Murf’s Like/Marry/Avoid

Like

Chris Godwin

Chris Godwin was the WR4 on the Buccaneers depth chart behind Evans, Jackson and Humphries. Now, with the latter of the two names having departed for Philadelphia and Tennessee respectively, Godwin now finds himself as the WR2. Last season, he finished as a top 30 PPR WR despite his place on the depth chart, so there is only one way to go on Godwin. So why is he not marry? His ADP has him at 58 which puts him at the 10th pick of the 5th round, and that is his value in my eyes. It is not inconceivable somebody likes him even more and takes him before pick 58, meaning I can see Godwin on some of my rosters, but not all of them. So why does he get the hype? Well there is Bruce Arians, who we all know likes the “sling the rock” and play “no risk it, no biscuit” football. And as mentioned he will see a huge increase in targets this season. I am projecting Godwin to finish as the WR 24 with 101 targets, for 75 receptions and 971 yards and 8 touchdowns. He finished last season with 3 top 18 weeks, including being number 1 ranked WR in all of Fantasy Football in week 17 last season. The secret is out on Godwin, and despite being a WR2 he is going to have an impact. If you want Godwin, you might have to reach to grab him.

Adrian Peterson

“Murf, what are you doing! He’s 34!” I know, but when you have a guy who rushed for over 1000 yards last year and ranked as the RB19 in Fantasy Football last season become available with an ADP of 109, I’m liking that quite a bit and want him on some of my teams. Guice is coming off a very serious injury, into a scheme he has never played in, in a league he has never played in, and he is dealing with personal tragedy. There are a ton of red flags on Darrius Guice, and the Washington Front Office also agree, or they wouldn’t have given him a deal. Do you think AP is going to spend the last 12-24 months of his career if he doesn’t think he is going to be the lead back on opening day, and have an opportunity to keep the red-shirt rookie off the field? No way! AP isn’t the MVP player he was and he does have flaws. He had a game last year with a 90 yard run and failed to get 100 yards in the game. But for the current projected RB45, I’m giving him a shot. The relationship won’t be exclusive, and I will always be keeping my options open, but I will be keen to see where it goes. The potential and upside is too good not to for the range.

Mike Gesicki

This was a player who 12 months ago was ranked the 2nd highest Rookie TE after Dallas Godaert. He performed massively at the combine: 92nd percentile in the 40 yard Dash, 98th percentile in the Vertical Jump, 96th percentile in the Broad Jump, 98th percentile in the 3 Cone, 95th Percentile in the 20 Yard Shuttle, 96th percentile in the 60 Yard Shuttle. 92nd Percentile in WingSpan. He also was in the top quarter in Arm Length, Hand Size and Height. He’s now added some weight, and no longer has Adam Gaze as his coach, who wouldn’t know how to use a Tight End even if somebody gave him access to Bill Belichick for a month of intensive support, he is here and ready to perform. He will be the Number 1 on the depth chart, he will have an upgrade at the Quarterback position and he will now have a coaching staff that has come from the Belichick tree. Need me to sell it even more, how about the fact he is going for almost nothing in drafts. His ADP is anywhere from 222-354 and it isn’t more accurate than that because he is going pretty much unowned in drafts. He only has 202 yards in the NFL, but Miami invested draft capital in Gesicki and he will get a shot this year to shine. You can’t ask for more than that for a last round dart throw in your drafts.

Marry

Matt Ryan

The 2016 National Football League’s Most Valuable Player finished as the number 2 in Fantasy scoring for QBs in 2018. He has topped 4,900 in 2 of the last 3 seasons, including throwing 35 Touchdowns last year and throwing only 7 interceptions. This year, his quest for a second MVP crown is aided with a familiar Offensive Coordinator in Dirk Koetter as well as the fact he will play 13 games indoors this season. Ryan also won’t have many rookies to contend with, except on the offensive line, which has received heavy investment this season with the hopes of being kept upright this season. I am projecting him to go for 4,701 with 30 Touchdowns and keeping his record of 7 Interceptions intact for another season. There isn’t the rushing upside with Ryan, however he will provide stability and will be almost certain to stay within the top 5 QB’s for another year. And since he is being drafted as the QB6 in drafts, you will get a discount, take another player to add some value, then take Matt Ryan and still get that elite production. It’s almost like getting 2 upgrades for the price of one for your roster.

Albert Wilson Jr.

This guy, for his ADP is a must target everywhere. First off, he is going in the 12th round. This discount is mostly due to the season ending injury he endured in Week 7 last season. However, he finished the season with the honour of having the highest points per routes run in the 2018 season with a little over 2 fantasy points per reception. This is mostly due to his aDOT (Average Depth of Target) being a career average of 8.6 yards. He also had a YAC (Yards After Catch)  average over 10 last year and he has always been consistently high in this category. If this isn’t enough, he doesn’t have the competition for targets he had 12 months ago now Danny Amendola has departed for Detroit, meaning there is Devante Parker, Kenny Stills… and that’s about it. Wilson Jr. also has an upgrade at QB this season with Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing the ball all over the field to start the season before Josh Rosen, one of the top rated QBs of the 2018 Draft gets a chance to reboot his NFL Career with Miami. The only concern is health and if he might be ready for Week 1, however there isn’t a guy in this range in the draft with the upside of Albert Wilson. I have him as my WR30 over the season, and there is an injury discount factored in. Go tie yourselves to Albert Wilson, because he could be the key to a deep playoff run due to depth on your roster in 2019.

