means wheels up for McLaurin this offseason.
As a result, he is easily a buy for me at this ADP. However, there is no way his ADP stays here for the summer. I would expect the ADP to end up in round 5 when everything settles down. He’s not an instant buy for me in that round. However, he would be under consideration. Therefore, grab McLaurin in rounds 6 or later if you can.
Noah Fant- TE
One of my favourite rookies in the 2019 NFL Draft was Noah Fant. I loved his production as well as the tape he put on film in college. However, the one thing about the NFL is that (George Kittle excluded) Rookie and year 2/3 Tight Ends are not overly productive. Especially in fantasy football. Fant’s Rookie numbers were 40 receptions for 562 yards and 3 Touchdowns.
Some of the early excitement on Fant this offseason is his partnership and relationship with fellow 2019 Rookie Drew Lock. However, sorry to curb all the enthusiasm, but if the 5 games we have seen the pair play together so far are a sign of things to come, then hit the sell button right now.
Fant’s 5 Fantasy Points Scores in PPR in games with Drew Lock are as follows:
– 1.5 points
– 21.3 points
– 7.6 points
– 3 points
– 1.4 points
Now, Drew Lock could have the playbook more tailored to him, plus there might be some time in OTA’s/Camp/Preseason for them to get on page. However, right now, Fant is an easy sell for me. I’m not a big Fantasy Tight End fan, especially drafting before round 7, but since Fant’s price is not much different from Jared Cook’s, Fant is easily the biggest sell of this entire group right now. I hope I am wrong, as I like the player, but unless something changes, I’m not confident.
Darrell Henderson- RB
Now comes the time in this piece to throw all numbers out of the window on a player, as the mean nothing for Darrell Henderson. His 2019 numbers of 39 carries for 147 yards plus 6 catches for 37 yards are meaningless.
They are meaningless because:
1) Todd Gurley is no longer a Los Angeles Ram. And since Gurley was responsible for 2/3rd of all designed run plays on the team, that is a massive hole to fill.
2) They have no cap to sign a Free Agent replacement. Their cap is so tight, that they cannot go after the big name free agent Running Backs. Not to mention, there are not many left out there to sign, even if they want to.
3) The Rams have no top 50 picks and only 2 top 100 picks. They could spend one of these on a Running Back. However, that would be quite dumb considering they have 3/4 Running Backs currently on their roster and need to improve in many other areas.
Therefore, everything else before is irrelevant. The Rams traded up for Henderson in 2019. He will have a role in this offense in 2020. Therefore, he is worth the gamble, and therefore a buy in the 9th round. If the Rams do not draft a Running Back, expect Henderson to go up 2 and maybe even 3 rounds in ADP before the summer. So if you are drafting now, sneak him in the 8th. He’s worth the investment.
Mecole Hardman- WR
Mecole Hardman is an intriguing prospect. He’s currently the projected number three on the Kansas City Chiefs depth chart for 2020 behind Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins. However, there is a real uncertainty behind Watkins and whether he is on the Chiefs roster in 2020. The Chiefs also re-signed Demarcus Robinson this week after letting him test Free Agency.
Hardman’s 2019 numbers were 26 receptions for 538 yards and 6 Touchdowns. He also had 17 Rushing Yards also. He showed plenty of flashes of potential in his Rookie year. You also have the added bonus of him being the Kick Returner on Special Teams, meaning he could easily break off a Touchdown or two to add to his totals a year.
Of all the buy/sell/holds so are in these articles, this one is the hardest to evaluate. Talent is there. Coaching is there. Quarterback play is definitely there. Offense is there also. Under all of these areas, a number 3 Wide Receiver could and should be considered. However, we know there is an absolute limit to his ceiling.
Given the fact there is noise about Watkins leaving the team, due to his cap number and other factors. This wouldn’t be a big surprise if it happened and it would make Hardman a lot more attractive to own. Right now, Hardman’s price is probably a fair one and a hold. There are players being taken around him you could make a case for instead, such as Alshon Jeffrey, Darius Slayton and Robby Anderson. However, you could also make the case for Hardman over those players as well. So a Hold feels right here.
Alexander Mattison- RB
The first handcuff on the board and most people’s first handcuff that will be drafted. Mattison is another player who’s numbers aren’t worth reviewing, as that is not what you are drafting. Mattison is on a run first offense, behind a guy who is injury prone. If you took Mattison anywhere from the 9th-12th round last year, this gamble backfired for you.
I’ll be honest, I’m not a fan of taking handcuffs in the 9th round. I wouldn’t dare take one before Round 11, if at all. Put this in perspective, you start 10-11 players every week in fantasy football, and the 9th guy you take off the board isn’t going to start in real life? It’s just too much of a gamble at this stage of the draft. If you want to read more on Running Backs and the thinking/strategy behind them, read my I Streamed a Stream piece on Running Backs I released last week. Once you read that, and understand the roster construction more, you will release that drafting a handcuff in the 9th round doesn’t make a ton of sense.
Therefore, Mattison, at this ADP is a sell candidate for me, all day long.
Parris Campbell- WR
This might sound similar to N’Keal Harry’s review, however Campbell endured a 2019 to forget. He ended the season on IR with a fractured foot injury, after suffering the following injuries during the season: Broken hand, abdomen injury, hamstring injuries. To have 4 different injuries in one season isn’t bad luck. It is a sign that a player, who should be in his physical prime, is going to struggle to play 16 games.
Whilst he lit up the 2019 Scouting Combine with his amazing head turning 40 time, this speed is no good if he doesn’t see the field.
Campbell does see an arrow up in his situation this year, as he has Phil Rivers throwing the football under centre. He also doesn’t have a ton of competition for targets. Devon Funchess is gone and so he is behind TY Hilton, but ahead of Zach Pascal on the depth chart.
But these injuries scare me. It’s not just 1 injury to overcome. As a result, I would only punt for Campbell in the later rounds.Three players around in him ADP are Emmanuel Sanders, Anthony Miller and Jared Cook. All of these easily are players I would draft before Campbell. Therefore, Campbell is a sell for me at this stage.
Up next week I will go through the 2019 Rookies that are going after Round 10 in ADP. If you have any questions however, please do leave them in the comments below. Or, feel free to get in touch with us @5yardrush on Twitter or any other social channel.
However, until later on in the week, where I will be back with my I Streamed a Stream Wide Receiver review, Keep Rushing!
– Murf (@Murf_NFL)