Draft round value recap-rounds 12-15

With the 2020 fantasy season behind us, I wanted to take a look at the ADP draft values from last season using the articles I wrote in May and June and dive into how things went. The question is did anyone smash their ADP value and did anyone fail to live up to the price paid in drafts?

I went through 15 rounds and picked one player from each round that I thought to be the best draft value for their ADP at the time. You can find rounds 1-3, 4-7 and 8-11 here.

The exercise wasn’t about filling a squad but picking who I thought was the best value in that round. Here’s how the final rounds of 12-15 went.

Round 12 – Hayden Hurst, TE, Atlanta Falcons

The Tight End picture in the NFL this season was as useful as playing blindfolded darts. Yes you might get treble 20 one week but when you think you had it all worked out you end up hitting the rim and have it bounce right back at you.

Hurst had only 5 weeks above 10 half PPR points but still ended up in the top 10. He had it all set up for him in 2020. He was out of Mark Andrews’ shadow and starting at a team that have enjoyed good TE play in the past. Hurst ended up finishing the season as the TE 9 having 56 receptions, 571 yards and 6 TD’s.

There were only 20 points separating Hurst in 9th and TJ Hockenson who finished as the TE 4. When I wrote the article, Hurst was coming off the board as the 17th TE so a 12th round pick and getting into the top 10 was ok. As I said before though, the TE issues were all over the place so scrambling into the top 10 was both somewhat easy yet also a good accomplishment.

There are still a few positives to keep in mind for next season. Hurst was targeted 5 or more times in 10 games, finished the season with an average of 10.2 yards per reception and of the six TD’s, one was scored in each of the final 3 games of the season.

As TE’s go, Hurst is still a player I will find myself being drawn towards to draft in the later rounds. For the final 4 rounds of a draft it’s a case of picking upside and hoping for the best. Getting a top 10 TE is a win this season.

Round 13 – Henry Ruggs, WR, Las Vegas Raiders

A rookie that had a lot of promise but didn’t really come up with the goods. Ruggs finished as the WR 91. He caught 26 receptions for 452 yards and only 2 TD’s.

His issue was volume. He only had two games all season where he was targeted five times. Every other game was under that. There were only two games all season where Ruggs went over 60 yards. These two games he went for 118 yards and A TD and 84 yards and a TD. Aside from these two games, his fantasy value was non-existent.

The two games he scored a TD in, Ruggs got above the 10 half PPR mark. Not including these two anomalies, he got above 5 half PPR points in 3 other games. The rest were below the 5 half ppr point mark just showing how much he struggled this year.

I know the later rounds are finding a guy that has a high ceiling but when Ruggs gave you more of his floor, then this was a draft value bust. Especially when you look at other rookie talent. Justin Jefferson in the same round managed to finish the season as the WR 6. Chase Claypool went mainly undrafted, finished as the WR 19 and Lamb who was going a few rounds ahead of Ruggs finished as the 20th scoring WR.

Even Jerry Juedy, who had QB issues all season, managed to finish the season as the 45th WR overall. That’s a good 50 WRs between them both. Ruggs has a lot to prove going into year 2.

Round 14 – Michael Pittman, WR, Indianapolis Colts

It was an up and down season for the rookie in Indy. After showing promise in the first two weeks, Pittman was then injured early in week 3 making him sit out until week 7. From there he was able to ease back into the starting line up and progress with Rivers and start to show us the potential he has going forward.

Pittman finished the season as the WR 83. He had 40 receptions for 503 yards and got 1 TD. He averaged 12.6 yards per reception but the more intriguing stat for me is his yards after contact. The likes of Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams were averaging around 5 and 5.2 yards after contact. Even Travis Kelce had an average of 5.6 yards after contact. Pittman however was averaging 7.3 yards after contact giving us an idea about his ability and strength.

As a late round pick the value was going to be hit or miss with Pittman. Unfortunately the injury hampered his season and so we didn’t get that chance to gain that value. Just one TD didn’t help his case and his volume wasn’t high enough throughout the season either to outweigh the lack of TD’s.

On the plus side, Week 10 was a highlight. 8 targets, 7 receptions and the only game he went over 100 yards. Pittman had more games over 10 yards per reception than he did below and and of those, after week 9, he only had two games performing under where he didn’t make 10 or more yards per reception.

The potential is there and streaming towards the end of the season would have given you some value but drafting him even so late on wouldn’t have given that value back that you needed.

Round 15 – Harrison Butker, K, Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs steady Eddie and reliable kicker didn’t quite do the business like we know he can this season. Butker ended the season as the 13th best Kicker. He was 25/27 on FieldGoals and 48/54 on extra points.

If you are drafting kickers, then they most likely come in the final round so grabbing the right kicker isn’t always easy to do but I thought an old reliable would have done the job. I obviously gave Butker the Fast Action Friday curse after I selected him to do well this season.

Streaming kickers is the way forward but I also admit it’s nice to be able to set and forget about certain positions and that includes the kicker. The kicker, like TE, was a tough one to call this season which is why it’s disappointing to see Butker drop so far down the list at the end of 2020.

The main issue was the volume of kicks compared to the previous season. The extra point attempts were up but you won’t be getting many points for an extra point in fantasy football. The bonus points usually come from distance kicks for a field goal.

In 2019 Butker kicked 13 out of 13 field goals from 40-49 yards. Compare that to 2020 where he kicked 3 from 5 attempts. That’s a huge difference in volume especially from a better scoring range. His total fantasy points ended up being 20 points less than the season before and his lowest scoring season since he started in the league.

There you have it Rush Nation, a look back at the 2020 Draft value picks I made back in May and how they performed. A mixed bag of results with some players returning some amazing draft value.

Until next time, Keep Rushing

Pittsy – @PittsyNFL

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