DFS Picks - DFS NFL Week 13

Daily Fantasy Sport – Week 7 – A win is a win!

Daily Fantasy Sport – Week 7 – A win is a win!

Week 6 saw a winner on the 5 Yard Rush shores! Albeit a small win, but a win is of course a win nonetheless. In a 396 entrant contest, I managed to finish 13th! A lot of things fell into place, and as mentioned in last week’s article, the line up was very flexible in terms of moving budget around. In the end, I opted for Cousins at QB. I also took Justin Jefferson, a masterful decision that allowed an upgrade to AJ Brown. I opted for Mike Gesicki at Tight End. That didn’t pan out, as he came in with a score of 0. The least said the better!

No positive COVID tests this week thus far. Fingers crossed for a full weekend of games with no postponements. Health and well wishes to all!

Claypool continues to impress

A week removed from his huge 4 touchdown haul, Chase Claypool had another successful week. The numbers don’t just off the page quite as much as they did in week 5. However, Claypool was still able to bring in all 4 of his targets for 74 yards and found the endzone again in the process. Ben Roethlisberger and Chase Claypool really seem in sync. As long as the matchup looks good, the Steelers should win this, and Chase Claypool should be in your considerations moving forward. Especially given the issues certain other Steelers receivers appear to be having…

What the Hock is going on?!

Given T.J. Hockenson was facing an ideal opponent, I must say, I’m disappointed. He found the endzone, that wasn’t the problem. The issue was that he was targeted 5 times for only 2 receptions, and a dismal 17 yards. We’ve had Hockenson in the recommendations for two weeks on the bounce now. The only thing that has spurred his blushes is the fact he has grabbed a touchdown in consecutive weeks. That isn’t enough though if you will couple it with low receptions and yardage. There will be a breakout week at some point. Until then, approach T.J. Hockenson with caution.

Week 7 picks

Moving on then to my recommendations for this week. The aim as always will be to seek out those players at a bargain price to guarantee us that big win. The players who are potentially underpriced but could over perform their price tag. 

As was the case in previous weeks, player prices will reflect Draft Kings prices. The points scored will also reflect Draft Kings point scoring, which differs slightly from standard Fantasy points.

QB – Joe Burrow ($5,500) vs Browns

I’ve been impressed with Joe Burrow so far. Given he spends most of the game picking himself up off the turf, he’s put up some fairly steady scores. This could be the week he takes the next step.

The Browns looked like a very sorry team against the Steelers. I actually thought that game may have been closer than it was. This is a good opportunity for Burrow, though. The Bengals are at home. They criminally threw the game away against the Colts last week, but started off really strongly – and were on course to win before that collapse. They’ve been competitive in most games this season. Not to mention the last time Burrow played the Browns, he had his season high 28.54 Draft King points. He’s going to need the rest of his offense to step up. Like the price here though, feels low. Could be a bargain looking back after the weekend.

RB – Joshua Kelley ($5,100) vs Jaguars

Coming in fresh off of a BYE week is the potential bargain of the week! Austin Ekeler is still out through injury, which leaves the backfield to be shared between Joshua Kelley and Justin Jackson. Kelley started off his season quite well, spelling carries with Ekeler. Though he didn’t have the lion’s share of the work, he was still efficient when given the chance. As long as Kelley gets the work, this is a perfect matchup. Jacksonville are giving up 31.7 Draft King points on average per week against opposing Running Backs. They’ve allowed 7 rushing touchdowns, and their 686 yards allowed on the ground is ranked 27th in the League.

Is this a risk? Of course, as Jackson may get the share on gameday depending on the hot-hand. However, I suspect Joshua Kelley will see his share – and he’s a bargain at $5,100 if that’s the case.

WR – Tyler Boyd ($5,400) vs Browns

Tyler Boyd is having himself a good season, isn’t he? He’s established himself as Joe Burrow’s favourite target. Outside of Boyd, there is AJ Green, who looks like a shell of his former self. There isn’t much more in terms of competition for target share. His price tag this week is $400 lower than his lowest so far this season ($5,800). He hasn’t been a touchdown machine, in fact he has only 1 on the season.

