Each Friday I will be walking you through some Dynasty buys and sells highlighting the players you should be targeting and shifting in your dynasty Leagues. One change this week is is will be including some advice for those in a rebuild as well as contenders. If you are ever looking for prices and trade value be sure to check out my survival kit
Coming into the season Calvin Ridley was somewhat of a fantasy football darling. After finishing last season as the WR4 in points per game and with Julio Jones exiting the picture. Ridley seemed primed to explode and solidify himself as a top 5 Dynasty receiver over the next few years. Well, that hasn’t really happened. So far. The Falcons offence has struggled and Ridley even missed last week’s game in London due to personal issues. Now on his bye week, it could be the ideal opportunity to buy Calvin Ridley ready for him to bounce back.
So far this season the underlying stats for Ridley are there. He is seeing a 26.9% target share. Larger than the 25% he received as a career-high last season. He has seen a 47.5% Air Yards market share. Larger than his career-high 41% last season. And it’s not even a case of there are fewer pass attempts to go around. The Falcons are attempting 41.4 attempts per game so far this season in 2020 they were at 39.2.
So why is Ridley producing far fewer points? His catch rate is almost identical at 64% this year compared to 63% last year. There are essentially two reasons why the big drop from WR4 to WR26 in Points per game.
The first is the TD rate. Ridley has finished both 2019 and 2020 with an 11% TD rate. This year he is at 3.7%. If you gave him that 11% TD rate that would be worth two extra TDs. That extra 12 points would take him up to the WR14 in points per game on the season.
The second reason is a slight reduction in his aDOT. In 2020 Ridley had an aDOT of 15.1 whereas he sits at 10.8 this year. This is a concern because those deep shots are more valuable than the shorter ones for fantasy production. The good sign with the aDOT is that in week 4 against Washington Ridley saw an aDOT of 15.1 yards. So we could see that aDOT starts to increase as well as the number of TDs which should solidify Ridley as the elite fantasy receiver we all know he is.
Now currently on his bye, it could be the ideal opportunity to buy Ridley. I currently value Ridley as around two future firsts. So if you’re a contender it could be a great move to offer your 2022 and 2023 firsts for Ridley. The other move could be to move one of the overhyped players like Cooper Kupp or Mike Williams to snag Ridley. I’d trade Kupp straight up for Ridley and I’d offer Mike Williams plus a 2023 first to get Ridley. You may even be able to buy him cheaper than that currently but those are the prices I’d be willing to go to. If you’re looking to retool rather than rebuild the high upside of Ridley could also make him a great target.
I appreciate at this time of year not everyone is a contender and it can be a good opportunity to identify some players that you should be targeting if you’re in a rebuild.
One of my favourite moves in dynasty, if I’m not a nailed on contender and entering rebuild mode, is to target an injured player who I think is going to rebound to 100% but I can get an injury discount on. This can be a great move as it reduces your potential points but also is a very clear buy-low opportunity.
The first player I would be targeting in this scenario is Juju Smith-Schuster. Now he is quite a controversial player within Dynasty circles. After exploding to start his career and be valued consistently as the overall WR1 Juju has had a few lean years recently. However, still only 24 years old and with a top 12 and two top 24 seasons in points per game, he has an incredible track record to date. Plus Juju is a free agent again this offseason and I can’t imagine he’ll take a discount to return to Pittsburgh when they don’t have a QuarterBack.
Juju will likely be a prime target for many teams in Free Agency much like he was this year with rumours of the Chiefs and Ravens targeting him. Wherever he ends up Juju should solidify himself as a top 24 receiver for a few more seasons to come. Despite this, you’re not having to pay anywhere near top 24 prices. I currently value Juju as the WR28 and I’m higher than consensus on him. If you can buy Juju for two future 2nds or pivot from Adam Thielen, Julio Jones or Brandin Cooks to Juju to enable your trade partner to compete now whilst you focus on the future.
For two years Derrick Henry has been a huge consensus sell. People have been concerned about his age, his workload and his efficiency. Even this last offseason people were worried that Arthur Smith leaving town would impact him. Well, none of that has mattered, Derrick Henry is absolutely not from this planet and continues to carry a huge workload and absolutely destroy everyone in his path. So why on earth would he now be a sell?
Well, the truth is that none of what I mentioned has gone away. In fact, it’s only got worse. Henry is now 27 years old. His workload is now even more bonkers! Henry is averaging 31.2 touches per game!!! 2nd in the NFL is CMC who is averaging 22.7 touches per game. Just to give you an idea of how crazy that volume is, the record for most touches in a season was Jason Wilder in 1984 who saw 492 touches and Larry Johnson in 2006 who saw 457 touches. With this new 17 game format, Henry is on pace for an eye-watering 530 touches!
Yes, the workload is obscene and he could well break down at any minute. However, Derrick Henry may also be an alien who was built to run the ball and never break down. The reason I am calling him a sell is that the general consensus is finally flipping on henry. For the past two years, he hasn’t sat in the elite tier of RBs (CMC, Barkley, Cook and Kamara). Mainly based on his workload and lack of receiving work.
This season Henry is seeing a career-high 8.8% target share and people have started talking about him as a top 5 Dynasty back and are no longer calling him a must sell. This moment right now is your prime opportunity to sell and gain peak value on the asset.
Now I am not telling you to sell Henry cheap. I am not telling you to move him at all costs. What I am telling you is to take advantage of the narrative flipping. I have Henry as my Dynasty RB10. I value him as worth a little more than two future firsts. If you’re a contender I would be looking to move Henry for a younger RB that will still give me production but enable me to buy back years. If I can target D’andre Swift or Najee Harris. Or even move a tier down and get an Antonio Gibson plus an asset. I think those moves will allow you to compete now without losing the value of your assets. If you’re in a rebuild now is the opportunity to sell to a contender for picks or young Receivers to enable them to win now and you to rebuild.