It feels like the season is settling down and value in dynasty is harder to come by!
Each Friday I will be walking you through some Dynasty buys and sells highlighting the players you should be targeting and shifting in your dynasty Leagues. If you are ever looking for prices and trade value be sure to check out my survival kit
Stop me if you’ve heard this before. Surely not Diontae Johnson again! Well, whilst his value in dynasty is incorrect, I’ll consistently hype him up. I will never understand why more people don’t value Johnson higher. Yes, he isn’t a size-speed freak. Yes, he isn’t a prototypical x receiver from the 90’s who will line up one side of the field and catch contested balls over corners. But what he is, is an elite route runner who consistently gets open with ease and commands an insane target volume.
Johnson is currently commanding a 28.6% target share. To highlight how high that is he is one of only 7 receivers to command over 10 targets per game. He isn’t a small slot receiver seeing a high volume of targets with a low aDOT. His air yards per target is at 10.1 for the season. Johnson is a volume king with the very best. But how is he at turning that volume into points? Well, he is currently sitting at WR25 on the season. However, he is at WR10 in PPG averaging 18.4 PPG! That’s more than CeeDee Lamb, Terry McLaurin, DK Metcalf, DJ Moore, Stefon Diggs, Deandre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley. Yet Diontae Johnson is consistently valued as a WR2 and behind all of those players mentioned. He is also younger than a lot of them!
I can already hear you saying but what about his QuarterBack next year? Well, it can’t get any worse! Big Ben is a fossil with half an arm. Whoever they bring is likely an upgrade. Diontae Johnson is a top 12 Dynasty Wide Receiver at WR2 prices. I value him around two late 1st or the equivalent to an early-mid 1st rounder. Yet I don’t think you’re having to pay those prices. If I can buy him as a contender for a 1st and a 2nd I’m dancing all my way to the title!
The Injured RBs
Travis Etienne, JK Dobbins, Cam Akers and even Gus Edwards. All have value as plug and play RB2’s at worst next season. Yet their value is at an all-time low. If their owner considers themselves a contender they could be looking at those players and thinking they could turn them into a winnow piece to tip them over the top. If I’m rebuilding I think they’re fantastic players to target to help you next year. However, it must be at a discount.
One of my favourite moves in dynasty is buying the injury dip. Of these 4 I value Travis Etienne and JK Dobbins the highest. I am nervous about Cam Akers given the type of injury although I do think the general consensus concern has gone a little too far. My favourite buy may well be Gus Edwards given the price you would have to pay to acquire him you’re likely paying nothing more than an RB3 or RB4 and he is a player who will return RB2 production next year whilst splitting the backfield with Dobbins.
I was really struggling for a player to sell this week. There was nobody jumping out that is overvalued or overperforming their volume that I hadn’t already talked about. Then it hit me. It’s got to be David Montgomery. David Montgomery had an incredible finish to the season last year and won a lot of people titles. Throughout the offseason everybody was screaming “it’s a trap” and his price stayed low. He then started the season well and his price started to creep up prior to the injury. He is still out with the injury but he is on the road to recovery and should be returning soon. So this could well be the ideal time to sell.
Why would you sell a player just before they return? Because I honestly believe his backfield mate is for real! Part of the reason Montgomery had that incredible stretch last season and started well this season was his opportunity share He was getting the whole backfield. Prior to the injury, he was averaging 70% of snaps and over 70% of the weighted opportunities. Well, whilst he was injured Khalil Herbert has shown that he belongs and isn’t disappearing anytime soon. If Montgomery sees a drop to around the 60% Opp Share. He falls to a middling RB2. I’m never a fan of volume-based RB2s and that is exactly what Montgomery will become.
I’m not treating this as a fire sale to abandon ship. However, If I can get a mid 1st in Superflex or pivot from Montgomery to Patterson or Elijah Mitchell + a 2nd I would make that move in a heartbeat. As I think it helps you compete now but also boots your long-term value in dynasty.