DFS NFL Week 11 – The return of Famous Jameis
Here we are again Rush Nation, week 11! How did we get here so fast? These weeks are absolutely flying by, and what a crazy season we are having. Week 10 almost epitomised that in a nutshell. If you look back on this season in the future and want to see a quick summary of it, just watch Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins hail mary in the concluding seconds of the game. That about sums up the season for me, for better or worse. That all depends on which side of the ball you are rooting for. Hopefully once again we will be on the right side of the ball in this weeks DFS NFL Week 11 slate.
Sadly, my week 10 heroics did not match that of the Arizona Cardinals. In fact, I’ll cut to the chase. Week 10 was downright awful. Anyone who reads this weekly article will know we usually look at the “what went well” to kick us off, the highlights if you will. We’re going to skip that this week. I’m making the executive decision to put the entire line up in the “what didn’t go well” summary!
The Week 10 Line up
There was the odd performance that would pass as acceptable. J.D. McKissic managed 17.90 Draft King points, which I’m sorry to say is the standout performance. It is probably unfair to put McKissic in this section this week because he massively outperformed his price tag and expectation.
We opted to go with opposing Running Backs in James Robinson and Aaron Jones, hoping for at least a big game from one or the other. In reality, we just got two “safe” games. Jones finished on 14.50 Draft King points, and Robinson slightly better on 16.20. They’re not bad scores on the surface, but given these were two of our priciest assets, they’re just uninspiring outputs.
Jacobi Meyers, like McKissic, also outperformed his price tag. That was less to do with his receiving, however, and more to do with the fact he suddenly became the Patriots QB1! You don’t expect to wake up to find your budget receiver has thrown a 24-yard touchdown, but we will take it!
The rest of the lineup was just dreadful, really. The least said the better.
DFS NFL Week 11 Picks
Onwards and upwards (hopefully), and on to my week 11 recommendations. The aim as always will be to seek out those players at a bargain price. The players who are potentially underpriced but could over-perform their price tag.
As was the case in previous weeks, player prices will reflect Draft Kings prices. The points scored will also reflect Draft Kings point-scoring, which differs slightly from standard Fantasy points.
All the signs thus far this week point to Jameis Winston starting at Quarterback for the Saints. Drew Brees looks set to spend the next few weeks on the sidelines. Taysom Hill looks like anything but a Quarterback at times, being deployed in almost every position that doesn’t require any form of kicking duties. So in week 11, at the price, I like Winston here.
He came into the game last week against a tough San Francisco defence and managed to complete 6 of his 10 passes for 63 yards. If we are being honest, Jameis Winston should probably be starting somewhere in the league at Quarterback. There are far worse Quarterbacks currently posing as starting or stand in Quarterbacks. Last season he led the league in passing yards, and his 33 passing touchdowns were ranked 2nd behind only Lamar Jackson. He did also throw 30 interceptions, too. That’s not great.
However, he finds himself in a good situation here this week. He is facing an Atlanta Defense that’s given up the most Draft King points to Quarterbacks this season. They are allowing an average of 29.2 Draft King points per week. The Falcons have given up the 2nd most passing yards, with 2903 yards. They have also allowed 22 passing touchdowns, with 7 interceptions. So if you are Jameis here, you aren’t focusing on the turnovers. More focusing on the potential output. He’s nicely priced here at $5,900, cheaper than you usually find Drew Brees.
I’ll be totally honest with this one, I’m not confident at all in this pick. In recent weeks, Taylor has seen his stock fall massively. Goalline carries are being gifted to Jordan Wilkins. Passing downs are being shared with Nyheim Hines. Taylor is not seeing the workload we had hoped and his rushing attempts are dwindling. With all that said, he’s facing the Green Bay Packers this week.
Much for similar reasons I opted to include James Robinson last week, I include Jonathan Taylor this week. This could be the week where he makes an impact. He has perfect opposition to do it against as per game, Green Bay give up 33.1 Draft King points against opposition Running Backs. I’m going with both my head and heart on this one. I want to see Taylor do well. I want to see him used properly, and given his share of opportunity. This could be the game that happens. If we don’t see an improvement from Taylor this week, don’t expect to see his name in this article again this season.
Hamler had a slow start to his rookie campaign. However, since the Broncos bye week, they’ve been looking to involve Hamler more and more where possible. You’re not likely to see a huge stat-line from KJ Hamler every week. Though in more recent weeks, he’s seeing a volume of targets. In his last two appearances, he has had 10 targets in both games. Over his last 3 appearances, he’s averaged 11.33 points per game. That’s not huge on the surface, but it’s a modest score for a cheaper receiver. His last two prices have been $3,400 and $3,800, so we are right in the middle this week on pricing. I expect this to be a game that the Broncos have to chase. That would mean the game script should lend to their passing game and should benefit their receivers.
