Each Friday I will be walking you through some Dynasty buys and sells highlighting the players you should be targeting and shifting in your dynasty Leagues. Today we are focusing on TD regression and some players whose value could be swayed by the volume of TDs they’ve scored. If you are ever looking for prices and trade value be sure to check out my survival kit.
TD’s are king in fantasy football. They can turn an average week into a great week in literally seconds. However, TD’s are often flukey. Players can go on streaks of TD production and then go without for several weeks. It’s the reason we often talk about TD regression and the overall TD rate.
This brings me to Chase Edmonds. So far this year Edmonds has been impressive. He’s producing 15.4 points per game on 10 rush attempts and 5 receptions per game. Edmonds has finished every single week as a top 24 RB. Yet hasn’t had that one huge breakout game because he has yet to find the endzone. No RB in the NFL has had more touches but not found the endzone.
Yes, there is a reason why Edmonds hasn’t scored many TDs and that’s because when the cardinals get into the RedZone it tends to be James Conner getting the work. Conner has seen 9 rushing attempts inside the 10. However, Edmonds has only seen 4. However, if you take the eye test Edmonds has been far more impressive than Conner. On Sunday Edmonds also saw 4 attempts and a target inside the RedZone compared to Conner’s 6 rushing attempts.
If Edmonds starts to see an increase in RedZone usage TD regression will come in a positive way. If that happens he is going to explode in value. The RB11 on the season could sneak into that top 8 range with a few more TDs. Price wise I would start by trying to buy him for a 2nd. I would be comfortable paying more (not as high as a first) but I honestly don’t think you’ll need to go much higher.
Sometimes in Dynasty, you need to take a bit of a risk in order to see the huge return. Courtland Sutton is one of those guys for me at the moment. An Age 25 Receiver who has flashed in his career Sutton won’t come cheap. In my survival kit, I value him around mid 22 1st. The reason I’m suggesting Sutton as a buy is that I honestly believe the huge breakout is coming and he’s going to re-establish himself as an elite wide receiver.
So far this year Sutton has been impressive. However, he sat as the WR 47 (behind teammate Tim Patrick). Let me remind you that Sutton is returning from an ACL tear. An injury which we normally expect being an 18 months recovery before they’re fully functioning. We’ve seen it with Saquon Barkley and I expect to see it with Sutton.
From an underlying stats perspective, Sutton is seeing everything you could want. He’s got a 21.5% target share on the season, a 38.9% air yard market share as well as 3 RedZone targets. Yet he hasn’t scored a TD. TD regression is coming and he is going to score some TDs moving forward.
Oh and the last point. Denver’s QB situation isn’t great at the moment but I would bet that will change next season! Imagine a 26-year-old fully fit Sutton catching passes from Aaron Rodgers!!! Go out and spend the 1st now and you’ll thank me later.
Throughout the offseason, every player that’s older than 28 becomes a “Must Sell” in every league. Their price plummets as everyone tries to jump ship. However, if you’re doing dynasty right this is the ideal time to be selling those aging assets. People often switch from their dynasty brain into more of a redraft focus. In the offseason, you’d have really struggled to get anything more than probably two 2nds for Thielen. However, Thielen is currently sat as the WR11. People will think of him as a WR2 rather than the Dynasty WR3/4 he was in the offseason.
Furthermore, if you dive into the stats there is some reason to be concerned about Thielen’s current pace. Thielen is averaging a TD every 56 yards with a TD rate of 16.7% compared to his career marks of 127 yards and 10.2%. Now yes Thielen had a high TD rate last year of 20% but even with that unsustainable TD rate, he was seeing 62 yards per TD. This just shows that he is seeing a smaller part of the offence. He is seeing a smaller TD rate as well as fewer yards per TD. A lot was made of the potential for Thielen to see TD regression in the offseason but for me, the larger concern is the offence as a whole shifting away from him. Now could be the last opportunity to get peak value and potentially recoup a 1st for a player that is only declining in value.