With 2020 Fantasy Draft season behind us, I wanted to take a look at the ADP draft values from last season using the articles I wrote in May and June and dive into how things went. The question is did anyone smash their ADP value and did anyone fail to live up to the price paid in drafts?
I went through 15 rounds and picked one player from each round that I thought to be the best value for their ADP at the time. You can find rounds 1-3 here.
The exercise wasn’t about filling a squad but picking who I thought was the best value in that round. Here’s how rounds 4-7 went.
I wrote a lot about Metcalf in the months leading up to the 2020 season. Looking back at his rookie season and how much the Seahawks loved him, used him in 2019 and then spoke about their plans for him in 2020 just made me want him in as many leagues as I could get him.
At the time he was coming off the board as the 46th overall pick and as the WR 22. In fact he was in the same round as his teammate Tyler Lockett. This was one of my points to promote Metcalf. Everyone saw Lockett as the number one WR in that offence, however it took Lockett 5 seasons to get 100+ targets in a season whereas Metcalf did that in his rookie season.
The cards were on the wall and for me it was easy to see Metcalf was the choice. He finished the season as the WR 7. He bagged 83 receptions for 1303 yards and 10 TD’s. I spoke about how last season he managed 9 games of 60 or more receiving yards. This season he changed that to 9 games of 80 or more receiving yards.
Consistency pays off!
During the fantasy season consistency is key. Although Tyler Lockett finished as the WR 9, his stats all came from boom or bust games whereas Metcalf was consistent throughout the season. Metcalf had 8 games where he scored 15 or more half PPR points compared to Locketts 4 games of 15 or more points. Looking at 10 or more points is even healthier for Metcalf, getting 11 games over 10 points compared to lockett with only 5 games over 10 points.
I strongly backed Metcalf last season and he didn’t disappoint. Getting a late 4th round pick that finished in the top 10 WR’s is a win in my eyes. The problem now is everyone has seen how good he is and you won’t be finding him in the 4th anymore. You will find him two rounds earlier mixing with the likes of Hopkins, Diggs and Ridley.
At first glance, the stats for David Johnson don’t look great for the 5th round. He finished as the RB 19, rushing 147 times for 691 yards and 6 rushing TD’s, whilst also getting 33 receptions for 314 receiving yards and 2 receiving TD’s.
However I will make a slight argument in Johnson’s Defence. He played the first 7 games before getting hurt after the bye week in a game against Jacksonville in week 9. Including the early finish, Johnson was out for 4 games. He came back for week 13 and was out again in week 14. Before having two great games in the fantasy Playoffs in week 15 and 16.
In every game that Johnson played, he only had two games where he got under 10 half ppr points. One of which was his injury game in week 9. The two fantasy Playoff weeks he was back for were impressive. Week 15 Johnson got you 18 points against a tough Colts D and then in week 16 (fantasy Championship week) he racked up a fantastic 27.4 fantasy points.
Was he a Value?
Looking at the RB’s that went around Johnson in fantasy drafts, Johnson actually fared quite well. At the time of me writing the piece, Johnson’s ADP was the RB 20 so actually you got what you paid for with Johnson finishing as the RB 19. The RB’s drafted just before Johnson were players like Fournette, Bell and Ingram. The players drafted just behind were the likes of Mostert, Singletary and Akers.
All 6 RB’s finished behind Johnson. Singletary was the closest at RB 34. Then came Fournette at RB 36, Akers as the RB 43, Mostert RB 48, Bell RB 63 and then Ingram finished RB 73. Granted their might have been a better option at WR but I was looking for upside and the Texans RB had that and finished above a lot of the RB’s going around him.
Swift was the first rookie to feature in this series and it panned out to be the season we expected. Slow start behind established Running Backs, then picking up near the end of the season to try establish himself as the lead guy in the backfield.
Swift started the season carrying the ball 12 times in the first 4 games. After the week 5 bye Swift started to get a lot more carries, racking up 58 in his next 5 games including being named the starter in week 10 before he left the game with concussion and missed the next 3 games. Swift was eased back into it in week 14 before being named starter again in week 15. Those last 4 games of the season saw Swift carry the ball 45 times with 4 TD’s to go along with it.
Swift ended the season as the RB 18, running the ball 114 times gaining 521 yards and scoring 8 TD’s. To help his fantasy stats he also had 46 receptions for 357 yards and an extra 2 TD’s. That’s 878 total scrimmage yards and 10 TD’s. Not bad for a rookie pick, especially in the 6th round after finishing one place ahead of David Johnson who was going in the round above.
Swift also finished ahead of fellow rookies Cam Akers and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Along with established Running Backs like Miles Sanders and Devin Singletary. All of which had a much higher ADP. I feel Swift in the 6th gave back exactly what you were paying for but with an added bonus. He scored more points for you over players who cost a bit more draft capital.
Those of you who jumped on board this mid draft pick up of Kareem Hunt would have been loving life with the value you got. Hunt finished the season as the RB 10. He ran the ball 198 times for 841 yards and 6 TD’s. He also picked up 38 receptions for an extra 304 yards and 5 more TD’s.
Granted when you were drafting Hunt in and around the 7th round you were thinking the one-two punch of Chubb and Hunt was able to work and get you enough volume to make Hunt worth a grab in the 7th. Little did we know that Chubb was going to be out during the season. Meaning Hunt was then able to get pretty much all the backfield work to himself.
Chubb owners won’t have been too miffed as Chubb still went on to finish one place above Hunt as the 9th RB overall. The value you got for Hunt however was outrageous. Especially when you pair him up against Chubb who was being drafted in the first round.
You might not get that value again with Hunt as he’s already risen up to the end of the 3rd start of the 4th round. Even with Chubb being the number one back in the team.
Rush Nation that was a look at 2020 Fantasy Draft values in rounds 4-7. Next up will be rounds 8-11 to see if anyone managed to smash their mid-range draft value before the end of the draft.
Until then, Keep Rushing
Pittsy – @PittsyNFL