There have been some fairly consistent scores coming from the Washington Football Team’s starting Tight End as of late. His last 4 performances have seen him average 11.4 Draft King points per game. As we know, the Tight End position isn’t a consistently high scorer, so that isn’t bad at all!
This week, Washington hosts the Cincinnati Bengals, who have given up 16.4 Draft King points per game to opposition Tight Ends. Logan Thomas also benefits from his Quarterback. Alex Smith’s check-down rate is 11.5%, that’s the highest in the league this season. That’s exactly how Mckissic benefited last week, and exactly how I see Logan Thomas benefiting going forward. Opposition plus quarterback situation here makes this an appealing and budget-worthy pick at $3,300!
D/ST – Vikings ($3,300) vs Cowboys
There is one position that tends to score less than Tight Ends or is even more inconsistent in scoring. That position is Defense and special teams. The Vikings are no exception to this rule. Prior to week 9, their highest DST score was 6.0, and they’d actually posted a score of 4.0 or less in 5 games up to that point! However, since week 9, they have managed scores of 9.0 and 10.0.
What the Vikings defence now seems to be doing, which they weren’t earlier in the season, is finding ways to turn the ball over. They’ve had 4 interceptions and 1 fumble recovery in their last two outings. They’re also not giving up a high amount of points at the moment. They’ve been controlling games with their effective passing game and outrageously talented Running Back, Dalvin Cook. This week they are hosting the Dallas Cowboys. They still have the same uncertainties at Quarterback that they had two weeks ago. I expect this one to be comfortable for the Vikings.
Introducing the starting line up…
Finally, to round out the picks here is my initially proposed team. As always, this is subject to change come game day:
QB – Jameis Winston ($5,900) vs Falcons
RB1 – Jonathan Taylor ($5,800) vs Packers
RB2 – Alvin Kamara ($9,200) vs Falcons
WR1 – Terry McLaurin ($6,900) vs Bengals
WR2 – Diontae Johnson ($5,900) @ Jaguars
WR3 – KJ Hamler ($3,600) vs Dolphins
TE – Logan Thomas $3,300 vs Bengals
Flex – Justin Jefferson ($6,000) vs Cowboys
D/ST – Vikings ($3,300) vs Cowboys
Budget remaining – $100
The Running Backs
Alvin Kamara needs little introduction. He is averaging 27.7 Draft King points per game. He is facing the Atlanta Falcons, who are actually a fairly competent Run Defense. However, Kamara applies himself in both his team’s running and passing downs. He’s been targeted 80 times this season, hauling in 67 of those receptions for 648 yards. He has 11 all-purpose touchdowns. He’s actually priced at his highest this season in week 11, by $900! Coming in at $9,200. That doesn’t put me off though. Jameis Winston at Quarterback likely makes no dent in his production, as I’m sure Winston will look to Kamara on check-downs.
Terry McLaurin has found his name in my line up several times of late. He’s hard to leave out though, as he continues to produce and continues to face favourable matchups. Despite now having a Quarterback who focuses on the short field as opposed to the long, this didn’t impact McLaurin’s week 10 performance. He still had almost 100 receiving yards on 7 receptions and finished his day with 18.2 Draft King points. One thing is fairly safe with McLaurin, and that is his target share and yardage. He’s only failed to reach 70 receiving yards on two occasions this season.
Diontae Johnson is a difficult pick. Week to week, it depends on who the Steelers want to throw the ball to. One week it could be Johnson, the next it could be Claypool, Smith-Schuster etc. You get the picture. Johnson has been impressive of late though. In week 10, he had 6 receptions for 116 yards and a score. In the 8 games Johnson has suited up in this season, he’s had double-figure targets in 5 of them. His price is now starting to climb, and if he has another good week, I suspect you won’t find him sub-$6,000 again this season.
The Viking Conundrum
Justin Jefferson delivered his bounce-back week, but it was a week too late! Week 10 saw Jefferson haul in 8 of his 10 targets for 135 yards, good for 24.5 Draft King points. It seems all or nothing with Jefferson this season. He either puts up a big score, or he puts up single figures. There seems to be no middle ground.
I’m banking on a continuation of his week 10 momentum, and another big score against the Dallas Cowboys. Perfect opposition for Wide Receivers, as Dallas is giving up the 2nd most points per game against opposing receivers this season. This could well be another blow-up week for Dalvin Cook, but the Cowboys are slightly better against the run than the pass. So I’m hoping they stack the box, force the Vikings to beat them with Cousins’ arm, which hopefully will benefit our man Jefferson!
Best of luck as always in your DFS NFL Week 11 picks Rush Nation. Be sure to listen to our Daily Fantasy Sports podcast here at 5-Yard Rush! We will be bringing you, even more, picks and opinions on the best player picks of the week.
-Nick Owen @nickofwigan