Don’t believe the hype!
With his debut article. Danny talks us through some overreactions within Dynasty. After all, Public Enemy said it best. Don’t believe the hype!
Fantasy football is a game lifestyle that we all need to approach using our heads. However, in reality, it’s our heart that usually ends up winning that scrimmage.
A one-handed catch, back-to-back-to-back touchdown weeks, or even a particularly exciting 5 Yard Rush can be all it takes for some of us to be ALL IN on a player.
We’re here to make sure you don’t waste your valuable draft capital and roster spots on a potential bust; à la JaMarcus Russell. The difference here is – I’ve watched the tapes, so you, and JaMarcus, don’t have to.
ROBERT TONYAN – TE – GREEN BAY PACKERS
During Aaron Rodgers MVP season in 2020, he had no weapons around him (Davante Adams, 1374 yards/18 TDs, Aaron Jones, 1459 all-purpose yards/11TDs, Jamaal Williams 741 all-purpose yards/3 TDs, and the second-ranked O-Line in the league). So he built up a wonderful rapport with former Wide Receiver turned Tight End Robert Tonyan.
Tonyan, who is a phenomenal athlete. Posted an impressive 52/586/11 stat line finishing as high as TE3 in standard formats.
Coming off a breakout year and achieving such positive numbers, it seems a little harsh to have him on this list, right? Wrong.
The hype for Tonyan went through the roof as he went from relative unknown to waiver wire darling overnight. The problem here is his insane touchdown rate covered up the fact that he only actually had 11 red-zone targets (19th among tight ends) throughout the season and failed to surpass 20 yards receiving in each of the last three regular-season games.
Even if the well-publicised Aaron Rodgers drama calms down and #12 is suiting up in Wisconsin this September. It would be safe to assume that a TD regression is likely.
Add this to sharing targets with star wideout Davante Adams, newly locked-in running back Aaron Jones, and the addition of rookie Amari Rodgers to a receiving corps starring Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. trust us and Don’t believe the Hype on Tonyan. The value just isn’t there.
MIKE DAVIS – RB – Atlanta Falcons
Shakira’s hips don’t lie. Unfortunately for you Falcons fans, Mike Davis’ quads do!
I’ve seen the photos, yes. Has it made me believe that Mike Davis is now worthy of being a starting running back? No.
Neither did his great season last year in the respite of a hobbled CMC.
Now, don’t get me wrong. Mike Davis is a good running back and fits Carolina’s scheme well when he needed to. Finishing as RB18 in standard fantasy leagues with career highs in carries (165), catches (59), all-purpose yards (1,015), and touchdowns (8).
He’s since joined NFC South rivals the Falcons on a 2 year, $5.5m deal. That’s $2m less than the deal the Lions have given to Jamaal Williams to backup D’Andre Swift.
Money isn’t everything though. I get that. However, the talk is that he will likely be going from CMC-lite to Derrick Henry-lite. Although his thigh muscles’ muscles would say he could handle that kind of work, his performances where he appeared burnt out towards the back end of the year culminating in an ankle injury that ruled him out in week 17, says otherwise.
Do the Falcons run the ball?
He’s also going to a team that has a really high-powered offense, but one that excels through the air.
On the ground last year the Falcons were 13th in rushing attempts with 409 but 27th in production offering up only 1532 yards and the second-worst yard per carry (YPC) numbers with 3.7. They also scored a rushing touchdown when they didn’t want to, but we’ll forget about that.
Production-wise, the Falcons were 30th in 2019 and 27th in 2018. Matt Ryan has also been sacked 131 times over the past three years. The protection for the QB and RBs alike is sparingly applied at best.
RB coach Desmond Kitchings this week saying ‘the door is wide open’ for any RB to take over. The potential for explosive plays in training camp from undrafted rookie Javian ‘PlayStation Hawkins could all hurt Davis’ stock as we approach opening week.
The signs are still good for QuadMike to be the RB1 to start the season down in Georgia. However, can Davis who, up until last season, had only 247 rushing attempts to his name change the fortunes of Atlanta on the ground and cement his place as an RB1?
Don’t believe the hype!
