Hey guys! Welcome back to this week’s Buys & Sells. Week 5 is already in the books and we are already praying for the season to slow down. Yet again, we saw a tough week for some big injuries – Darren Waller being the most significant. Hopefully you listened last week and tried to sell for maximum value but I would be flipping this on its head now and maybe looking to buy into the injury dip (obviously find out the severity of the injury first).
Another team that is worth paying attention to is the Carolina Panthers – they fired their head coach; Baker Mayfield is looking at missing 4 games; and Sam Darnold, who is eligible to return from IR, is apparently not even close to being ready to come back. The reason for making you aware of the Panthers is because 3rd string QB won’t be setting the world alight, so keep an eye on players like DJ Moore and Christian McCaffery. If the workload drops, so does the value so try and take advantage of struggling players.
Each week, with the help of one of the 5 Yard guys, we get you 2 buys and 2 sells. This week I thought I would bring the big man in to help out. Murf has come in with some great names so let’s see what we can do to help you guys.
Diontae Johnson came into the 2022 season as a WR tipped for great things after a solid 2021 season finishing as the WR 8 in PPR leagues. After 5 games, Johnson is yet to have that game that rewards owners for the value they paid for him. Speaking on behalf of someone who owns Johnson, we are starting to worry about his numbers. Let’s get into some facts about Johnson: he has been thrown 50 targets this year, 7th most in the league, he has 28.2% target share with the Pittsburgh Steelers. After week 5’s game, he has now run 182 routes so far, 12th most in the league. Even better numbers are his air yards which currently stand at 568 yards – 4th most in the league.
That is a lot of the good, let’s also mention some of the bad – he only has 3 red zone targets which is 38th, he also has very little YAC (yards after catch) at only 15 yards. This averages at 0.3 yards per target and is sat at 114th in the league. The Steelers finally gave the nod to Kenny Pickett and with the rookie passing the ball, Johnson is seeing his highest target share of the season. All that being said, I’m very keen to buy Jonhson going forward.
Right now, if I was a contender, Johnson would be a great add as a WR2/3 and would be looking to acquire him with a mid 23 1st. If I was in a rebuild then I would try to flip Marquise Brown and a 23 2nd for him, allowing me to keep hold of my first and upgrade my WR!
Murf has come in with an awesome buy and somebody I really considered myself. Alec Pierce had 8 receptions for 81 yards and 0 touchdowns for 16.1 FPTS in this past week. Pierce has seen a significant increase in his workload over the past weeks that has seen him move from a 4% target share in week 1 to a 16% target share in week 4, then to a sizeable 22% share in week 5. Pierce has also started to see more usage in the slot, which is attributing to this increased target share. This might be the last week you can get Alec Pierce before everyone else finds out he is going to get a significant amount of work every week.
Murf suggest a package of a 2nd and maybe a replacement ageing player.
Alec Pierce to me is perfect player for a rebuilding team he is cheap and could maybe grab him in a package deal. For example: maybe if I was looking to flip a vet player could get Pierce and 1st for the likes of Tyreek Hill.
Michael Carter is last year’s RB darling, who is someone that has managed to make it as a viable flex play each week in 2022. But I’m beginning to see a shift in workloads. His snap share has been reduced week after week, his rushing attempts have not seen above 11 and his receptions have reduced starting this season off at 9. Now this past week only receiving 2 targets. Breece Hall, the New York Jets second round pick, is starting to be a three down back as we all expected him to be. Carter has currently had 47 carries, which is 33rd in the league, he had 10 red zone touches which is 22nd in the league and has a total of 158 yards which is currently 40th in the league. Carter also has 3.3 yards per carry which is 60th. These numbers do not add up to a running back that I want to be rostering, so use the fact that he has just come off a good season and even more so a good game with multiple TDs and try and flip him for a pick.
Carter is currently valued at about a 23rd 2nd if I could get that I would be smashing it straight away!!! Other possible routes would be looking to the Hall owner and trying to maybe sell him as a handcuff, especially with how injury prone the RB position is.
KENNETH WALKER III
Ken Walker is the man taken at the top end of the 2022 rookie drafts that has struggled to get an significant work that is until now. Due to Rashaad Penny injury, Walker has been vaulted to the top of the depth chart over in Seattle. The fact he has struggled to gain any meaningful work until now, not to mention the potential coaching change on the horizon in Seattle, means you can get out now for at least what you paid for him, or even make a small profit and gain an extra pick or player plus the first for a team contending or desperate at the RB position.
Ken Walker is a sell for any teams that are 0-5 or 1-4. Cash in now while you still can. He was an educated risk and was worth the shot but after what Murf has said, flip him for that 23 1st and go again.
Thanks, once again, for taking the time to read this. See you all next week!
You can follow Paul on Twitter @paul_picken to keep up with his work. Keep your eyes peeled for more articles from our great Dynasty team, coming soon. Remember to tune into the 5 Yard Dynasty Livestream every Tuesday at 8pm (GMT or 3pm EST).