Tight Ends

Dynasty Off-Season Sell Candidates – Quarterback

We are near the peak of the fantasy off-season with free agency behind us and the NFL draft right around the corner. It’s an exciting time for dynasty managers, as we are cramming for rookie drafts and shaping our 2022 rosters. This is one of my favorite times of the year to make trades as well. Values are so fluid in the off-season, and players rise and fall significantly in value with no games ever being played. It is important to consider every aspect of a player’s situation when making trades or drafting this time of year.

Be bold as rankings and trade calculators are likely to lag behind the most up to date information. Go out and grab that player that you think is valued too low, as there is a good chance they will rise in the rankings in the coming months. This is also a wonderful time to sell those players that you see losing value in the near future. In this series I will be examining Quarterbacks that you should be moving on from this off-season. These are those whose value I believe will drop in the near future, and who should be sold now at their peak value. Any reference to ADP is taken from DLF.

Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts has exceeded all expectations since being selected with the 53rd pick in the 2020 draft. Last season, he threw for 3144 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. Hurts added an additional 784 yards rushing and 10 rushing touchdowns. For fantasy purposes he averaged 21.41 points, which was good for sixth in the league. Well why is he in the dynasty sell article you ask? Due to the fact that he is a much better fantasy quarterback than an NFL one. If he doesn’t improve as a passer, it is unlikely that he holds onto the Eagles starting Quarterback job in 2023.

Although his fantasy numbers were fantastic last season, his passing left something to be desired. Hurts finished 21st in the league in passing yards, 14th in yards per attempt, and 26th in touchdown passes. Diving deeper than the stats, he was criticized for his lack of accuracy and arm strength. Additionally, he routinely underthrew receivers downfield, and missed open targets. Hurts makes up for a lot of his throwing limitations with his incredible dual threat ability. However, in a passing league I question if Hurts can create enough offense to compete with some of the more prolific Quarterbacks in this league.

Hurts only exceeded 215 yards passing in 5/15 of his starts, most coming against a poor defense. It is easy to assume he will progress as a passer, but as we have seen with Lamar Jackson that progress can be slow. Rumors of the Eagles moving on were already swirling after this past season. If Jalen Hurts is unable to take a step forward as a passer, it is likely the Eagles bring in another quarterback in 2023. His current ADP of 23.50 is far too high for someone who could be changing teams a year from now. I’d much prefer similarly ranked Quarterbacks like Russel Wilson, Mathew Stafford, or Trevor Lawrence.

Justin Fields

Fields is in a precarious situation going into the 2022 football season. He is going to be playing under a new coach, whose experience is solely on the defensive side of the ball. The Bears also let go of Allen Robinson, leaving Darnell Mooney as the only wide receiver of note. The Bears also have no first round pick, and have shown little interest in adding high profile weapons through free agency. To summarize, the Bears offense could be in rough shape this year at a crucial stage in Justin Field’s development. If Fields is unable to improve upon his poor 2021 campaign, there is a chance the Bears could turn to a new quarterback.

Last season went far from expected for the tenth pick in last year’s NFL draft. Fields ranked 31st in total QBR, 30th in completion percentage, 20th in yards per attempt, and dead last in yards per game. Matt Nagy failed to ignite the Bears offense, who have consistently ranked in the bottom of the league throughout his tenure. This didn’t change with Fields under center, as no one outside of David Montgomery or Darnell Mooney were able to provide consistent production. Fields will be expected to lift the offense despite its limitations. If he once again ranks in the bottom of the league as a passer, it will be easy for the Bears to justify bringing in another Quarterback.

Despite his talent as a runner and his clear fantasy upside, Fields is too big of a risk for me to acquire this off-season. With a late second round Superflex ADP, I’d much rather draft the safer options in that price range. In today’s game Quarterbacks don’t have years to develop like they have in the past. The immediate success of Mahomes, Herbert, and others has given young quarterbacks a short leash. Fields is going to have to perform this season to keep his job safe in 2023. I question if this is possible given the Chicago Bears current offensive personnel. In a low scoring offense Field’s will have a lower fantasy ceiling. As a result, it will be hard to live up to that second round start up ADP. Even with an admiral performance this year, I could see his value decreasing.

Davis Mills

It doesn’t feel fair to put Mills here as he exceeded all expectations in Houston last season. As a 3rd round pick in the draft, he was not expected to take on a prominent role in 2021. Nonetheless, he was given the starting job in week 2 as a result of an injury to Tyrod Taylor. In three of his first six starts he had a QBR below 29 (scale to 100). Houston decided to turn back to Taylor midway through the season hoping for better results. Taylor ultimately struggled as well through four starting opportunities, once again ceding the job to Mills. In his second audition Mills fared much better. He averaged over 300 yards per game and boasted a 9 to 2 touchdown to interception ratio through the final 5 games.

Mills is now the projected week 1 starter for the Texans after Taylor’s departure. This has led to him pushing into the QB2 ranks in dynasty drafts. That is too rich a price for me to consider taking a chance on Mills. Like Fields, Mills is also on a very poor team, and his fantasy upside will be limited because of it. The Texans also have the 3rd and 13th pick in this year’s NFL draft. The rookie quarterback class is considered to be weaker, particularly compared to 2021. However, any player selected at either of these positions would be given the starting job sooner rather than later.

Even if the Texans forgo a signal caller in this year’s draft, the Texans likely will once again be in line for a top pick in 2023. Mills has no doubt proven to be a very competent player. The problem is that he is in a conference with Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Burrow, Jackson, and Wilson. It is unlikely Mills will ever put the Texans in a position to compete with these Quarterbacks on a regular basis. Because of this, it is unlikely that Mills is the long term answer at the position. Treat him as an upside Superflex option who likely will only have higher value this season before settling into a backup role.

Do you agree with these sell candidates? You can follow Emerson on Twitter @Dynasty_Analyst to keep up with his work. He’ll be back with another article for sells at the Running Back position. Keep your eyes peeled for more articles from our great Dynasty team, coming soon. Remember to tune into the 5 Yard Dynasty livestream every Tuesday at 8 pm (GMT).

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