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DYNASTY OFF-SEASON SELLS – WIDE RECEIVERS

In the third installment of this Dynasty Sell Series, I will be discussing some Wide Receivers I think that you should be selling this off-season. Like in the two previous articles, I try to touch on some higher ranked players that should garner high value in potential trades. These both are extremely talented Wide Receivers, who could very well have outstanding 2022 campaigns. However, I think they all also carry a fair amount of risk, and I like to get out a year too early on a fantasy asset as opposed to a year too late. In this article I will highlight both the reason you should move on from these receivers, as well as possible trade targets. These next two links provided will take you to the first two parts of this series if you are interested.

Dynasty Off-Season Quarterback Sells
Dynasty Off-Season Running Back Sells

Davante Adams

Adams has had an eventful off-season, being traded from the Packers to the Las Vegas Raiders for a first and second round pick in this year’s draft. Adams joins his former college teammate Derek Carr in what should be a very formidable offense. Adams has been arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL over the last few seasons, leading the league in receiving yards since 2018 with 5,310 yards (per Statmuse). He has been an outstanding fantasy contributor as well finishing as a WR1 four times in the last six seasons. The reason he finds himself in this dynasty sell article is the combination of his age, and his new environment. Adams is 29 years old and this is typically a time I look to move on from highly valued receivers. DynastyLeagueFootball.com did a wonderful piece in their 2022 Dynasty Draft Guide on Wide Receivers overtime as they age. They found that only 13% of WR1 production over the last three years has come from players 29 years of age or older. Furthermore, only 19.4% of WR2s over that span came from this age range. Every player is different, but many outstanding players have declined quickly around the age Adams is currently.

Another reason I don’t love Adam’s situation this year is his fit with the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders should have one of the most talented offenses in the NFL this year, but I’m not sure that helps Adam’s fantasy value. He has not shared the field with another fantasy relevant receiver since Jordy Nelson back in 2016. Adams will join a receiving core that is led by Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow. Derek Carr is a great Quarterback, but he’s nowhere near as prolific as Aaron Rodgers. Carr will likely struggle to maintain each of these player’s high fantasy ceilings, as it could be a different guy leading the way each week. He also won’t be able to fit the ball in as tight of coverage as Aaron Rodgers. Getting the ball despite being draped by defenders was a perk Adams has enjoyed over the recent years. These factors will likely ultimately prevent him from getting the 150+ targets he’s had in Green Bay.

Overall, Adams is a big dynasty sell for me based on his age and current situation. As a player approaching 30 years of age he would have likely been a sell for me anyway. That combined with the spotty track record Wide Receivers have in their first year with new teams makes me completely out on Adams. He still is garnering top 10 WR value in many leagues, and I feel this is the last opportunity you will be able to get this value for him. I’d be exploring what small add on it would take to move onto a young receiver such as Tee Higgins or Jaylen Waddle. If you’re looking toward the future, a 2023 first and second in a Superflex league would be sufficient.

Tyreek Hill

Many of the same reasons that I put Davante Adams in this article apply to Hill as well. Hill although slightly younger than Adams, did recently turn 28 years old. As previously stated this is near the production cliff for many recent fantasy relevant Wide Receivers. Players such as AJ Green, Deandre Hopkins, Demaryius Thomas, and other have seen large declines in their age 29-30 season. This would be getting out a year early on Hill, but it’s worth exploring your options. The dynasty community is known to start devaluing players around this time as well. A 29 year old Hill is unlikely to garner as much trade value no matter what kind of season he has this year. His value will also start to decline relatively quickly if he were to get injured, or if he doesn’t develop a quick chemistry with Tua Tagovailoa.

Going from the Dolphins to the Chiefs is also a big concern for Hill. Gone are Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, and the dynamic offense that they were all able to create in Kansas City. Hill comes into a situation with an unproven young Quarterback, and a first year head coach. Tua Tagovailoa managed to put up only a 49.7 QBR in 2021, and was mediocre to below average in most other statistical categories. The coaching staff at times held the offense back to keep the ball out of Tua’s hands. It was reported that Brian Flores said he could not win with Tua as his starting Quarterback as well. An unnamed teammate also stated he was “wasting his career” with him as his Quarterback. His play, and these statements give me major pause when it comes to believing Tua can become a high level Quarterback in this league. With Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Mike Gesicki there won’t be any excuses anymore for Tua not to succeed this season.

Similar to Adams, age and the move to a new team are the main reasons I’m moving on from Hill. Kansas City’s offense, and Hill’s skill set were a perfect match. Although Tua threw the ball accurately deeper downfield last season, he didn’t attempt many of these throws. Hill will likely be asked to create yards after the catch on shorter passes, which is something he’s fully capable of doing. What I fear though is that Tua will have some very poor outings throughout the season, which will lead to poor fantasy scores from Hill. If I’m a Hill owner I would be looking to trade him for top 10 Wide Receiver value in exchange for another young pass catcher or Running Back. If looking to the future a couple 2023 firsts could be a possibility as well. Take your time and explore the market though, veterans will increase in value as we get closer to the season.

Thanks for reading everyone and if you enjoyed this article feel free to follow me on Twitter @Dynasy_Analyst and ask me an questions about your fantasy football team.

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