Though that isn’t necessarily why you roster Tyler Boyd. You do it because he will absolutely see his share of targets. The Browns have given up an average of 46.3 Draft King points per week against Wide Receivers. They have also given up 9 touchdowns to opposing Receivers, and 1164 yards. I probably don’t need to spell this out for you, but that isn’t good. Their run defense is pretty good, but they’re defensively not great against the pass. Big day for Tyler Boyd? I’m banking on it.

TE – Hunter Henry ($4,500) vs Jaguars

Another Charger finds his name in the recommendations this week. Hunter Henry has been steady so far this season, averaging 12.2 Draft King points per week. In his most recent game though, he had 8 targets, of which he caught 4 and added a touchdown to his box score. That was against the New Orleans Saints, who are marginally worse on paper against Tight Ends than Jacksonville are. That said, there isn’t much in it, and the Jaguars aren’t as good a football team as the Saints. One thing we do know is, Rookie Quarterbacks love their Tight Ends. What i love here is the price. There are 10 other Tight Ends priced higher than Henry this week. On paper, only 3 of those 10 have a better matchup on paper in terms of defense vs Tight End.

For that reason, I can’t ignore him. Not when he’s priced at his season lowest $4,500!

D/ST – Los Angeles Chargers ($3,400) vs Jaguars

Completing the Chargers hat-trick for this week is the Defense/special teams. There’s some tough matchups this week. Games that could be shootouts and games that could be low scorers. But there’s enough of the big teams that have tough opposition to warrant looking elsewhere. The Chargers matchup against the Jaguars looks favourable on paper. The Chargers Defense was highly touted going into the season, but has performed below expectation. Injuries have contributed to that, as has opposition. So far, they have faced the Chiefs, Bucs, Saints and Panthers. That’s four teams with high offensive performances consistently.

I think this team can be better than it has shown us so far, and the Jaguars may be the perfect opponent to welcome coming off a BYE week. Fresh and raring to go, Chargers are my defense/special teams pick for a win this week!

The Selection Process

Finally, to round out the picks, here is my initially proposed team. As always, this is subject to change come gameday, but i like the look of it:

QB – Joe Burrow ($5,500) vs Browns

RB – Todd Gurley ($6,000) vs Lions

RB – Joshua Kelley ($5,100) vs Jaguars

WR1 – Tyler Boyd ($5,400) vs Browns

WR2 – Terry McLaurin ($5,800) vs Cowboys

WR3 – Calvin Ridley ($7,300) vs Lions

TE – Hunter Henry ($4,500) vs Jaguars

Flex – Kenny Golladay ($6,700) @ Falcons

D/ST – Los Angeles Chargers ($3,400) vs Jaguars

Budget remaining – $300

This is the first week in a while that I have had a remaining budget amount. In all honesty, I don’t mind it at all! The extra $300 I don’t feel offers much improvement at any position. Especially when you consider the matchups.

I am hanging my hat on a shootout between Atlanta and Detroit this week. I think Ridley and Golladay both have an opportunity to shine. Julio Jones has a slightly lower price, but I feel that Ridley offers the touchdown dependability to combine with the targets. 

The Lions aren’t a good run defence, so Gurley gets the nod this week. $6,000 isn’t a bad price at all there.

Terry McLaurin, I am a huge fan of. Considering the opposition, he has a good price. The Cowboys have one of the worst secondaries in the league against Wide Receivers. They’ve given up 11 touchdowns, 1,088 yards, and currently give up an average of 46.8 Draft King points against Receivers. Pretty poor. That said, what do you expect from the NFC East this season!?

I can’t see my lineup changing much this week. This was all on first glance and I really quite like it! The Matchups are good, and many players in my lineup are talismanic.

Best of luck in week 7 Rush Nation, and we shall meet again in week 8. Fingers crossed for another win!

Nick Owen (@nickofwigan)

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