Each Friday I will be walking you through some Dynasty buys and sells highlighting the players you should be targeting and shifting in your dynasty Leagues. If you are ever looking for prices and trade value be sure to check out my survival kit
Tannehill was one of my favourite dynasty buys towards the end of last season. He was coming off a great season but was still being valued as a mid to late QB2 rather than the fringe QB1 he is. Well, a slow start to the season hasn’t exactly made me feel smug about the value I scooped up. However, the underlying stats are suggesting he’s primed for some regression and a breakout.
Of QBs that have attempted 15 or more passes, no QB has a lower TD rate. Tannehill is at 1.3% compared to a career TD rate of 4.8%.
That may not sound like much so I’ll highlight what that means in points. Tannehill has thrown 1 TD. With his Career TD Rate, he should have thrown 3.6 TD’s.
Ryan Tannehill is currently the QB26 with 29.76 Points a massive disappointment. If you were to give him the TD passes based on his career TD rate. He would settle in as the QB13 with 40.14 points. About where we’d expect him. Regression is coming and that is only going to help Tannehill. If you can buy him cheap now for around a 1st in a Superflex league or even pivot from someone like Daniel Jones who is experiencing an incredible start to the year. You could be very happy when the season ends.
It feels slightly ridiculous suggesting Saquon Barkley is a dynasty buy. He is the most athletic Running Back we’ve seen in years and a true fantasy cheat code when fit. That point is the key to me here. When fit. He isn’t fit. Yet. We knew returning from his knee injury was going to take some time. Saquon literally passed a year since surgery this week. That means he was playing the first two games of the season within a year of tearing his ACL! I still firmly believe in Barkley and he is still my Dynasty RB2 despite the slow start. I would comfortably pay three firsts in a 1QB league.
When Healthy Barkley will get a full workload as we see from CMC. He isn’t at that point yet but it’s getting close. This could be your last opportunity to buy low on Barkley. If you can buy him low whilst the Barkley owner is getting frustrated now is the time to do it. I love pivoting from a Running Back that is producing like Aaron Jones or Joe Mixon. You’re buying back years and getting an uptick in long term value.
What a difference a year makes! A year ago DK was off to an incredible start as a top 6 Wide receiver on the seasons through three weeks and too many the new WR1 in Dynasty. DK has got off to a slow start this year and is currently the WR33 in PPR formats. However, his teammate Tyler Lockett is on a tear as the WR2. So what is the difference between the two? Honestly not a lot. Both have received an impressive 30.8% target share. Metcalf has run 58 routes to Locketts 57. Metcalf has received 2 Redzone targets to Locketts 1. However, DK has 113 receiving yards and 1 TD to Locketts 278 and three TDs. Those numbers are likely to balance out over the rest of the season.
Metcalf is a stud and whilst I couldn’t get on board with the overall WR1 hype. I do have him as a top 6 WR. If you can tempt him away for less than two firsts in a Superflex league that’s a win in my eyes. I even saw Cooper Kupp traded straight up for DK Metcalf this week. Kupp is performing incredibly but give me Metcalf 100 times out of 100
I’ll hold my hands up. I was lower than consensus coming into the season. If I had any Gronk shares I’d have sold him after week 1. However, after week 2 that sell is even more obvious. In fantasy football, one week is often a fluke. Two weeks and it becomes a trend. Through two weeks he has seen 4 red-zone targets and turned them all into Touchdowns. Even taking into account all of his Targets Gronk is still catching a TD on 33.3% of his receptions. That is unsustainable even for a TD monster like Gronk. His career-high in TD rate was 25% from his Rookie year and his career average is 15.5%.
If I don’t need Gronk as a weekly starter (and even if I do in most instances) I’m selling for picks or pivoting to another TE. A 3rd round pick or a Pat Freirmuth, Cole Kmet type would be a good point to start.
I really like Hollywood Brown. He isn’t the type of player I usually target due to his high aDOT and boom/bust nature. However, the reason I like him more than a Henry Ruggs type is that Brown is the clear number 1 target in his offence. Going back to week 12 last season Brown has produced 8 consecutive starts with double-digit fantasy points. Averaging 17.3 PPR points per game. For reference, that would have been the WR8 last year in Points per game ahead of DK Metcalf and Justin Jefferson.
So If he’s on an incredible run why would you sell? Because there is a very large shadow looming over Hollywood’s claim to the number 1 target in that offence. Rashod Bateman is due to return from IR anytime after week three. As soon as that happens Brown becomes a boom/bust option that I don’t like rostering. So if you can convince someone that Hollywood can keep this stretch going it could be a great jumping-off point before Bateman returns. If you can get a 2nd round pick I’d do that immediately.
This one may be unpopular. Chubb is one of the most talented backs in the league and is performing really well after signing an extension in the offseason. So why are we selling? Workload and efficiency. Chubb is currently incredibly efficient and I’m not sure it will continue. Using Scott Barretts Weighted Opportunities per game (which boosts the value of a target and reduces the value of rushes), where do you think Nick Chubb ranks? Outside the top 10? The top 20? No, he ranks 36th averaging 9.925 weighted opportunities per game. That’s below Cordarrelle Patterson and Melvin Gordon. Despite this minuscule number of opportunities, Chubb is currently the RB4 in PPR leagues buoyed largely by his 11.5% TD rate.
So surely the incredible efficiency on low volume is a great thing? Well, it could be. The way I see it Chubb has three potential outcomes over the rest of the season.
- Maintains the same volume but is due for regression based on the incredible efficiency.
- Maintains his efficiency but sees an increase in volume and absolutely blows up.
- Sees a reduction in efficiency but an increase in volume to maintain his current level.
Well, the truth is it could be any one of those three options. However, I’m not convinced the rushing volume is suddenly going to increase greatly. Cleveland is averaging the exact same number of rushing attempts per game (30) as last season. So is Chubb seeing a smaller slice of the pie? Not really. Last year he saw a snap share of 50%, an opportunity share of 45.6% and a target share of 5%. This year so far he is at a 55% snap share, an opportunity share of 48.3% and a target share of 6.3%.
You also need to add in the fact that Nick Chubb is now on his second contract an easy jumping-off point for all Running Backs.
So what would you want for Chubb? Well, I wouldn’t be selling him cheap. He is currently my RB7 in Dynasty. However, if I can convince people that Chubb is a top 4 option then I could get a haul. The easy pivot for me is from Chubb to De’Andre Swift who I have ranked above. You could also add something and pivot to Jonathan Taylor (who is a sneaky buy low). The other good pivot could be to Antonio Gibson. I’d need a small something on top of Gibson (maybe a 3rd or dart throw player) but Gibson is a lot younger and another buy-low option. Purely in terms of picks, I’d need around two 2022 firsts in a Superflex league (realistically I think you can get more)