ADP SMASHERS – Quarterback

What’s good Rush Nation? I am back with another mini-series looking at which players I believe will not just return on their draft capital but absolutely smash it to smithereens. For this group of articles, I’ll be grabbing my ADP data from FantasyPros. All of them will also be based on PPR leagues. In this article I’ll be taking a look at the Quarterback position.

So, What is ADP?

ADP is the abbreviation of “Average Draft Position”. FantasyPros compile their 2022 PPR ADP from multiple sites such as, ESPN, RTSports, Fantrax, FFC and Sleeper. We can then tell the average time a player is drafted across all those PPR leagues and it can help us decide whether or not to draft someone or if we believe we can get them a couple rounds later. For a deeper explanation and some other useful tips checkout this article here by Matt Barbato, of FantasyPros.

All ADP correct as of 28th July 2022.

Derek Carr – Las Vegas Raiders

Let’s start with a big hitter. Last year in Vegas Derek Carr finished the 2021 season as the PPR QB13. Even with his main target from the previous two seasons Darren Waller, struggling with injuries and missing six matches. Even when Waller was on the field he wasn’t as productive as previously either catching less than 60% of his targets. 

These issues led Carr to look elsewhere and up stepped third year wideout, Hunter Renfrow. Reeling in 103 balls from 128 targets for over 1000 yards and 9 Touchdown’s on the year, Renfrow finished the year as PPR WR10. Carr and Renfrow formed a formidable partnership as they took the Raiders to the playoffs. Add to this a healthy Waller and things are looking good for Carr in terms of weapons in 2022.

A reunion in Sin City

Davante Adams was acquired from the Green Bay Packers this off-season. One of, if not the best Wide Receiver in the NFL is reunited with his college Quarterback. Three of the last four seasons, Adams has finished as a top 3 Wide Receiver in PPR. It won’t take the former team mates long to rekindle that relationship they had at Fresno State. 

Currently being drafted as the QB13 you can let someone take two Quarterback’s before you even draft him, in 12 team 1QB leagues. An ADP of 104 mean’s you can stock up on numerous studs at other positions and pull the trigger in round 9 comfortably, knowing what Carr has in his arsonal this year. Although, I would not be surprised if this changes slightly throughout August.

2021 see Carr attempt more passes than ever. That will not reduce with the return of Waller, addition of Adams and 2021 breakout Hunter Renfrow. A new coaching regime for the Running Backs may see Josh Jacobs utilised even more in the passing game, just as he was last season, catching 54 of 64 targets. Having only finished as a QB1 once in his 8 seasons, Carr should shatter that barrier in 2022.

Matt Ryan – Indianapolis Colts

I previously touched on Matty Ice a couple of times for 5 Yard Rush in my Rookie Hit or Miss series. Specifically, Alec Pierce and Jelani Woods. Moving on from Atlanta after 14 seasons, Ryan has a whole new challenge after a below par 2021, by his standards. The Colts gave up a third round pick in exchange for the former NFL MVP. Ryan finished up as the QB20 last year, only the second time missing out on a top 15 finish.

The Colts are ready to win and they want to win now. Matt Ryan took his previous team to the Superbowl back in 2016, the year he was MVP. Atlanta are the complete opposite end of the spectrum. The Falcons have entered a rebuild drafting blue chip Tight End Kyle Pitts last year, who Matt Ryan unlocked for over 1000 yards. Unheard of as a rookie at the position.

Lesser known but super athletic Jelani Woods was drafted to Lucas Oil Stadium this year with Tight End being a position of need. After Jack Doyle’s retirement, Mo Alie-Cox is in line to be the TE1 on the team but has yet to eclipse 400 yards or 50 targets in his 5 years so far. Alongside Woods this year was Cincinnati Bearcats wideout Alec Pierce. A field stretching option not to be under estimated. For a more indepth look at these guys check out the other articles mentioned above. 

Upgrades all around

After Calvin Ridley’s off field issues, Matty Ice was left with Russell Gage and Kyle Pitts to aim for last year. A depleted receiving corps at best. Enter: Michael Pittman Jr. who was solid last year with the underwhelming Carson Wentz under center, Ryan has a true WR1 to sling the rock to in 2022. Pittman Jr. finished as the WR17 in PPR last year. Despite only catching six Touchdowns. I have no doubt MPJ can elevate to new heights with a far more consistent signal caller. 

Not only at Wide Receiver, Matt Ryan’s new O-Line is a significant improvement on last years. Jonathan Taylor finished as the RB1 last year behind the same line. If they can help JT pound the rock and end up THE Running Back to roster this year, no doubt they can help Ryan stay upright and not get sacked 40+ times, like he has the last 4 years. 

I don’t think I’ll stop beating the Matt Ryan drum this off-season. A supremely consistent Quarterback with tonnes of experience. He’s a sleeper for me to finish as a QB1 in this offense. Currently being drafted as the QB21, essentially he’s free. You can pick him up well in to the double digit rounds as your QB2. If you waited on your QB1 or didn’t get a stud, Ryan can be used as more then just for bye week cover and you could start whoever you think has the better match up that week. 

WILDCARD CHOICE

Ok, now we’re swinging for the fences! Each week I’m gonna throw in a wildcard that we can pick up towards the very end of drafts. In leagues with a deeper bench, it may be worth drafting a third Quarterback. Or, if you waited until the very last round(for your back up) and you want a guy with upside, rather than entering a waiver lottery for bye week cover. If Matt Ryan was “essentially free” to draft at QB21, we might be owed money for this guy. 

Baker Mayfield – Carolina Panthers

Baker get’s a lot of bad press in the Fantasy Football world. Aside from playing through multiple injuries and having OBJ up and leave last year, it wasn’t a great 2021. Mayfield finished as the QB25 in PPR but that was his first finish outside of the top 18 at his position. Cleveland traded for Deshaun Watson, Baker got upset, the rest is history. 

The 2018 first overall pick joins a competition for the starting job in Charlotte. He should have enough in his locker to be on the field come week one and it’s a lot less bleak then being a Brown. Firstly, DJ Moore who hasn’t had under 1100 yards since his rookie campaign. Secondly, healthy Christian McCaffrey. The best pass catching Running Back in the NFL and a Fantasy Football cheat code.

There’s a lot of questions needed answering but from only attempting over 500 passes once and a run heavy offense, to a fresh start on the East Coast with an organisation moving forward. Baker Mayfield will absolute obliterate his ADP of QB29. If he plays the whole year, drama and injury free, I’d expect a mid QB2 finish the same as he’s put up in the past. 

Lewis – @lvenes1