Hey, Rush Nation. What’s crackalackin? Welcome back to the Dynasty Roster Management series! You’re headed into the most important 4 game stretch of your season. Don’t panic. I’m here to navigate this minefield with you. You won’t actually blow up – but your dynasty roster might.
Before we get into it, a small bit of housekeeping. Any rankings, points or finish stats will be using 0.5 PPR scoring for all receiving positions and standard scoring for QBs.
Week 3 Recap
This is the week you need to be real with yourself. Start making a plan for each of your dynasty leagues. Create a spreadsheet, google doc, or even just a note/memo on your phone. At what point you’ll go into rebuild/retooling mode. What record must you have? Is it just injuries that could derail your season? How much will bye weeks affect you?
We finally get some real answers to confirm suspected trends and disprove others. Aiyuk finally got involved in the 49ers offence with Deebo still being a focal point. Over in Cincinnati, Ja’Marr Chase is showing he’s going to be huge in that Bengals passing offence. Whereas some highly drafted players have had a tough start to the season so far. Think AJ Brown and Robert Woods.
One thing to note, not all of these trends will keep up for the whole season. Players can have a completely different half of the season. Don’t Panic!
As mentioned earlier, you need to make a rough plan for each of your dynasty rosters. They don’t have to be set in stone plans, but goals or milestones which will determine the path your roster will take.
First of all, you need to consider how your league is set up. Are your playoff seedings determined by record or is it decided by points scored? It could be that your draft spot is decided by Potential Points (or max PF on Sleeper) which is the most points your team could have scored should you have played the perfect lineup each week. Basically, it’s what your team could have scored if the league was Bestball.
Unfortunately, writing this article to cover all different league formats would be too complicated. I’ll have to stick with the normal playoff seeding determined by record.
Following week 3, you’ll most likely have one of these 4 records: 0-3, 1-2, 2-1, or 3-0. These show how many wins and losses you have in the format: wins-losses. I’ll split this up to how to plan for a:
- Unbeaten season
- Mixed season
- Winless season
We’ll start with the teams who are thrashing their league-mates. If your roster is 3-0, you’re either absolutely smashing your opponents, or you’ve been really lucky with facing opponents on their poor weeks. You need to figure out which one applies to you.
Either way, I would hold all your assets (including any future rookie picks you have) for future use. There’s a very common mistake I see managers make with their winning rosters. They get sucked into the success. They think winning is the only way forward for their roster. Don’t be like them. If you buy everything you can only for injuries to hit your roster, this is the quickest way to be left in the wasteland that is the middle of the table.
My advice here: Make a list of players you think could be worth trying to trade for in the future. Maybe aging veterans who could be cheap. But don’t do anything hastily. Just hold. Don’t panic buy (this has two meanings in the UK right now). This could just be a fluke. Injuries could hit. Just, hold.
Next up, those with both at least one win and a one loss. This is not too dissimilar from the above situation. Obviously, if you’re 1-2, that looks a whole lot worse than 2-1 so it may be harder to come back from. But come back from it you can. You could have been unlucky by facing the highest scorers in your losses. Equally, you could have been fortunate by facing the lowest scoring teams to get your wins.
You need to determine which is your situation. So my advice? Make two lists. One of those on your team you would like to sell if you were to retool/rebuild. The other of those cheap players whose production you think is currently outweighing their price, or those who you think will have an increase in production soon.
Lastly, if you’re still winless, don’t fret. All is not lost just yet. Although it’s extremely unlikely, I have seen teams come back from an 0-3 start to make the playoffs. Once you’re into the playoffs, anything can happen. A freak game or unexpected injury to an opponent’s player can win you a matchup or two. Remember once you reach the playoffs, you only need 3 wins in most playoffs to be the champion.
Now I’ve filled you with hope, it’s time to bring you back down to Earth. I know I just said it is possible, but it is unlikely. I would be looking at why my team is losing in this situation. Are my top players not performing? Why? Is it a series of fluke games or is there a justifiable trend? Whatever it is. You need to take a look and come up with your own conclusions.
My advice here would be to make a list of what players you would sell if you go into a rebuild. Include prices in picks or players of similar value on those unbeaten teams. You may need this list very soon. Also, take note of how many other people are rebuilding/retooling. This will help you decide which route to go down if the time comes. Just remember don’t panic!
Thanks for reading! As usual, you can find me .@theFSAtweets on Twitter if you have any questions or want to discuss theories! I’ll be back next week with the next in the Dynasty Roster Management. Remember to take a look at our other great in-season content all over the website! Catch you soon Rush Nation.