Daily Fantasy Sport – Week 5 – The Bargain Basket
We are back again, Rush Nation! Week 4 is now in the rear-view and was hopefully a successful and profitable one for you!
One thing I think we have firmly established from Week 4 is that this season is going to be a flexible one. There’s going to be short notice changes, there’s going to be postponements. Hats off to the league for doing what they can to accommodate the schedule with as little disruption as possible! So, did the price tags from last week help us find some Week 4 bargains?
The Mixon has landed
Last week, I called out Mixon for his non existent performances to start the season. However, I think we can all agree, it was a matter of time before things changed. And changed they did! Joe Mixon put up huge numbers in week 4 and far exceeded his $5,800 price tag. He put up 45.1 draft king points with 3 total touchdowns and just over 180 total scrimmage yards. Huge week. Cincinnati, take note. The more you involve Joe Mixon, the better your result is likely to be!
Contrastingly, a Running Back I expected to have a good week had a no show! I’m still not actually sure whether Henderson suited up last Sunday. Did he do or say something to upset Sean Mcvay? Prior to week 4, Henderson had put up 2 consecutive 20 point weeks. In week 4, against ideal opposition, he managed only 4.8 draft king points. This was largely due to opportunity, as Mcvay seemingly preferred Malcolm Brown on the day. Something to be mindful of in weeks to come, especially when Cam Akers re-enters the fray. This is a crowded backfield, where even the hot hand doesn’t guarantee production one week to the next.
That brings me nicely onto my week 5 recommendations. The aim as always will be to seek out those players at a bargain price. The players who are potentially underpriced but could over perform their price tag.
We’ll be changing it up slightly this week however, as I’ll be sharing with you my initial Draft Kings line-up for the coming weekend! Don’t worry though – you’ll still be getting those budget recommendations!
As was the case in previous weeks, player prices will reflect Draft Kings prices. The points scored will also reflect Draft Kings point scoring, which differs slightly from standard Fantasy points.
QB – Teddy Bridgewater ($5,900) @ Falcons
Teddy probably isn’t the quarterback I’ll go with this week, but he makes a strong case to be chosen. The Falcons defense, specifically their secondary, is non-existent. They have given up a league leading 13 touchdowns to opposition Quarterbacks so far and a massive 1415 yards in 4 games. Opposing Quarterbacks enjoy the most success against Atlanta, averaging 35.5 draft king points per game. That ranks the worst in the league for a defense. The Panthers are 2-2 and Teddy is looking more and more settled in this offense every week. The loss of Christian McCaffrey seemingly hasn’t impacted this offense as much as people thought. Especially with Robby Anderson putting up pro bowl level stat lines every week.
If you go with Teddy this week, I honestly couldn’t blame you at the price! Seems an almost obvious one.
RB – David Johnson ($5,200) vs Jaguars
David Johnson has found himself on this article in the past, and it’s fair to say, he has disappointed. He has failed to reproduce his week 1 form. However, I can’t ignore him at this price. It’s his lowest of the season and he’s coming up against a Jaguars defense that’s been carved up on the ground the last two weeks. They’re giving up 32.2 draft king points on average against opposing running backs. The threat Johnson always possesses is that he can also contribute in his teams passing game. He’s had some tough defensive matchups to begin the season, but this isn’t one of them.
At this price, he makes a great case to at least be a flex consideration.
WR – Deebo Samuel ($5,200) vs Dolphins
Deebo had himself a quiet week against the Eagles, in a game where San Francisco faltered. Their offense isn’t without its issues and has had to deal with multiple injuries in recent weeks. However, they may have Jimmy Garoppolo back this week. Though I’m not a huge fan of his, he is a good game managing Quarterback who should steady the ship. Mostert should be good to go, but may see his carries capped to avoid further injury. The great thing about Deebo Samuel is he contributes in both passing and rushing plays. He’s great out of the backfield, and he’s equally great in open play. He’s a welcome return for this offense that is light at the Receiver position, and a little injury hit at Running Back. To add to all of these factors, he’s playing Miami.
Another worth consideration at this price. If he lights it up, he won’t be priced at $5,200 for a while.
TE – Jonnu Smith ($4,900) vs Bills
The last time we recommended Jonnu Smith was in week 2. He went off for 24.4 draft king points. On paper, Buffalo is a tough matchup for the big bodied Tight End. Delving a bit deeper however, Buffalo haven’t been particularly good against opposition Tight Ends this year. They’ve given up 359 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns so far this season. Their 20.5 draft kings points given up against Tight Ends ranks them 4th worst in the League. The Titans will be well rested after their postponed game in week 4. The Tannehill to Smith connection has been a hot one so far this season, and given the questionable status of A.J. Brown, Smith should see plenty targets in this one. It could be a shoot out!
Great price, this one!
D/ST – Cowboys ($2,900) vs Giants
I can’t really believe I’m recommending this one. Dallas have not been good defensively so far this season. In fact, they’ve been downright appalling. However, they’re playing the Giants, who haven’t scored a touchdown for the past two weeks. Both teams are in the absolutely atrocious NFC East and despite both boasting losing records, both are still in with a shot at winning their division. I expect Dallas to step it up though here for a much needed W. The threat the Giants pose doesn’t seem to be a great one at the minute. That said, this could be one I look back on next week and think “what was I thinking?”.
MY WEEK 5 TEAM
Finally, to round out the picks, here is my initially proposed team. This is subject to change of course, but it’s a team I quite like the look of at first glance:
QB – Drew Brees ($6,100) vs Chargers
RB1 – Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6,800) vs Raiders
RB2 – Todd Gurley ($5,700) vs Panthers
WR1 – CeeDee Lamb ($6,000) vs Giants
WR2 – Tyler Lockett ($6,900) vs Vikings
WR3 – Deebo Samuel ($5,300) vs Dolphins
TE – Jonnu Smith ($4,900) vs Bills
Flex – David Johnson ($5,200) vs Jaguars
D/ST – Cowboys ($2,900) vs Giants
Budget remaining – $0
Much as I like the Teddy Bridgewater pick at the price, I had an extra $200, so opted for the QB upgrade to Drew Brees.
I really like the look of CeeDee Lamb who is emerging as one of Dak’s go-to Receivers, especially around the redzone. He seems more no more involved in his team’s offense week on week.
Tyler Lockett is a little cheaper than DK Metcalf, but tends to see the higher volume in target share from Wilson. Outside of the Seahawks themselves, the Vikings are one of the league’s worst teams against Wide Receivers, so there is that too!
Todd Gurley isn’t the Todd Gurley of old, but he faces a poor run Defense in Carolina, who have so far given up 7 rushing Touchdowns against opposing Running Backs. That’s tied for a league high!
Best of luck in week 5, hope to see plenty of successes out there, and we will meet again for week 6. As always, keep rushing!
-Nick Owen (@nickofwigan)