DFS Picks - DFS NFL Week 13

NFL DFS Picks Week 8 2020 – Going for the king hatty!

We are back again Rush Nation… And we have another winner! Two weeks on the bounce!! Granted, again, it’s a small victory. In a NFL DFS contest of 5945 people, we managed a top 1000 finish. That was good enough to double our stake. Not bad. Those little wins keep you ticking over week to week. Time to take down the king!

There were some really good performances in the early games. Had this success carried forward to the Chargers game, we’d have been on for an even higher placing. Sadly that wasn’t the case. Let’s take a look at some of the hits and misses from week 7.

Someone call the Burreaux!

Before week 7, Joe Burrow’s best performance came on the road against the Browns in week 2. So it came as no shock to me that he replicated that form in week 7, this time hosting the Browns. Burrow went off! 3 passing Touchdowns, 1 rushing Touchdown, 406 passing yards. His pass completion was off the charts, completing almost 75% of his passes! He threw the ball 47 times. He needs to work on his ball security, 3 fumbles just ain’t gonna cut it, Joe. That said, I do feel this is more a testament to his offensive line’s failure to block anything that moves. Scoring a huge 38.64 Draft King points in week 7, I take my hat off to you, Joe Burrow.

Running out of Charge

I was all in on the Chargers last week. The Jaguars looked like a great matchup, so I had no doubts with my choices. Joshua Kelley, Hunter Henry, and the Chargers Defense/special teams. Those were the choices. Kelley had 53 all-purpose yards. Henry had 23 yards on 3 receptions. The Defense conceded 29 points. All 3 combined for a total of 21.60 Draft King points. To put the lacklustre performance into perspective, Calvin Ridley was the next lowest scorer in my lineup. He had 19.90 points alone. Los Angeles Chargers, I’m not angry, I’m just disappointed.

Onto my week 8 recommendations we go! The aim as always will be to seek out those players at a bargain price. The players who are potentially underpriced but could over-perform their price tag.

As was the case in previous weeks, player prices will reflect Draft Kings prices. The points scored will also reflect Draft Kings point-scoring, which differs slightly from standard Fantasy points.

QB – Carson Wentz ($6,200) vs Cowboys

Now, I have no faith in the Philadelphia Eagles. They are 1 of 4 teams in the dreadful NFC East. They have only 2 wins on the season so far. Fortunately for the Eagles, this week they play one of their awful divisional rivals. The Cowboys are in a bad position right now. They’re potentially down to their 3rd string Quarterback this week. They look like they’re on the verge of blowing it up and starting over.

The Eagles aren’t much better right now, but they are better. The Cowboys have given up 15 passing Touchdowns, tied for 4th worst in the NFL. They have only 1 interception to show for their troubles. Wentz had a slow start this season, but in his past two appearances, he has scored 30+ Draft King points. One of these games impressively came against the Ravens. Given the Cowboys current issues, dare I say, this seems a sensible pick.

RB – Jamycal Hasty ($5,000) @ Seahawks

This is one to keep an eye on, and it’s a risk. The 49ers are struggling at the Running Back position. Mostert and Jeff Wilson are both out. Tevin Coleman may be back this week, but if he is, more than likely won’t be 100%. That leaves Jerrick Mckinnon and Jamycal Hasty. Interestingly, when Wilson went down in week 7, the 49ers didn’t turn to Mckinnon as expected.

They instead allowed Hasty to pick up Wilson’s touches. He had 9 carries for 57 yards. That’s an impressively efficient 6.3 yards per carry. Despite the injuries, this is an offence that loves to run the ball. It’s precisely what this offence is built on. The risk here is that the 49ers may turn to Mckinnon as the more established Running Back. Coleman, if ready to go, may share the offensive snaps. Approach this one with caution. At a price tag of $5,000, you should be safe, as I suspect Hasty will get his opportunities. Seattle is pretty good against the run though, so be careful here.

WR – A.J. Green ($4,500) vs Titans

I didn’t expect to be writing A.J. Green’s name here anytime soon. Two weeks ago, Green looked washed. The Bengals looked like they had moved on, and that may well still be the case. That doesn’t take away from the fact that A.J. Green is a talented receiver who can make plays. His past two outings have seen him targeted a total of 24 times for 15 receptions and 178 yards. He has posted scores of 17.6 and 15.2 in these games.