JAMAAL WILLIAMS – RB – DETROIT LIONS
Jamaal Williams is a great change of pace back and, when he gets rolling, wonderful to watch (see 2020 Week 7 against the Texans). However, a starting running back he is not.
Now don’t get me wrong. He’s joining a Lions team where the kit managers and ticket sellers may end up taking reps at Wide Receiver. So he’ll definitely see some volume in the passing game. However, there are way too many people buying into new Offensive Coordinator Anthony Lynn’s recent comments on Williams as a running threat.
After referring to Williams as a classic ‘A’ back that can run between the tackles and be left on the field for all three downs. Many of those that had taken D’Andre Swift in the early rounds of rookie drafts a year ago went into meltdown. Especially since some reports stated that it doesn’t look like he’ll get the bulk of the carries.
Even more so this week as the ‘Todd Gurley to Motor City’ rumours gained traction and Lynn vowed to go with the ‘hot hand’ at running back this season.
All of this, it’s just coach speak, or in this case, nonsense.
D’Andre Swift is the guy in Detroit. After showing flashes of class during a rookie season, that saw the Georgia alum rack up 521 yards on the ground and a further 357 through the air, despite only starting four games. We can expect even more from the second-year back.
Jamaal Williams will have some value as a flex play this year in Detroit and has a fantastic-looking O-Line to run behind. He’s the RB2 in a team that figures to play from behind, a lot, so don’t believe the hype on Williams and instead believe in Swift.
CAM AKERS – RB – LOS ANGELES RAMS
Phew, 2020 second-round running backs are safe after the Swift love we just witnessed.
Nope.
Cam Akers fans, look away now – or better yet, listen up and hit sell while you can.
I like Cam Akers. Heck, I like all the players on this list. (Even the Packers players… SKOL VIKES!) But we went into this saying we need to use our heads and not our hearts. My head is not having Cam Akers as an ‘every-down back’ or as high as the RB10 in fantasy this year.
But Sean McVay said he will be
Sean McVay also said that we should expect Akers workload to increase after an impressive showing on return from injury against Washington in week 5. Akers then finished the game with one snap and no touches. (Maybe it was to do with the fact that Akers had shown great ‘make them miss’ moves on a long run and then got hawked by Montez Sweat? Granted the guy broke the 40 record for linemen, but he’s 50 pounds heavier and had a standing start!)
It was a lethargic start for the former Seminole. Injuries have already played a big part in his young career missing games due to separated rib cartilage, a sprained ankle (which has also been an issue at the college level), and a shoulder complaint.
In his first real ‘workhorse back’ game, Akers had 21 attempts for 72 yards and a TD. He was also listed on the following day’s injury report as DNP (shoulder).
The running back returned for the Thursday night game though and went off racking up 171 rushing yards, but this was against the 26th ranked rushing defense of the Patriots.
A week later the Rams were embarrassed by the Jets and Akers suffered another injury, this time a high ankle sprain.
A return against the Cardinals in the final week of the regular season saw another 21 carries but only 34 yards.
But he was great in the playoffs
Akers did have two very convincing games in the playoffs. I think this is where his rising ADP has come from. A time when Henderson was placed on IR (ankles, eh?!)
There are things to get excited about with Akers’ potential. But don’t get too excited. This is a guy that lost work to, the now Dolphin, Malcolm Brown. Split reps with, apparent Gurley heir Darrell Henderson.
In 2020, Akers and Henderson split carries almost equally going for 145/625 and 138/624 respectively (over 100 carries less than the average of the top 10 running backs this year). Both players had a single 100-yard game each during the regular season and five games each where they broke 50 yards. Yet Akers is RB10 and Henderson is RB44 going into 2021.
There’s too much committee, hot hand plays, and injury worries here to have me taking Akers early and loving the idea. I just don’t believe the hype that Akers is a top 10 RB in dynasty.
In fact, this entire running room is seemingly one sprained ankle a piece away from bringing back Todd Gurley.
Are there any players we missed? Don’t believe the hype on someone else? let us know who. If you enjoyed Danny’s debut article be sure to check him out on Twitter @DynastyDan1. And keep rushing back to see more from the Dynasty team. make sure you’re also following the whole team @5YardDynasty
