DFS Picks - DFS NFL Week 13

DFS NFL Week 14 – So much for MVP!

We are back again, Rush Nation. Welcome to DFS NFL Week 14.

Week 13 provided us with some great headlines. The Steelers finally lost their unbeaten record, dropping their Monday night game to the Washington Football Team. The Seattle Seahawks suffered a shock defeat against the New York Giants. That’s a result that could have huge ramifications on both the NFC East and NFC West come the end of the season.

We witnessed the overdue and inevitable benching of Eagles Quarterback, Carson Wentz. His replacement, Jalen Hurts, gave a good enough account of himself to retain the Quarterback reigns for this coming week.

Finally, we saw what could be the worst defensive play call of the season. The Jets look destined to “earn” the number 1 pick of the 2021 NFL Draft. An outcome that was only strengthened by the play calling of the now unemployed Gregg Williams. The Jets fans haven’t had much to cheer for at all this season. Hang in there though Jets, things can surely only get better.

The Week 13 Review

Speaking of things getting better, I wish I could say the same of my week 13 DFS performance and overall luck in this format at the moment.

Some late injury news for Jonnu Smith forced a pivot at the Tight End position, the natural replacement came in the form of Anthony Firsker. He served us about as well as you can expect a $2,500 Tight End could, finishing with a score of 10.10 Draft King points.

With the extra funds, I also opted to upgrade at Quarterback and Wide Receiver. I drafted in Aaron Rodgers, which sadly turned out to be a small error in judgement. Our original Quarterback, Kirk Cousins, outscored Rodgers 26.40 to 23.50.

The changes at receiver were a little more fortuitous. Cooper Kupp was drafted in to replace Brandin Cooks. I also took a chance on Henry Ruggs over his opposition receiver on the day, Denzel Mims. Both moves proved to be positive, with Kupp outsourcing Cooks 15.30 to 11.50. Ruggs also held up his end of the bargain, outscoring Denzel Mims 16.40 to 8.0.

The Beast was tamed

One of the safest bets of the week felt like Derrick Henry. He entered the week at 20.1% ownership, which was behind the two highest owned, Dalvin Cook and David Montgomery. They both hugely out performed Henry, though. The Browns pretty much dominated proceedings from start to finish. Due to the amount of 1st and 2nd quarter scores, the Browns built a lead of 38-7 going into the half, which of course impacted the game script and Henry’s usage. A disappointing week for a player being talked up in MVP conversations heading into week 13.

On the flipside of the coin, I was hugely impressed by David Montgomery’s usage and output. He was a very reasonable $5,500, and out performed his price tag almost 5 times over. He finished with a score of 27.10. It shouldn’t, and likely won’t surprise you to discover his price is higher this week. However, he still finds his way into my lineup once more, and he should find his way into yours, too. More on that a little later.

DFS NFL Week 14 picks

Moving on then, to my DFS NFL week 14 recommendations! The aim as always will be to seek out those players at a bargain price. The players who are potentially underpriced but could over perform their price tag.

As was the case in previous weeks, player prices will reflect Draft Kings prices. The points scored will also reflect Draft Kings point scoring, which differs slightly from standard Fantasy points.

QB – Justin Herbert ($6,800) vs Falcons

There’s a game this week that has all the hallmarks of a shootout, high scoring game. That is the matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Atlanta Falcons.

Justin Herbert finally had his floor game in week 13. Thus far this season, he has been absolutely stellar. Well in the conversation for rookie of the year, and he may well win that award. However, in week 13 he passed for only 209 yards and had 2 interceptions with no touchdowns. He finished the game with a score of 6.36 Draft King points.

This week, he has an easier matchup and defense to deal with, on paper at least. The Falcons currently allow an average of 26.6 Draft King points per game to Quarterbacks, ranked 32nd in the League. They’ve also given up 24 passing touchdowns to Quarterbacks, along with 3608 passing yards on the season. These are both elements of Justin Herbert’s game that he excels in, passing yards and touchdowns.

Last week’s performance may be more a reflection on the Chargers than on Justin Herbert. Expect a better performance from the former Oregon star in week 14.

RB – David Montgomery ($6,500) vs Texans

Last week, I recommended David Montgomery as a fairly budget option at Running Back. This week, he finds his way into the lineup again. The difference is, his price is higher, increasing from $5,500 in week 13 to $6,500 this week. However, he does warrant this kind of price tag.

He has an ideal opponent this week in the Houston Texans. They’re one of the worst defenses against Running Backs in the League. So far this season, they have surrendered an average of 32.8 Draft King points per game to the position. There is massive opportunity here for yardage and touchdown output. The Texans have allowed the most rushing yards to the Running Back position amongst all teams, and by a considerable margin! They have also allowed 15 Touchdowns to Running Backs.

David Montgomery also contributes to his team’s passing game. He averages between 4-5 targets per game. This is another area of the Texans Defense that they struggle to contain Running Backs in. On the season, they’ve allowed 550 receiving yards to the position.

In my opinion, you would be absolutely crazy not to include the inform David Montgomery again this week! The stars are all aligned for him to have another great showing after two consecutive 25+ Draft King point performances in a row.

WR – Tyler Boyd ($4,900) vs Cowboys

Another player that could exploit both individual situation and matchup this week is Bengals receiver, Tyler Boyd.

