ADP Top 5 Buys

ADP Top 5 Buys in PPR Re-Draft 2020 Rds 1-6

Well Rush Nation, I’m back! It’s been a while writing for the site. As most of you are probably aware, there was a book to finish and put together. You can buy the fruits of that labour here for the low price of £7.99. Although if you want the physical version, that can be purchased on Amazon here. However, it’s time to talk ADP buys.

Redraft season is officially open for business. For some, if not many of you, it is too soon to be thinking about drafts. For others, you have done your dynasty rookie drafts and are chomping at the bit for more.

So today, I’m here to give you the Top 5 “buys” in PPR that are in Rounds 1-6. I will do the later rounds next week, before I also do the “sells” another time. 

*All ADP Data comes from Fantasy Football Calculator

1. Todd Gurley- ADP 2.11 

Todd Gurley had a “down” year last year where he finished as the RB14 in PPR. Gurley’s stock crashed last year due to his arthritis in his knee. He was going on the 2-3 turn, and started 12 games, whilst playing in 15. There were 3 games he saw a reduced workload. This occurred around their bye week, at a time when the Rams felt confident they would make the playoffs. Once they were behind in the playoff hunt, Gurley’s snap percentage and carries went up. He averaged 19.4 PPR points and scored 6 Touchdowns between weeks 13-16, when the Rams were in win or eliminated mode. There is a reasonable argument the Rams went soft on Gurley in the middle parts of the season, trying to save him for the playoffs. A tactic that clearly backfired.

However, Gurley now moves to Atlanta. A far better Offensive Line blocking and opening holes for him, with a Coaching Staff under pressure to show success. Dan Quinn and the rest of his team are on the hot seat, after 2 lacklustre seasons. They are also playing in the NFC South, with early NFC Favourites New Orlean Saints and the revamped Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Falcons will need to use their weapons every single week to have a chance to secure a playoff berth. And with Gurley on a 1 year deal, it means they will not be afraid to use their Free Agent acquisition. Gurley from the 2.04 range downwards is a massive buy. The path to him finishing in the top 10 is clear.

2. Le’Veon Bell- ADP 3.08

Bell had a disappointing year last year. However, the one thing Bell has in his favour is his volume. The Jets star Free Agent Acquisition from 2019 had 311 targets in 15 games in 2019, but only 4 Touchdowns. Bell’s numbers equated to the following vs all Running Backs:

  • 3rd highest snap percentage
  • 11th most rushing attempts
  • 7th most receiving attempts

The major issue last year was the Jets only scored 25 Touchdowns. When Sam Darnold went down, the Jets could not move the chains. The Jets also massively struggled with their offensive line. They ranked 31st in Running Blocking efficiency in DVOA Football Outsiders efficiency rankings.

The Jets acquired the man mountain that is Mecki Becton with the 11th overall pick in the draft to assist with this very problem. Beckon showed during the practices at the senior bowl that he is ready to create some holes for Bell and allow him to improve on the worst Yards per Carry numbers of his career in 2019 (3.2YPC in 2019).

Bell has no competition for touches. With Sam Darnold back, an upgrade at RT and a year in the system under his belt, he is due for not only some positive Touchdown regression (he finished joint last with Leonard Fournette for Touchdowns scored with 200 carries as a minimum), but he will see both his YPC and total carries increase in 2020.

3. D.J. Moore- ADP 4.04

D.J. Moore had an extremely successful Sophomore year. Moore amassed 87 receptions for 1,175 yards and 4 Touchdowns off 135 targets in 2019. This was made even more impressive considering he played with 3 different Quarterbacks last season. He started the first 2 games with Cam Newton, before his injury ended his season. He subsequently isn’t on the team anymore following his release. Moore then played 12 games with Kyle Allen under centre; A man with just a single NFL start prior to this stretch of game. Allen threw just 17 Touchdowns, with 16 Interceptions in his 13 appearances (he took over from Cam Newton in Week 2). D.J then had to endure 2 horrific games from Rookie QB Will Grier, in which the 3rd Round Pick failed to throw a single Touchdown and threw for a measly 228 yards in the final 2 games of the 2019 season.

So, whilst Moore’s numbers don’t appear to jump off the page, he did endure some of the worst Quarterback play the NFL has seen for some time. This season, his situation has massively brightened up with the highly accurate Teddy Bridgewater coming to Carolina to be the man under centre. Carolina also signed an exciting backup in the XFL’s unofficial MVP P.J. Walker. Moore won’t need to be begging for the ball either. With Carolina spending all seven picks in the draft on defense, Moore’s target share is extremely safe. 

Moore played over 92% of snaps in 2019, had the 10th most targets among all Wide Receivers, and commanded a very impressive 24.3% of targets. The upgrade at Quarterback will ensure he receivers more quality targets, instead of just having to fight for the scraps thrown his way.

4. Robert Woods- ADP 4.09

Probably one of my favourite players to pick up this season (at least he was until this was read), Robert Woods represents incredible value this season.

Last season, the WR14 had a career year! Though you wouldn’t believe it if you owned him last year. He had a career high year in targets and receptions. However, it was those two Touchdowns that really killed his fantasy stock. Had he scored just 1 more time, he would have finished as the WR12. 

Let that sink in for a minute. Robert Woods, with just 2 Touchdowns, was less than 6 points off a WR1 finish last season. He played almost 93% of snaps, had a 23.4% target share in the offense, with 12.6 yards per reception. His 2 receiving Touchdowns were the fewest of any player who had 100+ targets. Therefore, on the same volume, he is due positive Touchdown regression. However, Brandin Cooks and his 72 targets have left the team. Therefore, it is likely Woods can have another career year in targets and receptions. 

Robert Woods has every chance of being a WR1. He is currently being drafted as the WR18. In some drafts, he’s going in the early 5th round. This is just an auto pick in the 4th round of all your drafts. I’d have no difficulty taking him as my WR1 in the 3rd round if i started RB/RB. So if he is there in the 4th, he’s an instant buy.

5. Brandin Cooks- ADP 6.12

Someone will need to explain this ADP to me. Because I don’t understand it. Yes, Brandin Cooks was bad last year. Why was he bad? Because Goff didn’t throw him the ball. He saw a 39.5% drop in targets in 2019, which saw him fall to the WR61. Yes Cooks had another concussion, which is a major concern for a player who has suffered several in his career. But he also saw a reduction of work because the Rams could not afford to keep Cooks. He was always going to be leaving the Rams in 2020. As such, the Texans, soon after trading star receiver De’Andre Hopkins away to Arizona, traded for Cooks to be the team’s new number 1 receiver. 

I can only assume drafters have missed the memo that Cooks is the Number 1 in Houston, catching balls from De’Shawn Watson. The same Houston offense that is extremely pass heavy and likes to get the ball down field. Cooks had 4 straight 1000 yard seasons before last season. And I am completely sold he will be on his way to number 5. For a 6/7 turn pick, he is an absolute steal and a true diamond in the rough pick here. Picks like this help win you championships just as much as drafting well with your first 2-3 picks. Because Cooks is a difference maker in a round where few of these are still on the board.

 

I’ll be back next week with more steals, this time in the later rounds. However, until next time Rush Nation, Keep Rushing!

– Murf (@Murf_NFL)

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