Right Fantasy Football Fans, we’re almost half way through the season. Shocking I know! After the coming week there is just six week until the fantasy playoffs. Last week I talked about trusting the process, I might change my process, the change will be WR2’s rule. My selections had the right math behind them. That math it appears wasn’t told to the Quarterbacks throwing to them last week. Marvin Jones took over the red zone work from an injured Kerryon Johnson. Jones was the number one Wide Receiver on the week with 38.3 in 0.5 PPR leagues. Games took unexpected turns for Receivers this week. Along with it, so did my selections. Through squinted eyes lets take a look at how I did.
Allen Robinson – projected points 12.8 – Actual 24.7. Up 92%.
Michael Thomas – projected points 21.1 – Actual 22.1. Up 4.7%.
Terry McLaurin – projected points 12.6 – Actual 2.1. Down 83.4%.
Dede Westbrook – projected points 11.9 – Actual 17.7. Up 67.2%
As you can see from above I got only McLaurin correct. That game was a wash out. literally people were slip n sliding trying to get to Jimmy G. As for Robinson, The Saints got out to an early lead and The Bears needed to throw the ball. Robinson had a decent day against Lattimore, raking up 87 yards and one touchdown. Michael Thomas did Thomas things on a day when he wasn’t meant to against a good Bears defence. albeit just a smidge better. When D.J. Chark had suddenly become a thing it was Westbrook who took the mantle of WR1 last week. He went over 100 yards for the first time this season in a game where Fournette was meant to be the dawg.
OBJ gets a matchup against the best defence in the league. The Patriots defence is currently on a historic pace when its comes to INT’s-Touchdowns given up. They currently have 18 takeaways compared to one touchdown given up through the air. ONE! Whilst their schedule has been a cake walk so far, The Browns aren’t exactly scary right now.
In fact OBJ is currently 4th in the League in target percentage with 28% of the teams targets. This is terrible news when you consider he has just one red zone target and just one touchdown this year. In half point PPR leagues he is currently a WR3. 28th overall amongst wide Receivers. To coin a Sam Darnold term Baker Mayfield looks like he is seeing ghosts out there at the moment. That isn’t good when the same team who spooked Darnold last week plays him this week. Beckham caught six targets for 101 yards and no score last time out. before that he had only 10 catches over three games for 103 yards, worrying I’m sure you’ll agree. Now he has the best Lock Down Corner shadowing him when he rolls into Foxborough, Stephon Gilmore should feast here.
I’ll just leave this here. The patriots DS/T in Fantasy is currently the number 17 player in most normal scoring leagues. Bill Belichick has the defence rocking and the way they dismantled the Jets was frightening. The browns O-line is in tatters and expect more Zero blitz’s leaving the McCourty’s and Gilmore to deal with OBJ. This cannot be a bounce back game, it just can’t.
Now one thing the two Receivers have going for them is that it looks like Kyle Allen will be under centre Sunday. Nobody, not even me wants an unhealthy and unfit Cam Newton throwing to them. Cam when fit is one thing but a broken Cam Kills the whole team. The Panthers are going for five straight wins after their bye week off. Allen looked good in London and its only fair he gets another stab at this under the lights.
The 49ers are currently 6-0 and have had an early bye. The team is built on running the ball and being brutal on defence. They are giving up a meagre 17.2 Fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. This is because the amount of time the 49ers have the ball for and the turnovers they are causing. They are giving up just 123 yards per game in total on defence. Couple this with the fact they allow only 26 real life points per game. Stingy to say the least. The Panthers offence runs through CMC and if he gets the majority of the yards, there won’t be many left for the two young Receivers.
DJ Moore is currently the Wide Receiver 27 in half point leagues. You certainly didn’t draft him to be this low down but he isn’t playing with Cam. However he is still the Alpha WR on his team. This means you are probably still playing him because of the draft capital you invested. Moore has one red zone reception and one touchdown on the year. He is averaging 13.7 FPPG with his previous two weeks seeing him hit 15 on both weeks. This week however I think he has a down week due to the stifling effect of the Niners.
Curtis Samuel is the gadget Receiver that the Panthers love to get involved. He is currently the 32nd Wide Receiver in Fantasy. Whilst this is worse than Moore, Samuel had a poor week five and six. he Averaged just 5.3 Fantasy points in both these weeks. Then in London he went off getting 22.7 Fantasy points. The fact they use him as a Running Back asset as well as a wideout helps his floor. His gadget abilities may be one of the big plays the Niners give up and this could see him have an ok day Fantasy wise.
If you have to start either of the Panthers Receivers I suggest its Samuel. However if you can afford to sit them I suggest doing so.
Bills Mafia get loud! This Bills defence and especially secondary are doing a fantastic job of shutting teams down. The team of 5 Yard Rush along with 5 Yard Quarterback Favourite Josh Allen are playing fun football. They are giving up just 16 FPPG to opposing Wide Receiver corps. They have allowed a league 2nd lowest 884 total receiving yards and just two receiving touchdowns.
The Bills welcome The Eagles into New Era Field. The fortress Buffalo call home. The Eagles aren’t the team we all hoped for Fantasy the season. Carson Wentz is struggling under centre and not having Djax is hurting him. Not being able to throw the ball deep and having that take the top off option will make the Bills life easier on Sunday. Tre’Davious White and Levi Wallace are playing lights out right now. White has three interceptions and two forced fumbles. Wallace has 27 tackles so far on the year.
Alshon Jeffery is the 26th Receiver in Fantasy in half point leagues. His target share over the season is 25% which rises to 33% in the redzone. Along with this he has four redzone targets and four touchdowns. since week four his target share has dropped from 33% to 20% and has steadily trended down during this period. Jeffery is averaging 15 FPPG but this is bolstered by two good weeks of over 23 Fantasy points in weeks one and six. His average target distance is 8.8 yards which leads him right into the jaws of the Bills Safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. Couple this with the fact White will shadow Alshon and this could be a miserable day out for the Eagles number one. Sit all Eagles Receivers if possible.
Heres to a better week eight for my Lock Down selections, it can’t get much worse!
Until next week, Keep Rushing
-Stocks @5yardrush