For those of you who recall, Boyd enjoyed a great start to his campaign this season. In fact, despite a drop in production, he has been fairly consistent over the whole season. That wasn’t a huge drop off in production either, so maybe i’m doing Boyd a disservice by saying that. The issue Tyler Boyd faces now, is that he doesn’t have Joe Burrow throwing him the ball. Burrow seemed to grow quite the connection with Boyd this season, which seemingly had Boyd on course to achieve his best season since entering the NFL.

With that said, the Bengals have lost A.J. Green (again!) for the remainder of the season. Tee Higgins, another standout performer in the receiving corps, is nursing a potential hamstring injury. The Bengals are starting to look thin at Receiver, so expect a large workload coming Boyd’s way.

He has the benefit this week of facing the Cowboys, who have given up the most touchdowns (19) to receivers this season. They also allow the third most points to the receiver position on average, giving up 43.80 points per game. Tyler Boyd could actually benefit from Tee Higgins recovering from his hamstring issue, as it will take some of the defensive spotlight and attention away from him come gameday. Regardless though, Boyd seems fairly priced considering that his work load share will likely be high in Week 14.

TE – Jordan Reed ($3,500) vs Washington Football Team

The Tight End position really is a difficult one to gauge at present. However, week 14 presents us with some nice value in the form of Jordan Reed. Following the 49ers loss to the Bills, their playoff hopes and aspirations are now looking out of reach.

George Kittle could return from IR to the starting line up any time now. However, given that the 49ers look unlikely to make the playoffs, there seems no sense in rushing Kittle back. This of course would open the door for the continued opportunity Jordan Reed is currently being given.
His production doesn’t leap off the page, though he did find the endzone in week 13. He has 16 targets over the past 3 weeks, with 2 double figure Draft King points scores during that time. If he is able to replicate this against a below average Washington Defense (against Tight Ends), then he presents good value for a $3,500 price.

If Reed is able to produce a similar stat line to that which he produced in week 13, that will provide us with triple the points value vs his price tag. More than enough output for a position that doesn’t score well in this format, or in Fantasy in general.

D/ST – 49ers ($2,700) vs Washington Football Team

To partner with our Tight End and form a stack, I am opting to go with the 49ers Defense. The 49ers looked a little exposed this week, as they struggled to get pressure on Josh Allen, who in turn exploited the 49ers in coverage.

I don’t see them having the same issues against the Washington Football Team. They don’t have a particularly good offensive line, it’s statistically worse than the Bills for that matter. Their offensive game is also much different to that of the Bills. The 49ers struggled to set the edge, allowing Josh Allen time to bootleg out of the pocket and make plays.

Alex Smith in comparison is quite static, and tends not to look as far down field, relying more on checkdown plays. The 49ers have some playmakers on their defense, especially in their linebackers and on their defensive line. Don’t let week 13 fool you, this is a sound, solid defense led by the play calling of Robert Saleh. I expect a response in week 14.

Introducing the starting lineup for DFS NFL week 14…

Finally, to round out the picks, here is my initially proposed team for DFS NFL Week 14. As always, this is subject to change come gameday:

QB – Justin Herbert ($6,800) vs Falcons
RB1 – James Robinson ($7,500) vs Titans
RB2 – David Montgomery ($6,500) vs Texans
WR1 – Keenan Allen ($7,700) vs Falcons
WR2 – Michael Pittman ($5,000) @ Raiders
WR3 – Tyler Boyd ($4,900) vs Cowboys
TE – Jordan Reed ($3,500) vs Washington Football Team
Flex – Jamison Crowder ($5,400) @ Seahawks
D/ST – 49ers ($2,700) vs Washington Football Team

Budget remaining – $0

Reliable Robinson

James Robinson is starting to pick himself in lineups now. He’s increased in price again, but is still reasonably priced at $7,500. This week he has a great matchup against the Titans. The Browns showed last week that they can be controlled by running the ball, something Robinson has done effectively all season. The Titans give up 26.1 Draft King points on average per game to Running Backs. Great news for James Robinson, as there isn’t really anyone in the backfield who would eat into that points scoring share should it become available during the game.

Value Receivers

Pittman and Crowder both find their way into my lineup, both in a similar price bracket. I’m including Pittman as I am hoping for a bounce-back week. I think the Colts-Raiders game has the potential to be a high scoring affair, which always tends to favour receivers and the workload they receive. TY Hilton had a good week last week, so the spotlight will hopefully shine away from Pittman a little this week. This may be a week where you can get him at a lower ownership percentage following a couple of sub-par performances.

I’ve also included Jamison Crowder. Despite being one of the more expensive Jets offensive assets (even priced higher than Darnold), he has the perfect matchup in week 14. The Seahawks are still the worst defense against Wide Receivers. They have given up the most receiving yards and most Draft Kings points per game on average to the Wide Receiver position. Crowder is also a good yards after catch receiver and appears to be the Jets most likely offensive scorer when the opportunity arises.

Best of luck with your DFS NFL Week 14 picks, Rush Nation. Be sure to listen to our Daily Fantasy Sport podcast here at 5-Yard Rush! We will be bringing you even more picks and opinions on the best player picks of the week.

-Nick Owen (@nickofwigan)

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