DFS NFL Week 9 – Halloween nightmare!
Halloween weekend has come and gone, and there were some shock DFS performances in week 8! Not in a good way either. Week 8, for me, was one of frustration and disappointment on the whole. There were some (albeit not many at all) good performances. However, my lineup was mainly made up of players who underperformed their expected production.
Onto the highlight…
(That’s the highlight, not plural)
A must start, at all costs
Going into week 8, I said Adams was a must have. Despite the hefty price tag, he was as close as you could get to a safe bet. His yardage wasn’t what you’d expect for Aaron Rodgers go-to Receiver, but it didn’t need to be. To combine with his 53 receiving yards, Adams scored 3 Touchdowns to take his season tally up to 7 scores in 5 games. This week, Adams is the Thursday night game. Given that we tend to focus on the weekend’s game, that means we will have a chunk of cash at our disposal to spread around the lineup. An easy transition in week 9 could be to use the funds on DeAndre Hopkins, especially if you are targeting a top end receiver. Make no mistake though, come week 10, all being well, Adams will be a must have yet again. Whoever you bring in this week is merely a placeholder at the stage!
Browns will be Browns
In fairness, I could include 80% of the team in this part of the article this week. My focus though is on the performances of Kareem Hunt and Jarvis Landry.
Last week, I called Kareem Hunt an almost automatic start. Priced at $6,900, his highest of the season, he managed to put in his second worst performance. He tallied 73 all purpose yards and wasn’t able to find the endzone. Hunt finished on 9.3 points which is beyond underwhelming for a Running Back with his price tag. Usually an efficient Back, with an average weekly score of 15.5 this season. Week 9 sees the Browns on a bye, and there are rumblings that Nick Chubb could be in line for work in week 10. Hunt’s value has taken a slight dent, but if his price reduces, he could be a good flex consideration in the coming weeks.
Jarvis Landry was the second of two Cleveland Browns that found their way into my lineup in week 8. He was also the second to disappoint. Given that Odell Beckham Jr was ruled out for the season the week before, week 8 felt like it could be a coming out party for Landry. Despite the additional workload, Landry only hauled in 4 of his 11 targets for 52 yards. Again, no score. Landry again should be in your considerations going forward, simply from a situational point of view. Mayfield does have a good connection with Landry, and despite it being a down-day, he’ll be worth considering at the right price in future weeks.
Week 9 DFS picks
So, moving swiftly on to my week 9 recommendations! The aim as always will be to seek out those players at a bargain price. The players who are potentially under-priced but could over perform their price tag.
As was the case in previous weeks, player prices will reflect Draft Kings prices. The points scored will also reflect Draft Kings point scoring, which differs slightly from standard Fantasy points.
QB – Ben Roethlisberger ($6,500) @ Cowboys
Despite being the Quarterback of the last remaining unbeaten team in the League, Big Ben finds himself reasonably priced this week. Let’s look at the facts. His weekly numbers don’t leap off the page, but week 9 see’s Roethlisberger face the Dallas Cowboys. They’re a better defence than they get credit for, but their offense ensures their defense sees the field more than they should. They have given up 17 passing Touchdowns, tied third worst in the NFL. They also give up an average of 20.4 Draft King points per week against opposition Quarterbacks. That’s a higher average than Ben’s current season average, which stands at 18.1 points per game. The cowboys are also going to have to defend the multiple weapons at Ben’s disposal. That’s a tall order, and one I don’t think they’ll be up to on Sunday evening.
RB – Antonio Gibson ($5,800) vs Giants
The Washington Football Team is a long way from being a competitive football team in terms of play off football. However, they’ve had some standout players this season. Rookie Running Back Antonio Gibson, has certainly been one of them. His weekly scoring has been steady, he is averaging 13.8 points per game this season. In the early weeks, he had to fight off some competition in the backfield, but he’s kicked on since and made the Running Back position his own. In his most recent performance against the Cowboys, he managed 128 yards on the ground with a Touchdown to boot. The Giants are a middle of the road defensive team against the run. The reason I recommend Gibson here however is two fold. Firstly I love the price for a feature Back. Secondly, the Washington Football Team are strangely still alive in the NFC East, despite a record of 2-5 for the season. The Giants have shown signs of life in recent weeks with two close losses on the bounce. If Washington is to come through this one unscathed, they need to find ways to get the ball into the hands of their skill players. Step up to the plate, Antonio Gibson. I fancy him to be involved often here.
WR – Marvin Jones ($5,100) @ Vikings
As things stand right now, Kenny Golladay is out of Sunday’s game against the Vikings. That’s the latest scoop coming out of Detroit, anyway. He is listed as questionable/doubtful on most platforms. If this is the case, then I can’t ignore Marvin Jones here at the price. Jones had a slow start to his campaign, but in his latest 2 outgoings, he’s had scores of 13.0 and 18.3. His most recent showing saw him find the endzone on two occasions. There isn’t much to read into this one. Matt Stafford has good chemistry with Jones. Add that to the fact the Vikings are woeful against Wide Receivers. They’ve given up 15 Touchdowns on the season, and give up a weekly average of 47.8 Draft King points against opposition Receivers. Everything points to including Marvin Jones in your line-ups here. This one feels very much like a “don’t overthink it” type of decision.
