How’s it going Rush Nation?! We are back! Week 14 is behind us, and we look ahead to week 15 with some interesting matchups on show in DFS.
Last week saw some really strong performances and success stories. Dalvin Cook stayed true to form and didn’t disappoint, Carson Wentz put in a respectable 2 TDs for 325 yards and no picks, and Running Backs Devonta Freeman and Kareem Hunt both provided us with the returns we were hoping for! The big shout out of the week goes to the Monday Night Football’s highlight reel WR, Darius Slayton. I felt he would provide value at his price, but 154 for 2 TDs was a welcome sight! Slayton has vastly become must-own in just about every fantasy football format and his production wasn’t at all hampered by the return of Eli Manning, if anything, he seemed to profit from this!
We look ahead now to week 15, so without further or do, here are my picks for this coming Sunday/Monday!
I am questioning myself on this one. Why is Ryan Tannehill, a QB who was once cut by the Dolphins and spent the early part of this season backing up Marcus Mariota, my safe pick of the week? Well, this for me comes down to the eye test and the opposition. Tannehill has 15 TDs with only 5 INT on the season, that’s 3 TDs for every interception thrown. Not bad at all! More impressively, Tannehill has only thrown 1 INT in his last 4 outings, with 9 TDs to show for his efforts. He faces a Houston Texans Defense that has given up the 5th most passing TDs this season and just hasn’t looked the same since Clowney joined the Seahawks and JJ Watt went down for the season. Houston also allows 4.6 yards per carry vs opposing Running Backs, and we know Derrick Henry is in rich form. I expect the Titans to extend their run of wins to 5 off the back of a good rushing Offense, with Tannehill looking every bit like the Franchise tagged or re-signed QB he is rumoured to be this offseason…
Kyler Murray is due a strong performance. Sadly, the Cardinals Offense and Kyler Murray both seem to have stalled since their BYE week. That said, The Cleveland Browns don’t convince me. Their Defense allows 4.8 rushing yards per carry, that ranks at 5th worst in the NFL. The reason I feel this statistic carries some importance is that we know Kyler Murray likes to use his legs. He’s averaging 5.8 yards per rush and has 4 TDs to his name to go with the 448 rushing yards for the season. On top of that, he has some quality support in the backfield with Kenyan Drake and David Johnson splitting snaps and carries. Cleveland’s Defense is arguably the strength of their team, with 11 sacks and 8 takeaways in their past 4 games, so it is a tough ask for Murray and the Cards. But, I’m just not that convinced by these Browns. I’m just not! This pick may be a bit of a hunch, but Murray is due a big game.
Not a difficult one at all this. Rashaad Penny is out, naturally, this will mean Carson’s workload increases further. Carolina has an awful Rushing Defense. Awful. They allow the second-most first downs on run plays, they have allowed 5.3 yards per carry and 24 rushing TDs on the season. Those last two stats rank the worst in the league. Carson averages 4.3 yards per carry, which is respectable, but even more importantly with Penny down, Carson stands to see work on passing downs. He’s a work horse Back and I think the Panthers will find it difficult to stop him this week.
Lindsay hasn’t replicated his impressive 2018-19 campaign this season. That said, he still has 4.5 yards per carry and 6 rushing TDs to his name. Drew Lock really galvanised the Offense against the Texans in week 14, and week 15 sees the Broncos up against a Chiefs Defense that finds itself struggling against the run. They rank #30 yards allowed per carry and have allowed 1790 rushing yards with 13 rushing TDs. That enough to put the chiefs in the bottom 5 in the league as a rushing defence. I’m hoping for a big game from Lindsay with this in mind, as $5,600 isn’t a bad price at all and he could potentially slot in as a flex option if you choose to go with 2 strong RBs in your line up.
It seems Matty Stafford is done for the season, as the Lions have another week of David Blough. That isn’t a great prospect. The saving grace for the Lions and Blough is that they are up against a Tampa Bay Defense that ranks as one of the worst in the League. 29 passing TDs against is good enough to rank 4th worst in the league, with 3625 yards allowed through the air, only one team has allowed more yards. The Bucs are even worse on the road too, allowing an average of 306 passing yards vs 247.2 at home. This all plays into Kenny Golladay’s hands, who had 2 TD grabs in his last 2 games and already seems to be one of Blough’s favourite targets. And why wouldn’t he be?! Golladay has 53 receptions for 1,008 on the seasons and 10 TDs. He’s one of the leagues best Receivers on his day, and I expect Sunday to be another one of those days.
