DFS Picks - DFS NFL Week 13

DFS NFL Week 13 – Don’t overthink it

Welcome back, Rush Nation, to DFS NFL Week 13.

With Thanksgiving week behind us, it’s time we turn our attention to the play off race. Now more than ever, it’s important to consider when setting your DFS NFL week 13 lineup, who your player is representing. There are teams in the hunt for top seeds, as well as teams in playoff and wildcard hunts. There are also teams who won’t be represented in the playoffs and will be selecting high in next year’s draft.

The reason I say this, as it is important to consider when drafting your lineup. You want to own players who have it all to play for. Who can find you that extra 10% to produce results for their team and keep them in the hunt.

It’s also worth considering situations players find themselves in. For an example of this is, look no further than Alvin Kamara. Widely considered one of the best Fantasy assets in the league, and rightly so. His production is clearly taking a hit though with Taysom Hill at QB. When you draft your line up, think of how the players you select contribute. Think of how their situation can impact their output. Consider and make your decisions with this in mind going forward. We are now in December, we are a month away from playoff football.

Reviewing Week 12

The ever changing status of players is something you need to keep an eye on. Last week, I recommended Giovanni Bernard in your lineups. Though Bernard played, it’s fair to say his production was likely impacted by the fact he was nursing concussion symptoms. In a league that’s currently ravaged by COVID, injuries and suspensions (will fuller!), it’s important to keep an eye on the news and updates. The last thing you want is to review your lineup after the game starts, and you have a player locked in who you didn’t want there.

Elsewhere, week 12 was disappointing. A lot of the success of the lineup was pending the performances of the Las Vegas Raiders, specifically our stack of Derek Carr and Darren Waller. Despite the favourable matchup against the Falcons’ porous secondary, Carr and Waller only combined for a total of 10.9 Draft King points.

That wasn’t our only missed expectation. Michael Pittman who had been the standout lead receiver in recent weeks for the Colts, didn’t live up to the hype I gave him last week. He finished with 2 receptions for 28 yards. The game script was in his favour, as the Colts found themselves chasing the score early. By half time though, the game was as good as over.

Running it back

A bright spot of our week 12 lineup was in the Running Back’s performance.
Nick Chubb continued his impressive form following his return from injury. He put up his best performance of the season statistically, notching up 144 rushing yards on 19 carries, with a touchdown. He also hauled in all 3 of his targets for 32 yards, giving Chubb a total of 29.6 Draft King points for the week.

Nyheim Hines is the other running back we drafted, in place of Giovani Bernard, who we originally had in our lineup recommendation. Given the doubts over Bernard’s health for week 12, it seemed a sensible switch. The absence of Jonathan Taylor only helped confirm this decision, too. This left Hines in a strong position, destined for a larger workload. As we know with Hines, he isn’t always effective on the ground, but he is a dual-threat Running Back. He displayed this threat again in week 12, catching 8 of his 10 targets for 66 yards. Hines finished week 12 with 17.60 Draft King points, a more than respectable total for a Running Back who only cost us $4,600 last week. This was a switch that paid off, but they don’t always!

DFS NFL Week 13 picks

Moving on then, to my DFS NFL week 13 recommendations! The aim as always will be to seek out those players at a bargain price. The players who are potentially underpriced but could over perform their price tag.

As was the case in previous weeks, player prices will reflect Draft Kings prices. The points scored will also reflect Draft Kings point scoring, which differs slightly from standard Fantasy points.

QB – Kirk Cousins ($6,400) vs Jaguars

Kirk Cousins is putting up some good numbers. His last 4 games have seen him throw 11 touchdown passes, with only one interception. In his last two weeks, he has scores of 26.96 and 30.18! Translated in Kirk Cousins world, this likely means he is due one of his infamous “floor performances”. I am hoping this week won’t be one of them, and it shouldn’t be. Here’s why.

In week 13, Kirk Cousins’ Vikings play the Jacksonville Jaguars. This season, the Jaguars defense has given up the second most passing touchdowns to the Quarterback position, with 23 in total. They’ve allowed an average of 24.1 points per game to opposition Quarterbacks, which ranks them 30th in the league. Of the higher end priced Quarterbacks, Cousins has arguably the best matchup this week. If you are starting Cousins, I would also recommend partnering him with one of Justin Jefferson or Adam Thielen, the former being the cheaper of the two this week. That should be an effective QB1+WR1/WR2 stack for you, as both receivers have performed in recent weeks.

This is the perfect game at the perfect time for the Vikings. They likely won’t win their division now, but they’re right in the thick of the playoff hunt.

RB – David Montgomery ($5,500) vs Lions

There are very few players that leave you as frustrated as Bears Running Back David Montgomery does. After a very slow start to his rookie campaign in 2019, he finished relatively strongly and gave us a glimmer of the potential we expected to see. Fast forward 12 months, and we are still here and still asking the same questions of David Montgomery. If you dig a little deeper though, you’ll realise that David Montgomery to his credit, had quite a tough schedule in the first half of his season.

