DON’T LEAVE DRAFTS WITHOUT ‘EM
What’s good, Rush Nation? It’s been a minute now but we are ramping up the off season content as we are well into redraft season. The charity leagues are in full flow, season long home league drafts are about to kick off plus the 5 Yard Rush listener leagues are filling up. I’m here to help you with the guy’s you need to draft round eleven onwards to give you the edge over your league mates, towards the end of your draft.
There’s two ways we can look at the final 5/6 rounds of a draft. We’ve locked up our starters, so now what? If you’ve drafted high upside players already, with a real, boom or bust feel to them. You can lock in guy’s with an established role in their team, that you can plug in with less risk factor if your earlier selections don’t work out. Or, we flip the coin on it’s head. We’ve locked in our reliable week to week guys and now it’s time to look for the upside. Either way, do not fear, I’ve got you covered. Let’s start at Quarterback.
With 1QB leagues it’s not uncommon to “fade” for want of a better word, the Quarterback position. 2023 is potentially the perfect year to do so. We’re also seeing a lot of Fantasy coaches opting for a top tier signal caller due to the unknown of the third tier and beyond. But, if you do decide to load up on the other skill positions first, here are the best options available later on.
After Trevor Lawrence at QB8 there’s an almost three round drop off to Dak Prescott as QB9. Rookie Anthony Richardson comes in just before Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers, who come in as QB13 and 14 respectively. Both the former MVP with his new supporting cast and last years QB7 overall being taken in the 10th round, they’re great options to pair with the high upside Colts Rookie.
Sleeper Redraft PPR ADP via FTN Fantasy, based on a 1QB, 12 team league.
The first Quarterback available round eleven onwards is Daniel Jones. The 2019 sixth overall pick in the NFL Draft has had a shaky start to his career in New York. Starting out as Eli Manning’s back up, before leading the NFL in Fumbles as a rookie to missing time through injury in 2020 and 2021, it all came together under new Head Coach Brian Daboll in 2022, leading the Giants to the playoffs. In doing so, Danny Dimes had his best and well, first Fantasy relevant season finishing as the QB9 overall.
After declining his fifth year option for 2023 last year, Big Blue paid their franchise Quarterback in March and have signalled their intentions for the future. Similarly to Josh Allen in Buffalo(Daboll’s former team), Jones was utilised on the ground last year punching home 7 rushing Touchdowns. They’ve also got the return of Wan’Dale Robinson who looked promising before injury in his Rookie campaign. They’ve added a reliable pass catching option in star Tight End, Darren Waller. And, unanimous All-American, Fred Biletnikoff award winning, third round draft pick Jalin Hyatt further bolsters Daniel Jones’ arsonal for 2023.
With the direction the New York Giants are heading in, his utilisation in the rushing game and the new weapons, it’s hard to see any negative regression from Daniel Jones this year. He’s a bargain at an ADP of 122.9 and a fantastic option if you decide to wait on your QB1 selection in drafts. An honourable mention goes out to Geno Smith, who is once again starter in Seattle this coming season. He finished as QB5 last year and also has some exciting additions to his offense in Zach Charbonnet and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He’s currently going at an ADP of 124.9.
The landscape around Running Back’s in Fantasy Football has changed over the last few seasons as it has in the NFL. With more committees being rolled out across the league it’s harder for us to know which guy to roster. In 2020, both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt finished as a RB1 in PPR leagues, whilst being on the same NFL team. It hasn’t happened again since. With a lot of teams having two ball carriers that potentially will have a Fantasy impact we need to weed out who the 1a actually will be.
There’s a few instances here where the guy drafted later could out produce his team mate in Fantasy Football this year. D’Andre Swift(59.3) now in Philadelphia has been joined by Rashaad Penny(101.7) who has shown his ability to lead a backfield and Jalen Hurts taking valuable goal line carries. James Cook(88.4) could see passing down work in Buffalo but has been joined by Damien Harris(117.2) who is the more promising natural rusher that has unfortunately been hampered by injuries. Although, he comes from a shared load in New England too.
If you’re familiar with me in the Fantasy space, you’ll be thinking “here we go again”. But, Devin Singletary has never let me down. I’m back on the bull for another wild ride this year. Here’s why you should join me.
As a Rookie in 2019 he took the reigns from the legend Frank Gore. Only four scores on the season hindered his overall finish but was the clear lead back going in to 2020. In 2020, the Bills spent a third round pick on Zack Moss in the NFL draft, who as did Gore previously, ate into Singletary’s workload on the ground but Singletary finished above his team mate overall and again only had two scores on the year. Bare with us, we’re getting there.
2021 another shared load awaited Singletary, with Moss lingering around and Matt Breida now in town BUT he finally punched home a decent amount of Touchdowns(8) and went over 1000 scrimmage yards for the first time. He finished as the RB18 in PPR. Catching 80% of his targets. For 2022, the Bills added highly touted Rookie, James Cook. This smelt like the beginning of the end and his ADP fell yet again but the former Florida Atlantic rusher led his side with over 1000 scrimmage yards and returned a RB2 finish.
