Each Friday I will be walking you through some Dynasty buys and sells highlighting the players you should be targeting and shifting in your dynasty Leagues. As we’re heading into the playoffs I didn’t want to list you a load of winnow players to buy if you’re a contender and sell if you’re not. Hopefully, you’ve been reading or playing Dynasty long enough that you’ve already made those moves. Instead what I wanted to do this week was get you thinking a little bit. Sometimes the best move to make in Dynasty is the move against consensus. It comes with risk but if you can buy a player at a reduced price or sell at peak value it helps you build the long term dynasty.
This one may require you to bear with me a little here. Coming into this season Allen Robinson has been one of the most reliable fantasy assets you could hope for. In the four seasons when he has played 15+ games he has finished three times as a top 12 Receiver and once as WR37. Prior to this season, Robinson has averaged 14.8 PPR points per game. All of this whilst playing with maybe the worst list of starting QuarterBack any star Receiver has ever had to put up with.
Coming into this season there was a lot of positivity that Robinson may finally have a talented Quarterback passing him the ball. Unfortunately, that hasn’t played out. Fields struggled early and didn’t seem to make a connection with Robinson, instead favouring the Sophomore Darnell Mooney. To paint the picture a little further. Despite seeing a 21.6% target share and a 27.5% Air Yard market share Robinson has managed one top 36 weeks. Yes, you read that right one! He is averaging a paltry 7.8 PPR points per game. That’s good enough for the WR75.
Why would you buy?
So why on earth would you want to be buying an ageing Receiver coming off this sort of season? Two reasons. One is the price and two is the situation.
Beginning with the situation. Robinson is currently playing this season under the Franchise Tag. A situation he wasn’t particularly happy about! Reports all offseason had Robinson keen to secure one final payday and land a long term contract. A star Receiver unhappy coming into the year is never a recipe for success. It almost seems Robinson decided that 2022 and finding a new home was his focus. It’s the reason he’s been very cautious with his latest injury. I fully expect him to return to show what he has down the stretch in the hopes of securing a big payday in the offseason. I still believe Robinson is an elite talent who can win contested catches with his top-end body control and hands. PFF lists him as their overall number 6 free agent available in the upcoming offseason. Could we see Robinson land in Cleveland or perhaps back in Jacksonville as the target monster he has shown he could be? I truly believe he could.
In my survival kit, I value Robinson around a mid 2nd in Superflex Drafts. For me, that is the point at which I’m willing to assume the risk that comes with Robinson. However, the beauty is that I don’t believe you need to pay that. It’s not like you’re buying at peak value. Per the DLF Trade Finder recent straight-up trades include Robinson going for a 2022 3rd and Alex Collins. If you can sell the Robinson Owner on the fact that he’s washed you could get a potential WR2/3 for your Dynasty team at the price of a WR4/5. Oh also despite being in his 8th NFL season Robinson is still only 28 years old!
This one is me digging a little bit deeper and again is an absolute flyer. Harris is currently serving a three games ban following his DUI Arrest. In his 3rd season as an undrafted free agent out of Harris hasn’t exactly been a fantasy darling. Coming into the season Harris has reached double-digit fantasy points once in his career. This season he has reached that mark six times through eleven games finishing as a top 36 Receiver five times. That’s not exactly a track record to get excited about so why are we buying him? Well, when you dig a little deeper into some of the advanced stats Harris is a small sample monster. Yard per route run and targets per route are two of my favourite stats to assess Wide Receivers. Targets per route basically assess how often a player is targeted when on the field. And Yards per route run is an efficiency stat.
Yard per route run for WRs with at least 50 targets
- Deebo Samuel
- Cooper Kupp
- Davante Adams
- Deonte Harris
- Justin Jefferson
- Ja’Marr Chase
- AJ Brown
- CeeDee Lamb
- Tyler Lockett
- Diontae Johnson
Targets per route for WRs with at least 50 targets.
- Cooper Kupp
- Davante Adams
- Diontae Johnson
- AJ Brown
- Deonte Harris
- Tyreek Hill
- Keenan Allen
- Deebo Samuel
- Rondale Moore
- Jarvis Landry
As you can see Deonte Harris is some fairly illustrious company on both lists. Part of the reason Harris is so high is that he hasn’t been involved in a large proportion of the Saints passing route. He has been in on only 48.2% of routes.
This is absolutely a punt. Harris is a restricted free agent this offseason and if he can find his way to a more pass-happy offence he could potentially carve out a fantasy-relevant role. Only rostered in 63% of leagues per sleeper there is a chance he is on waivers in shallower leagues. If he isn’t I’d be trying to tempt him away for literally a bag of peanuts. I would be willing to go up to a future 3rd but I genuinely think you don’t have to pay anywhere near that and you can probably get him thrown into a larger deal for free.
Yes, this may seem crazy. I am a huge proponent of building dynasty teams around young stud receivers. DK Metcalf is absolutely on that list. I really like DK Metcalf, he is my WR9 after all. However, I am definitely concerned. We have had more reports this week of locations Russell Wilson wants to be traded. To me, I honestly believe this is Wilson’s last season in Seattle. When that happens Metcalf’s price will plummet with no obvious air apparent at QB. This could be your opportunity to get peak value.
As we get closer to the offseason people will switch onto this and be concerned about DK’s value without Russ under Centre. So why wait for that to happen now could be the best opportunity to get out ahead. This is not a “Sell at all costs sell” you know I’m too value obsessed to recommend doing that. This is me saying to kick the tyres on a Metcalf trade. There will be someone in your league who values him as a top 5 WR. Don’t stick on your trade block/bait and expect offers to come rolling in. Be proactive but be smart. Quietly approach teams asking around other players then pivot to Metcalf. You could get a lorry load for him.
If I’m moving off Metcalf I’m doing one of two things. I’m either pivoting to one of the other elite six young receivers in Jefferson, Lamb, Chase, AJ Brown or Diontae Johnson (yes you read that right Johnson is now in that company). To make this move you’re probably having to add something on top. Or the alternative is to move down a tier and try to pick up two assets. You could be targeting Tee Higgins, Jaylen Waddle or Devonta Smith plus an asset for Metcalf.
As I said it may feel uncomfortable moving off Metcalf but personally I don’t want to be holding him when the sharp value drop comes once the Russ rumours pick up. I view Dynasty like a stock market and selling at peak value is always the move to make in my opinion.
Quick! Call the Twitter police! Yes, I know Javonte seems to be everyone’s darling right now and indeed he does have an incredible slate of games down the stretch. However, this is exactly the reason why you should be considering selling him. I am firmly in team always be selling Running Backs and I’m also the leader of the sell at peak value bandwagon.
Recently I have seen multiple people calling Javonte a top 5 back in Dynasty. That is quite the meteoric rise. Per DLF ADP Williams was the RB21 after the draft in May and has seen a steady rise up to the RB12 in November. Since then he had his huge breakout game and the price rocket has well and truly taken off. This could be Javonte’s Peak Value
I don’t want people to think I don’t love Javonte the player. He is my Dynasty RB8 and I think he could be an elite cornerstone for the next 3 years. However, I am always looking to sell high on hype. If I can get the three first I’ve seen quoted I’m doing that all day. If you’re a contender the more sensible move may be to move to an older player like Dalvin Cook or Alvin Kamara. My favourite move would be to buy similar production this year from a Cordarrelle Patterson type + multiple picks to restock the shelves for the offseason.
If you can’t sell Javonte for a top 3-5 price then absolutely hold him and enjoy the production. I personally just don’t think he will ever be a top 3 fantasy RB and so for me, it’s the ideal opportunity to sell at what I perceive to be peak value.