For a receiver priced at $4,500, that’s not too bad. The Titans give up an average of 47.7 Draft King points per week to opposing receivers. They have also allowed 9 Touchdowns against receivers. The game script suggests that Cincinnati will have to air the ball out in this game. Green is here as an enabler. Having someone like A.J. Green in your lineup could pay dividends, and allows you to focus more budget on a star receiver like Davante Adams (more on him later!). At this price, he has to be in your consideration.

TE – Jimmy Graham ($4,600) vs Saints

I have recommended Tight Ends against the Saints in previous weeks because their defence doesn’t seem to defend well against them. Newsflash, that hasn’t changed much. They have allowed 378 receiving yards against Tight Ends, that’s not great but not awful. However, they’ve also given up 6 receiving Touchdowns to opposing Tight Ends. The two stats combined mean they are currently giving up an average of 19.5 Draft King points against Tight Ends. That currently is ranked 31st in the League. The Bears had their struggles in week 7 against the Rams, as did Graham. He was still targeted 6 times though. He’s always been a big red zone target. Look for Graham to bounce back here against a favourable matchup.

D/ST – Seahawks ($3,200) vs 49ers

The Seahawks aren’t a great defence. They have some nice parts. They today added Carlos Dunlap, that’ll improve their pass rush and take a little pressure off of their secondary. What Seattle does consistently, is find ways to turn the ball over. They’ve recorded at least 1 interception in every game so far this season. They’ve also forced and recovered fumbles against all but 2 of their opposition.

The reason I point out these two stats specifically is that this week, they face Jimmy Garoppolo. He’s had 7 passing touchdowns and 4 interceptions this season. He’s also had ball security issues during his career. Seattle has a pretty good Run Defense. If they can limit San Francisco on the ground, they force them to throw the ball. Even though Seattle is weaker in that area, that’s also arguably the weaker part of the 49ers offence. It could be a shootout, this one. Then again, it could also be an immediate response following the Cardinals loss, and trouble for the 49ers on the road.

The Selection Process

Finally, to round out the picks here is my initially proposed team. As always, this is subject to change come gameday:

QB – Carson Wentz ($6,200) vs Cowboys
RB – Kareem Hunt ($6,900) vs Raiders
RB – Jamycal Hasty ($5,000) @ Seahawks
WR – A.J. Green ($4,500) vs Titans
WR – Mike Evans ($5,700) @ Giants
WR – Henry Ruggs III ($4,900) @ Browns
TE – Jimmy Graham ($4,600) vs Saints
Flex – Davante Adams ($8,800) vs Vikings
D/ST – Seahawks ($3,200) vs 49ers

Budget remaining – $200

Again, we find ourselves this week with some money in the bank. “But why Nick?”, allow me to explain…

Kareem Hunt seems like an almost automatic start at the moment against teams that struggle against Running Backs. The benefit of a player like Hunt is that he will contribute in both Rushing and Passing downs. $6,900 is tied for his season-high price, but he’s averaging 16.4 Draft King points per game. Safe bet this one.

Mike Evans is due a bounce-back week. He’s had two consecutively poor performances, scoring 2.0 and 5.7 in his last two outings. In Mike Evans world, that means he’s due a 20+ point week. Godwin has been ruled out with a fractured finger, which potentially plays into his favour. The opposition this week for Evans, the New York Giants. Seems a perfect matchup for a huge performance. At $5,700, he seems a bit of a bargain here and is $500 lower than he has been at any point this season thus far.

Henry Ruggs is a bit of a punt, as he seems to be firing hot and cold at the moment. But I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt this week. That’s mainly due to the fact he’s playing the Browns. They’re ranked 31st in the NFL in terms of Draft King points given up against Receivers. Could be a big day for the greasy quick former Alabama star.

Speaking of poor defences against Wide Receivers, the Vikings have to contend with Davante Adams this week. He’s priced at $8,800, but I absolutely have to have him here. Adams averages 27.7 Draft King points per game this season. The Vikings have given up 12 Touchdowns and over 1200 yards against opposition wide receivers this season. Their 49.3 Draft King points against receivers rank just behind the Browns, 30th in the League. Adams + Vikings = money.

Best of luck in week 8 Rush Nation. Can we make it a hat-trick of wins in consecutive weeks? I’ll see you again in week 9!

-Nick Owen @nickofwigan

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