We are four weeks into the NFL season and we have been given a large enough sample size at this point to begin seeing some trends form. There have been some massive breakouts, and some equally large busts this year. Once again we are seeing just how little we know about what is going on behind the scenes. What is particularly difficult about dynasty fantasy football leagues is balancing short and long-term expectations. Fantasy managers shouldn’t overreact to just four games, but you don’t want to wait to long to make adjustments either. Keeping this in mind I will be talking about some of the biggest dynasty risers and fallers through Week Four. I will be discussing how their dynasty football value has changed as well as what you should be doing with these players moving forward.
Dynasty Football Value Riser
Barkley’s dynasty football value has improved as much as anyones this season and he’s moved firmly back into my top five dynasty Running Backs. He’s been electric so far and is looking as good as he ever has in his career. He’s the RB2 in fantasy on the year according to Sleeper and is one of the few true workhorse backs in the NFL. I expect this trend to continue as well considering the lack of receiving weapons on the Giants. Furthermore, given the struggles of some of the other top-tier Running Backs, he is by far and away my RB1 for the rest of 2022.
In dynasty leagues, I normally recommend trading Running Backs who are on the verge of 26 and/or are in their 5th year plus in the league. However given the Running Back landscape it’s impossible to recommend shifting away from Barkley at this point. My dynasty Running Back rankings are a mess right now. It’s difficult trying to factor in both the age of some of the higher end producing backs, and the potential of some of the younger disappointing ones. Barkley is one of the few true difference makers at the position, and I could see him making an argument for the overall Dynasty RB1 in 2022. Unless your in a complete rebuild hold onto Barkley in your dynasty leagues. He could be entering an elite 2-4 year window of production as he hasn’t taken few hits in recent years.
Dynasty Football Value Fallers
Matthew Stafford has had an abysmal start to the 2022 season scoring less than 10.5 fantasy points in three of four games this season. This past Monday night he threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown and had a costly fourth-quarter fumble. Stafford had multiple other passes that should have been intercepted as well. On the year he now has 6 interceptions compared to just 4 touchdown passes. Unfortunately, it’s worth wondering if his elbow is becoming a serious issue as he just hasn’t looked the same this season. He will be impossible to trust in lineups until he begins to show improvement and will be a mid-tier QB2 for me against Dallas.
In dynasty leagues, it’s even more concerning as we don’t know if we are beginning to see signs of a long-term decline in his play. I think much better days are ahead for Stafford, but it’s hard to not be concerned. I’ve moved Quarterbacks such as Trevor Lawrence firmly ahead of him in my dynasty rankings. I have him in a similar range of players such as Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins but will move him down even lower if he doesn’t improve quickly. It would be easy to suggest selling Stafford, but he likely has no dynasty football value on the open market right now. Given that he’s just 34 years of age and very talented, Stafford is a hold for me. However, if he were to have a turnaround performance in Week Five I wouldn’t hesitate to see if there’s a buyer.
George Kittle & Darren Waller
I figured I could just put these two into one column as both have been extremely disappointing and are losing dynasty football value quickly. George Kittle’s injury history and usage in the 49er’s offense have been costing fantasy managers. Although he finished as the TE4 last season, 37.6% of his production came in just two games. This year with Trent Williams missing time at Left Tackle, George Kittle has been asked to block a heavy amount. This combined with the 49er’s low volume passing offense leaves George Kittle as a boom or bust option like most Tight Ends in the NFL.
Darren Waller on the other hand is running routes as he has the 5th most in the NFL for a Tight End. After a solid start to the year though his production has fallen off the last two weeks as he’s averaging just 5.3 points. Waller’s had just 10 targets in those two games, but he also has some key drops as well. While he’s capable of having monster performances, he averaged just 11.3 PPG in 2021 (6th in the NFL for Tight Ends). Still impressive, but not worth the premium draft capital spent to acquire him.
In dynasty leagues both players are still relatively young for Tight Ends. There is no way to sell them for a solid return at this point, but a breakout performance will come. They are too talented not to have some big games down the stretch. When they do I would be looking to capitalize on a fantasy manager who’s desperate for a Tight End. They still are among the best five Tight Ends in the NFL, but that doesn’t translate to consistent fantasy production.
That’s all for this week! You can follow Emerson on Twitter @Dynasty_Analyst to keep up with his work. Keep your eyes peeled for more articles from our great Dynasty team, coming soon. Remember to tune into the 5 Yard Dynasty livestream every Tuesday at 8pm (GMT or 3pm EST).