Houston we got a problem
Dameon Pierce had a steady Rookie campaign last year but has been joined by a guy who has never lost a job across his four seasons. Singletary automatically takes on the passing down work with Pierce finishing as RB30 in targets and RB42 in receiving yards in 2022. He was also RB23 in target share when Houston had limited pass catching options. Pierce was a day three selection in the NFL Draft with average college output.
Pierce is currently RB19 with an ADP of 51.1. Ahead of clear lead backs like Miles Sanders, James Conner and Rachaad White. He didn’t fully utilise his opportunity as a Rookie. And, therefore has ended up with Devin Singletary for company who is drafted a whopping SEVEN rounds later in drafts at an ADP of 136.6. A better yards per carry, yards per catch and higher catch percentage in all of his seasons then Pierce’s one so far. That warrants the argument for Devin Singletary taking over the Texans backfield this year or just being better for us as part of the committee then Pierce at his ADP.
Honourable mention to Jerome Ford at an ADP of 179.8. He’s essentially free in drafts this year. We’ve seen Cleveland utilise two Running Backs effectively. There’s still a Kareem Hunt-esque role to be had and Ford is worth a punt.
Over 50% of the first round in drafts this year is occupied by Wide Receivers. With ZeroRB and HeroRB builds becoming all the more common in full PPR and 0.5 PPR leagues. Before round eleven which is what we’re using as a benchmark here, 51 wideouts are selected. We will look at 2 different options here, for different reasons.
So, you’ve decided to zig when others zagged in drafts and ended up light at Wide Receiver. Thielen is a plug and play weekly WR3/flex option as we’ve seen in six of his last seven seasons. Three of which he ended up a WR1. He’s a potential target monster in the new Carolina offense lead by Rookie Quarterback Bryce Young. His yards per catch has been in the double figures since 2015. And, became one of the most reliable end zone options over the last few years.
With an ADP of 125.6 available in round eleven of your drafts you can go a lot worse then the reliability and consistency of Adam Thielen. Another option if you’re looking for a WR3/flex play is Tyler Boyd. Back in the high powered Bengals offense for an eighth season, Boyd has finished as a WR3 or better in his last five years. Available a round after Thielen at an ADP of 133.8.
Now, if the shoes on the other foot and you’ve loaded up on pass catchers, you’re going to want to shoot for upside at this stage of your drafts. A guy who can force his way into your weekly line up. With an ADP of 140.4 look no further than Skyy Moore. He has the best Quarterback in the NFL. He holds second round NFL draft capital and his playing time increased at the back end of last season. Which signifies he was gaining the trust of Patrick Mahomes. Including a 58% snap share and seven targets in the AFC championship his first career Touchdown in the Super Bowl.
There’s also 101 vacated targets left behind by Juju Smith-Schuster, who’s now in New England. Skyy Moore could go straight into the role Juju leaves behind from 2022. An honourable mention for the Rookie from the same team in Rashee Rice. Almost inseparable in ADP with Moore and also a second round NFL draft pick. One of these two guy’s is going to explode in Andy Reid’s offense.
Let’s dial it back to the start of this article where we spoke about Quarterback’s. In non Tight End premium leagues, it’s not uncommon to see this position “faded” until the later rounds. Travis Kelce is the only player commanding a first round pick in drafts from the Tight End position. If you’re not getting him, Mark Andrews or TJ Hockenson in the first three rounds of your drafts. Why not load up elsewhere? I can get on board with that.
There are 13 Tight Ends going in the first 10 rounds of drafts. TE10 and TE11 David Njoku and Dalton Schultz have the real chance of being the second option in Cleveland and Houston respectively. Tyler Higbee at an ADP of 134.5 going in round 12 is also another solid volume option for the Rams. Although question marks around their O-Line keeping Matthew Stafford upright are a scare too.
Under utilised in Miami under Mike McDaniel last year, Gesicki is primed for a bounceback season. Now in New England, who have always produced good pass catching Tight Ends, Gesicki could propel back into the TE1 conversation. With only Juju for target competiton, Mike Gesicki will be lining up in the slot and is a real end zone threat and could become a reliable target for Mac Jones. He only had a 9.1% target share in 2022 and was only targeted on 15% of the routes he ran. Tight Ends are blockers in the Mike McDaniel scheme. Gesicki was wasted for Fantasy.
At an ADP of 183.8 you can simply wait n wait before pulling the trigger on Mike Gesicki. The good thing is at this price, if it doesn’t work out he can hit waivers and you can get another free replacement. Honourable mention at Tight End goes to Hayden Hurst. Although the same upside Mike has isn’t there with Hurst, he could become a get out jail free card for Bryce Young, similarly with Adam Thielen as outlined above.
That is that, Rush Nation. Hopefully you find this useful and we can go win some ships together this season. You can follow me on Twitter – @LVenes1 where all my work is posted.