Hey guys, welcome back! Week 11 is done – we are so close to the end now, so you should probably know everything you should about the season and what sort of position you should be picking from next season.
This week was another brutal one for injuries with some significant names heading to the IR. The biggest name is Kyle Pitts, who has struggled to live up to his hype as TE1 and not likely to be back this season. Another rookie who has ended up on IR ins Wan’Dale Robinson, who tore his ACL and is going to miss significant time and even some of next season. If you can, buy him cheap now for a late 23rd 2nd or even 2 3rds and stash him in one of your IR spots. Another couple of mentions are for Melvin Gordon and Darrell Henderson, who have both been waived by their teams. To me, these have very little if any value at all.
I know, someone in the off-season who was lower than consensus on Kyle Pitts, is going to try and convince you to buy him. Hear me out, with his difficult season and now his injury, his value is dropping and he enters the buy category. A bit like Justin Herbert last week, Pitts was untouchable in the off-season, unless you were willing to part with at least 2 first round picks. Now, all of a sudden, his value has dropped. He is still a top 3 dynasty TE in my opinion. This season, Pitts has been slightly better than he was last year, but he has definitely held his own against other TE. He is #7 in targets amongst all TE with 59. He’s #2 in target share with 27.3%. Pitts is also #1 in air yards, averaging 77.2 per game and #1 in deep targets, averaging 1.3 per game. Despite all of these numbers, he is currently TE18 on the season. What lets Pitts down with his numbers is his TDs – he only has 2 this season so is #15 overall. What makes this worse is that he has 3 in his NFL career. However, he is still consistent. Atlanta Falcons are currently rebuilding and will be investing in a new QB next year. Pitts will benefit from this and hopefully it will only improve his work.
I would be looking to move up for Pitts, so potentially a player such as Dalton Schultz and a 23 mid 1st would be a move I would consider if I wasn’t contending.
Jamaal Williams should be one of the easiest sells: the guy is killing it as overall RB13 on the season and leading the NFL in rushing TDs with 12. Even when he had to contend with snaps with D’Andre Swift before his injury, he was still getting all the goal line work. Williams is currently a free agent in 2023 and has a lot of uncertainty around where he will be next season – whether it’s with the Lions or another team – but as he will be 28 at the start of the 23 season, it depends on whether anyone will take the risk on him. If they do take the risk on him, I can’t see him get a 3 down role – it will be more of a 1a or 1b.
Jamaal Williams is somebody you should be selling to a contending team. If i was in a position to miss the playoffs, I would send the same trade offer to all teams that would be heading to the playoffs on a first come first serve basis. Another strategy is looking at people who own players, such as Joe Mixon, heading to concussion protocol or maybe CEH owner heading to IR or somebody who has been left weaker at RB due to injury and trying to sell to them.
Williams is so difficult to price at the moment, a late second seems about the right value to me. If you can find the right person who is desperate for a RB to step in for the next couple of weeks, you may be able to push that to a mid second and hope for the best.
Thanks once again guys – enjoy week 12 and to all of my US readers, I hope you had a happy Thanksgiving!
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