At the risk of sounding repetitive, when I saw Darius Slayton at this price, I just had to include him! Miami has allowed 31 passing TDs on the season and Slayton is in RED HOT form. He has 4 scores in his past 4 games, and 2 of those games he hauled in over 100 yards. He’s been targeted 39 times for 25 receptions and that showed no signs of dropping off with Eli front and centre this past week. $4,700 seems a steal for a player in the form Slayton is in, as he comes in $400 less than he did last week and his lowest price since week 10!!
Garopollo finally seems to have found his stride (and arm) and this can only benefit the talented Deebo Samuel. Deebo is averaging 16.85 Draft King fantasy points over his past 4 weeks. It is steady scoring for a player that is in an Offense that seems to have found its rhythm. The Niners welcome the falcons, who bring with them a defence that allows an average of 281.8 passing yards on the road, and 389.8 total yards allowed. Their yards after the catch on completions also ranks #31 in the league, and Deebo is impressive in this stat with his 7.6 Yards after completion, ranking 5th best in the league. It could be a long afternoon for the Falcons secondary.
Much for the same reasons as Deebo Samuel, Kittle seems a safe pick this week. I’d probably even say that having both in your team would be a good idea if you can accommodate it! Kittle has impressive numbers. He ranks slightly behind Deebo Samuel with 7.4 yards after completion, which is still impressive compared with the league overall. But importantly, Kittle brings in a massive 80% of his targets, only two Tight ends have a higher catch percentage (Griffin 82.93%, Rudolph 81.4%). With this in mind, if you can fit him in your line up, Kittle seems a no brainer. On top of all that, did you see the run last week?!?! Come on!
Dallas boasts a decent enough defence, but this could be perfect timing for the Rams to play them as the Cowboys find themselves in a bit of a slump dropping their last 3 straight. Tyler Higbee seems to have made the most of his opportunity with Gerald Everett sidelined, and the same could happen this week as Everett has been ruled out of the game Sunday. In his past two, Higbee has 2×100+ yard games receiving, bringing in a TD for good measure. He has been targeted 19 times for 14 receptions. The Rams and Mcvay finally seem to have found an effective way to use Higbee in the Offense where they have previously struggled to integrate the tight end with their talented receiver corps and all-pro running back. This could be another under the radar sweep at $3,900, especially if the Cowboys continue to struggle offensively and the Rams D ensures that they get Goff and co plenty opportunities to put up points.
To tell you the truth, no Defense feels safe this week. That said, this felt a solid enough pick. The saints have 18 sacks in their past 4 games and 9 turnovers. For me, this comes down to what’s at stake. The Saints need the win and will have the dome on their side. The colts have faltered recently and have lost 3 straight. Strangely enough, the Saints D actually has higher average fantasy points scored on the road, but we know the dome is a tough place to go and I feel a bounce back this week following the last-second loss to the Niners. I’m putting this one down to logic and instincts, and both are telling me the Saints are a safe pick (I think).
I’m not confident about this one! And to go with that, they are no less cost-wise than my “safe pick”. That said, this feels like a risk-reward situation, and I’m sticking my neck on the line because of the form of both teams. Dallas has lost 3 straight for the second time this season. The rams have looked rejuvenated in recent weeks following their embarrassing loss to the Ravens, since then they’ve only allowed 506 total yards and have managed 11 sacks and 2 turnovers. The past two weeks have seen them accumulate 18 fantasy points against the Cardinals and 14 against the Seahawks who struggled to get anything going at all in LA in week 14. They’ve also only allowed 13 points in total over their last 2 games. This could depend on which Dallas turns up, but if the rams D shows up, it could be a tough afternoon for Dak and his Boyz.
Best of luck week 15 rush nation, and we’ll do it all again next week hopefully off the back of some more big performances!
– written by Nick Owen @nickofwigan