That isn’t the case for the remaining games though, starting in week 13 against the Lions. The Detroit Lions have statistically the worst defense against the Running Back position. They’ve allowed the most rushing touchdowns (14) and the most receiving touchdowns (7) against Running Backs. They surrender a per game average of 33.8 points against the position. David Montgomery showed in week 12 what he’s capable of when given an opportunity to run the ball against a poor run defense. He’s also contributing out of the backfield, with 47 targets on the season so far. That number of targets puts him above Running Backs like Chase Edmonds and James White, who are primarily used on passing downs by their respective teams. This is probably the lowest you’ll get David Montgomery for again this season. I’m predicting a strong finish to his already steady 2020 campaign.

WR – Denzel Mims ($4,100) vs Raiders

The New York Jets are horrible. They really are. That said, they have to throw the ball to somebody, right?

Denzel Mims has certainly become one of those bodies in recent weeks. He has received 8 targets in each of his last 3 starts, and since his week 7 debut, he is the Jets most target receiver with 34 targets. He’s also had consistent yardage in each of his last 3 performances, with totals of 62, 71 and 67 yards. The only thing Mims is missing at the moment is the touchdowns.

This week, he plays the Raiders, who aren’t an awful defense against Wide Receivers. They’re just not a good one. They’re somewhere in the middle of the pack. I’m not completely confident with this pick. However, you are getting a Wide Receiver who is being targeted like a WR1 of late, for a cheap price of $4,100. It could be boom or bust, and if you avoid this one, I won’t blame you. But the extra funds it allows you to spread across your team goes a long way!

If you need the extra, Breshad Perrimen of the Jets is also priced at $3,900, and would be worth considering for much the same reasons.

TE – Jonnu Smith ($4,100) vs Browns

The Tight End position is one of inconsistency. Jonnu Smith is a prime example of this. He is capable of a double digit points haul from week to week, but can drop in a low single figure score when you least expect it.

Despite the inconsistencies, what you do get with Smith is Targets, and the chance of touchdowns. This season, Smith has 7 touchdowns, tied for the league lead with Travis Kelce. That’s impressive given Kelce commands almost 23% of his team’s targets, whereas Smith sits at under 15% on the Titans. He faces the Browns this week, who are allowing 15.7 Draft king points per game on average to the Tight End position. They’ve also given up 8 touchdowns to Tight Ends, too. A match made in heaven for Jonnu Smith this week!

D/ST – Titans ($2,900) vs Browns

Though the Browns are an 8-3 team and look destined for January football, I’m still not convinced by them. This is largely due to their Quarterback play. The stats on paper don’t look great for the Titans. They do allow a good number of points to Running Backs, the strength of the Browns’ offense. They’re also allowing good scores vs opposition Quarterbacks.

What the Titans do well is turn the ball over. They’ve had 11 interceptions this season, which is tied 5th in the League. They’ve also had 5 fumble recoveries. This one for me is a case of, don’t look too much into the stats. Go with what your head says and who you think will win this game and perform. For me, the Titans take this one and look impressive doing so. The bookmaker agrees too, as the Titans are considerably odds on to take the spoils here.

Introducing the starting lineup for DFS NFL week 13…

Finally, to round out the picks, here is my initially proposed team for DFS NFL Week 13. As always, this is subject to change come gameday:

QB – Kirk Cousins ($6,400) vs Jaguars
RB1 – Derrick Henry ($9,200) vs Browns
RB2 – David Montgomery ($5,500) vs Lions
WR1 – Justin Jefferson ($6,900) vs Jaguars
WR2 – Brandin Cooks ($5,600) vs Colts
WR3 – Denzel Mims ($4,100) vs Raiders
TE – Jonnu Smith ($4,100) vs Browns
Flex – Nyheim Hines ($5,300) @ Texans
D/ST – Titans ($2,900) vs Browns

Budget remaining – $0

Don’t ignore consistency

The price is high for Derrick Henry, but that isn’t a good enough reason not to have him in your lineup. This past week was potentially a banana skin for Henry and the Titans, as the Colts have a good Defense. They weren’t able to stop Henry running rampant, though. It seems of late, the Titans aren’t getting too cute with their play calling. It’s very apparent that they want the ball in the hands of their powerhouse Running Back, Derrick Henry, who has had 55 carries in the past two weeks combined for over 300 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns. Don’t overthink this one. The Browns are a good defense, but Derrick Henry is a different beast entirely.

Consider a stack

I mentioned earlier in my article that Cousins should be a reliable play this week in an ideal matchup against the Jaguars. Why not partner him with one of his top receivers in Justin Jefferson?

He’s had 3 great weeks on the bounce and finished week 12 with 70 receiving yards and 2 scores, with a total of 26.0 Draft king points scored. Jefferson now has 72 targets on the season, expect his target share to continue in this week’s showdown with the Jaguars. Adam Thielen is also worth consideration if he plays this week after missing week 12 with COVID. However, he is the more expensive of the two, and for that reason, I am favouring Jefferson. Both could quite easily perform though. They’re less WR1 and WR2, and more like WR1a and WR1b.

Best of luck with your DFS NFL Week 13 picks, Rush Nation. Be sure to listen to our Daily Fantasy Sport podcast here at 5-Yard Rush! We will be bringing you even more picks and opinions on the best player picks of the week.

-Nick Owen (@nickofwigan)

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