Austin Hooper

Hooper is at the perfect age for TE Breakout (25) with enough experience now to be a productive and effective Tight End. He is coming off a season, that despite some inconsistencies, he still finished as the TE6 on the season, including being the number 1 TE Week 6. Now, he is getting an Offensive Coordinator in Dirk Koetter whose Tight Ends lead the NFL in Touchdowns the last 3 seasons and he has a former NFL MVP who didn’t show any real regression last year tossing him the rock, and you have a recipe for success. What is even better is that he is the TE15 in terms of ADP this year. Why is he the TE15 this year? I have no idea! He has only missed 2 games in his NFL career so it’s not injury. Maybe he just isn’t a sexy pick. But the fact he is going behind Greg Olsen and Delanie Walker this year is a crime. I am willing to put all my eggs in one basket in Austin Hooper in a lot of leagues. Give me all you got, because on this high powered offense, Hooper is going to massively outperform his ADP.

Avoid

Dalvin Cook

This is going to shock some people, but sometimes the truth hurts. Dalvin Cook has only started 14 of the 32 games he has been under contract to suit up for and appeared in another. That means Dalvin Cook has only played in 47% of his teams games to date as a professional. We then look at his injuries. He has a history of shoulder injuries, an ACL tear and a history of multiple hamstring injuries. For a guy who requires his knees and hamstrings to provide agility and burst off the line, and his shoulders to avoid serious hits and to protect the football, this is more than a casual worry. So now you drill into his 2018 production and Cook only had a rushing YPG average of 55.9. He does top that up with 27.7 YPG receiving giving him a 2018 YPG average of 83.6. He also has 2 touchdowns on the ground and 2 in the air, meaning he is just better than 1 Touchdown every 3 games. These are the sort of numbers a low end RB2 will produce but for a guy who is entering his third season in the NFL and to have an ADP of 13, this just isn’t good enough. Potential is the word you will see banded around. Potential is great, but production is more meaningful. If you are asking me to invest a second round pick on Dalvin Cook, you can just take it from me that it is a hard no! In all cases. Give me Gurley over Cook because if fit, he’s a league winner. I don’t see that production in Cook. The likelihood of Cook getting injured is higher than Gurley’s, of him being out longer is higher than Gurley’s and his production is lower than Gurley’s? But people are taking Cook over Gurley?

Nick Chubb

I will preface this by stating the following: “I think Nick Chubb is a great football player”. His production when he came into the lead back role last year was nothing short of outstanding. However, there are some concerns that for a guy with an ADP of a mid to late second round pick, I just cannot ignore and therefore I need to pass. I don’t have jazzy stats here or anything that will argue against his production and what he has done. These are just concerns that I cannot ignore and therefore he is an avoid for me.
1) He doesn’t get that much work in the Receiving game. Last season he had 20 receptions for 149 yards and 2 touchdowns and this year I have that going down to 15 receptions for 109 yards and 1 touchdown. He isn’t going to give you the insurance of getting added reception yards to boost his totals.
2) The Kareem Hunt Problem. Hunt was signed in the offseason by the Browns and despite being banned for eight games, meaning he won’t been seen until week 10, he will command touches in this offense immediately. He is going to cut into Chubb’s workload, meaning your stud 2nd round RB you have relied on all season has the potential to be a RBBC (Running Back by Committee) candidate at best for the fantasy playoffs, and a bench player is not outside the range of outcomes for Nick Chubb. If I am going to invest a top 24 pick on a player, he has to be someone who is a potential league winner, when it matters.
3) The Todd Monkin Offense. This offense was debuted in Tampa last season. Where did the lead back finish in scoring last season? Peyton Barber was RB26. Sure the offensive line is worse in Tampa and they were trailing in a high number of games, however this offense will be geared towards throwing the ball through the air. That is why they invested in OBJ. I worry there might be less touches in that Cleveland offense than there was 12 months ago.

Zack Ertz

2018 was an outstanding season for Ertz. It was a career year which saw a record number of targets and receptions. It was also an outlier. 2018 for Ertz saw him with 116 receptions for 1,163 yards and 8TDs. However his career best was only 78 receptions prior to 2018. Last season saw the Eagles have no real competition for targets. They didn’t have a dominant RB last year, something they have rectified this season with bringing in Free Agent Jordan Howard and draft pick Miles Sanders. They didn’t have a lot of competition for targets out-wide and nobody stretching the field. Departing is Golden Tate and coming in is DeSean Jackson and rookie JJ Arcega-Whiteside. And then there is a second year phenom by the name of Dallas Godaert who impressed in his rookie season, especially in the red zone. Right now, by taking Zack Ertz in the second round, you are drafting Ertz at his ceiling, banking him to reproduce his 2018 numbers. The chances of him doing this are slim to almost none. I have Ertz ending up with 86 receptions for 798 yards and 6 touchdowns, which doesn’t warrant a second or third round pick on him. Most people won’t think twice on Ertz, but don’t go chasing outliers and ceilings. Instead go hunt for value in other positions.