Rush Nation, I have finally entered 2020. It feels like a long time since the fantasy season has finished. However, it really has only been four weeks. There will be a more regular stream of content as we continue through the off-season. However, we just needed to get things planned with the podcast and start our offseason plans before we put articles out.
I am keen to share with you the results of my I Streamed a Stream project for 2019. I learned a lot from the process and I have managed to glean some interesting results out of it that I am going to share with you.
All points are PPR as that was the popular choice for this experiment. Below is how I finished streaming players owned 30% or below on ESPN.com prior to waivers of the week they were picked:
Quarterback- 339.3 points. Overall rank: 2nd
Running Back- 141.3 points. Overall rank: 33rd
Wide Receiver- 180 points. Overall rank: 30th
Tight End- 142.5 points. Overall rank: 8th
Kicker- 132 points. Overall rank: 5th
D/ST- 132 points. Overall rank: 7th
There are some standout results here. Quarterback being the most shocking. However Tight End, Kicker and D/ST were also extremely strong performances. I actually felt a little disappointed with my D/ST performance. I made a couple of bad picks towards the end of the season and that cost me.
What does this mean?
Over the course of the next couple of weeks, I am going to break down each room and what it means. There is a ton of data and learnings from this.
However, from a top level perspective, the first lessons to gleam here are positions of scarcity. Picking from a pool of 30% owned players every week, to finish with top 8 performances in 4 of the 6 positions show that these positions were not all that hard to replace week on week.
The biggest surprise was my weekly stream finished second in scoring at Quarterback, behind Lamar Jackson. To stream QB’s owned 30% or less and finish second in scoring shows that drafting a QB early, if at all, in a 1QB league is a terrible decision. I am not advocating not drafting a Quarterback. However, this stream performance says that by following our Waiver Wire articles every week should be able to still have a top half Quarterback performance based on matchups.
The fact of the matter is that entering the 2020 season, Quarterback is not only a deep position to pick talent from, but it is also as matchup dependant as D/ST. Maybe even more so due to the points scoring. Therefore drafting a Quarterback before the 9th or 10th round is nothing short of handing an advantage to your opponents in the draft. More of this in the Quarterback Streaming results article.
The other big takeaway is how difficult it is to stream a long term, serviceable Running Back and Wide Receiver is. These are positions you are going to struggle to stream value out of based on an entire’s season of work. Therefore, if you lose a WR or RB early on in the season, you will need to trade for one. Because if you are relying on a stream player week to week, you are basically looking at a WR3 or RB3 at best.
It also means the need to draft deep at these positions is incredibly important. Therefore, giving up an opportunity to draft a QB or TE over a WR or RB needs to be analysed and thought about before you pull the trigger.
What’s Next for this Column?
Over the next couple weeks, I am going to be writing about each of the positions. I will detail who I picked each week and give some analysis for each position when it comes to streaming, based off the data.
I will start off with Quarterback, before following up with Running Back, Wide Receiver, Tight End, Kicker and ending with D/ST.
There will also be some additional analysis based on some of the end of season totals for the position.
However, what will come out of this process is the Points Against Streaming (PAS) metric that I will create out of this column.
Points Against Streaming (PAS) Metric
Based on the data I have accumulated by streaming every week, I have decided to create a new metric. This will be to analyse all 2019 players and how they did above my streaming model. It doesn’t make sense to use the optimal stream option as nothing is perfect and people will not pick the best stream option every week for 16 weeks.
Therefore, I have decided to build this metric based off my stream rollercoaster week on week. I have worked out how to analyse each player, based on the games they played and broken down how they performed against their stream counterparts.
What is the reason for this?
The answer is truly two-fold:
1) It highlights position scarcity and how many players will finish above the streaming average. This also takes into account injury so players who finished below the stream model’s point total might end up over the PAS threshold line as their average per game will be higher. This is useful to know and truly understand position scarcity.
2) To help in drafts by giving you visibility about who to draft and when? I will eventually do a draft board based on PAS (minus Kickers and D/STs) and see how that mirrors a mock draft and ADP data. Ultimately, if I can provide you more data that will allow you to make a decision based on a tiebreaker, then it will only help right?
I hope this metric will become useful and something I will take into account during my drafts over the summer.
If you have any early questions, then please do get in touch via our social media accounts @5yardrush. However, until next time Rush Nation, Keep Rushing.