TE – Jonnu Smith ($3,900) vs Bears
A few weeks back, I wrote in this article that Jonnu Smith should be in your consideration every week. I even went as far to say he could be a flex consideration if he doesn’t find his way into your line-ups at Tight End. Since then, we’ve had some disappointing showings from the Smith. After averaging 17.52 in his first four games, he’s only managed a feeble 3.03 average across his last 3 games. The indicators say to leave well alone, but I think Smith is due a bounce back game. A.J. Brown and Davis are currently swallowing up a good share of the team’s targets, and even Tight End Anthony Firsker has had better showings than Smith of late. So why the recommendation? Smith is priced at $3,900, that’s his lowest price of the season. The Bears have allowed 5 Touchdowns this season against Tight Ends, and 422 receiving yards in the process. Despite the Bears defence being formidable, they’re a bottom third defence in the league against Tight Ends. I’m going to chance that Smith puts in a performance. If he doesn’t, he is cheap at the price for the potential upside he provides. Worth the risk.
D/ST – Titans ($3,000) vs Bears
The Titans double up! We partner Jonnu Smith with the Titans Defence. To be honest, there’s not a lot to like in the Defence/special teams category this week. Not unless you are willing to spend top dollar on the Steelers D/ST. This feels a happy medium though. The Titans Defence was part of the reason they had a deep playoff run last season and were able to turn their season around. However, I think it is fair to say it has underperformed this season thus far. I’m picking them here because I have absolutely no faith in anything the Chicago Bears roll out at Quarterback. Nick Foles has been serviceable at best in his starts this season. Mitchell Trubisky continues to warm the bench. Even when they look like they can run the ball successfully, they often don’t commit to this leading to some underwhelming performances by David Montgomery. The Bears have some nice Receivers that can stretch the field or test you underneath. It won’t be enough for them. I’m going with the Titans here because I think they win this game comfortably.
The DFS Selection Process
Finally, to round out the picks, here is my initially proposed team. As always, this is subject to change come gameday:
QB – Ben Roethlisberger ($6,500) @ Cowboys
RB1 – Antonio Gibson ($5,800) vs Giants
RB2 – Dalvin Cook ($8,200) vs Lions
WR1 – Marvin Jones ($5,100) @ Vikings
WR2 – DJ Chark ($5,200) vs Texans
WR3 – Justin Jefferson ($6,100) vs Lions
TE – Jonnu Smith ($3,900) vs Bears
Flex – Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6,100) vs Panthers
D/ST – Titans ($3,000) vs Bears
Budget remaining – $100
The Jaguars are in the hunt for a high pick in the 2021 draft. They have uncertainty at the Quarterback position this week, which makes me question whether or not DJ Chark should be in the line-up this week. I am going to include him though for now, because of his talent and price. At $5,200, this is the lowest he’s been this season by $300. He is the Jaguars premium receiver, he has found ways to produce and get open regardless of his Quarterback in the past. He’s also a redzone threat. The Houston Texans don’t convince me all that much either to be honest, so i’m happy to include Chark here. For now…
Justin Jefferson is coming off of a quiet performance. If he follows his own trend, that means his due a big game against the Lions. It could be a shootout this one, and that lends nicely to the Vikings receivers. Jefferson has established good rapport with Cousins, catching 31 of his 40 targets for 563 yards. He also performs better at home than on the road, as 367 of his yards and 18 of his receptions have come in Minnesota. I’m hoping for another big performance from the former LSU Receiver.
The Running Backs
Dalvin Cook had a huge week 8, and for that reason, he absolutely has to be included here. He is priced at a hefty $8,200, but feels at this stage like Davante Adams feels. MUST START. Detroit are also one of the worst defences against Running Backs. That spells bad news for the Lions, coming up against one of the Leagues premium Backs in week 9. Cook had 3 Touchdowns in week 8, and now has 10 in total for the season. Overlook Dalvin Cook at your peril.
To round out the selection process, we have Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The Chiefs did a good number on the Jets in week 8, but the one thing the Jets did well was stifle the ground game. Neither Edwards-Helaire or Le’Veon Bell were able to mount much at all in the way of rushing yards. There should be opportunities to flourish in week 9 though. This is another matchup dream, as the Panthers are poor against the run. They have allowed 9 touchdowns and 855 rushing yards against Running Backs this season. Despite not featuring much against the Jets, i feel the script will flip this week and Edwards-Helaire will get his touches once more.
Best of luck in week 9 Rush Nation. Here at 5-Yard Rush, we have an exciting development on the way around Daily Fantasy Sports. So stay tuned!!!
-Nick Owen (@nickofwigan)