Each Friday I will be walking you through some Dynasty buys, sells and rebuild buys highlighting the players you should be targeting and shifting in your dynasty Leagues.
If you read or listen to my work you know that I like to zig when the rest of the community is zagging. I find it’s a great way to acquire value in Dynasty. Kelce has been a cheat code over the last 5 years. 5 TE1 finishes will do that. Whilst he is still the TE1 overall currently it is not at the great distance he traditionally is. People have started murmuring that he is aging and already seeing decline and it could be the time to sell.
Well, personally I think that his struggles are being overblown. The Chiefs offence has had some struggles this year. However, that is largely a turnover issue and not a production per drive issue. I have been on record as stating that I believe the Chiefs will turn it around and go on a tear to finish the season. If that happens Kelce will play a big part in it.
From a statistical standpoint, his aDOT has dropped slightly from between 8.9 and 9.6 across the last four seasons to 7.8 this year. His yards per route run has also fallen below 2 for the first time since 2015. However, he is still seeing a 22.3% target share which equates to a TE leading 9 targets per game.
There is no doubt Kelce is not the same athlete and player he was 3 years ago but that happens at 32. I believe Kelce will still be a league winner this year and likely a top 3 TE next season as well. If I’m a contender and I can get that at a discount I’m absolutely all over that. I still value Kelce as a top 24 player in Superflex TE premium leagues. If people are starting to get scared off by age and you can buy Kelce for a discount I would. As a contender you’re probably looking at two 1sts given your 1st will likely be late. But if you can pivot from a younger TE like Hockenson or Andrews plus a 2nd for Kelce it could be the move that solidifies a title for you this year.
Rookies that have disappointed
I am not a fan of rookies, particularly Wide Receivers, that disappoint in year one. Sometimes that comes back to bite me and I miss out on later breakout players but I’m a big believer in Rookie year production paving the way for future success.
So why am I suggesting you buy disappointing rookies as rebuild buys? Because we’re only halfway through the season. One strong performance can hugely affect the perceived value of a rookie. Look at how high people are valuing Michael Carter and Elijah Moore after strong performances against the Bengals and Colts respectively.
If you’re in a rebuild you can make the traditional moves of selling veteran players for picks and try to rebuild that way but chances are two or three others are doing the same. If you want to compete you need to raise your risk profile and make some calculated moves. This is why I always talk about rebuild buys. The easiest way to see a quick return is to target Rookies who were highly valued but have lost some of their shine through 8 weeks. You could see an immediate return on your investment after one strong performance and chances are some GMs could be feeling nervous about their rookie and looking to cash out.
Some names that fit the rebuild buys criteria include DeVonta Smith, Rashod Bateman, Zach Wilson, Rondale Moore, Amari Rodgers, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Dyami Brown.
What! What are you talking about??? I know it’s genuinely crazy to consider selling a rookie who is having unprecedented success through 8 weeks and looks like he could be one of the best Dynasty assets for the next 10 years! However, that is the exact reason why you should consider it! I will always maintain that when an asset reaches peak value you should consider selling for max value to insulate the loss of value and also spread your team value across a couple of assets.
Now I’m keen to point out that I absolutely love Ja’Marr chase. He is my WR4 overall behind Tyreek, Davante, and Lamb. He was my WR1 coming out this year and holds the fourth-highest grade ever in my rookie model as a 99.4th percentile Wide Receiver.
The reason I’m suggesting selling is that you could very well receive a haul that is obscene. The hype is real but the hype is off the charts. He is being ranked as the WR1 in many circles and whilst I have him in a tier alongside Lamb, Jefferson, and AJ Brown I would happily pivot to one of those other receivers plus assets. If you can sell at peak value (much the same way I suggested you sold DK Metcalf at this point last year) you can gain extra assets without affecting your team production or age profile. I wouldn’t be shocked if you could convince the AJ Brown owner to give you AJ Brown and a 2nd Plus to give them Chase right now.
Whatever you do, don’t sell for the sake of selling! This is not a fire sale, every item must go! This is a suggestion to ask around and see what people would be willing to pay. You may be surprised at the price some are willing to pay.