In this series, I look at ADP value in a 12 team, 15 round draft. Going into each round and finding a player that holds value at their ADP price. It’s not about filling up every roster spot, it’s all about finding a player that could help you win your draft and give you the advantage as you start the season.
The final 4 rounds of a draft may seem to be full of filler/bench guys but you still need to draft a guy so you might as well find the value players. Again, this isn’t about getting every position you need, it’s about finding a value pick for each round.
So here we have it, the final 4 rounds.
Hayden Hurst – TE – Atlanta Falcons
At last, a TE has made it onto the list. Hayden Hurst has an ADP of 135 and is coming off the Board as the TE 17. As round 12 opens up we are coming into the final rounds of the draft and I feel this is a good value pick for a TE.
Hurst might have been hidden away behind Andrews in Baltimore but he still managed to average 11.9 yards per reception over the 2 seasons he was there. Hurst was selected by the Ravens in the 1st round as the 25th overall selection.
He came into the NFL after 3 seasons in college averaging 12.8 yards per reception. After two seasons with the ravens as a backup, he is now heading to the falcons after they traded a 2nd round pick for him.
The Falcons have had a fantastic TE for the past few years in Austin Hooper. Halfway through the 2019 season, he was the TE 1 but unfortunately got injured. By the end of the season, even with injuries and not playing every game, Hooper still racked up 787 yards.
Hooper has now left and so has Sanu. Sanu moved during the 2019 season to go to the Pats. That left quite a few extra touches to be shared around and Ridley exploded with them. Those targets won’t be so easy to hand them to Ridley in 2020 which means Hurst can Benefit.
The TE play in Atlanta
The Falcons let Hooper go and he joined the Browns. Hurst will now be the No1 TE but knowing how the Falcons used Hooper is where we can find the value. Hurst isn’t a TE that can block well. But with the falcons that won’t matter too much. Hooper was rarely in blocking mode.
When I say rarely, you just need to look at Hooper’s targets. He was targeted 97 times in just 13 games. The fact that Hurst has been in the shadows drops him down the draft. But he’s stepping into a system where he’s got the potential to be getting 70+ targets. For a 12th round pick and TE, I’ll take that volume all day.
Right now Ruggs is coming off the board as the 150th pick overall and as the 59th WR. He might be a rookie but this late on in the draft he’s worth a late-round risk.
Ruggs was the first WR taken in the 2020 draft. The Raiders used their 1st round pick to take him 12th overall. After last season’s debacle for the Raiders, Gruden needed to get back on track with a fast wideout who can catch.
Boy is Ruggs fast. His 40 time at the combine was 4.27s, which is the 4th fastest time recorded at the combine since they started recording the time electronically in 1999.
After getting his guy, Gruden is going to do everything in his power to make sure Ruggs is the man. He won’t want to have another year where his star wideout ends up a bust. Because of this, expect Ruggs to be targeted a boatload to make sure he becomes the man.
His college career was slightly shadowed by having to play behind Jerry Jeudy. But that didn’t let it stop him having 2 seasons of over 700 receiving yards and 10 or more TDs in both seasons. In fact, over the course of Ruggs being at Alabama, he Averaged 17.5 receiving yards per catch over 3 years. That’s a better average than Jeudy.
Not only was he more efficient than Jeudy on a per catch basis but his after the catch ability is crazy. It’s all about his speed. Give him some room and he’s gone. Yards after catch are a big part of his game and as I said Gruden is going to make sure he has that opportunity.
In the 5 yard fantasy playbook, Stocks wrote about him as part of his rookie WR article and he gave him 3 big Pros.
- Next level speed.
- Great hands and natural catcher of the ball.
- Breaks lots of tackles.
Ruggs fits this offence nicely. There is some competition but that’s only going to help Ruggs. You may also have worries about Carr not being able to throw as far as Ruggs can run. Fear not, another reminder that he went 12th overall in this year’s draft means Gruden has to use him and make it work.
He will get the volume, which means you will be able to just plug him into your line up and have tremendous upside.
If you are wanting to take a late-round rookie then you will get your value with Ruggs all the way down at 150th overall. Compare that value to a couple of the other rookie WRs and you can get Ruggs a few picks later making his value increase.
Lamb is coming off the board as the 123rd overall pick and 48th WR. Whilst Jeudy comes off the board as the 134th pick overall and as the 54th WR.
Using all of this information, coupled up with knowing he’s walking into a great situation to be the Number 1 WR in the Raiders team, makes taking Ruggs a great value pick so late in the draft
The Colts’ brand new rookie WR is currently coming off the board as the 161st overall pick and as the WR 62. If you are looking for a late-round rookie to fill one of your remaining spots in your draft and you can grab Pittman then do it.
He’s walking into one of the best landing spots for a rookie. He won’t have a lot of competition to fight through to get his targets. T.Y. Hilton is the No1 guy in Indianapolis but after that Pittman can almost walk into being the WR2 in this offence.
Hilton is the guy. Problem is, he can’t catch every ball and the opposing team know he’s the guy, so Hilton will be getting a lot of double coverage. One other issue is Hilton has been struggling to make it through a full season in recent years. Parris Campbell has also found it tough going after his rookie season gave us injury concerns.
It looks like Pittman will be starting straight away. The expectation is that T.Y. Hilton and Pittman will play in 2WR sets, with Parris Campbell playing in the slot or coming on when they go three-wide. Because of that, Pittman could see a consistent amount of targets straight away.
Red zone bonus
Head coach Frank Reich told the media, “We envision Michael as being the ‘X’ receiver. We believe he can develop into that pretty quickly.”
Pittman is a big WR standing at 6’4” and just over 200lbs whilst having the athleticism to go with it. He ran a 4.52 in the 40-yard dash at the combine. Rivers will look to use Pittman in the red zone given that he’s big and strong making him a solid red-zone threat.
When it comes to fantasy, you either want volume or TDs to pad the stats. There is potential that Pittman could end up with both and when you can pick him up so late in the draft then his value could explode.
I can’t see Butker being available by the time you get to round 15 however his ADP has him coming off the board at 172nd overall which is in the 15th round. It also makes him the 2nd K drafted.
Some people are now forgetting the DST and K position altogether when drafting and look to pick one up just before the season starts. If you do want to draft a Kicker, then for me, Butker is the man you want.
Butker made 45 of 48 extra-point attempts and 34 of 38 field goal attempts. 3 of those misses were past the 50 yards mark but still made 3 others. 9 attempts were made between 20-29 yards. All were made. 10 attempts were made between 30-39 yards. Just one was missed. The most attempts came from 40-49 yards with 13. Butker made all 13.
Butker’s stats just highlight just how good he really is. Not only that but if you are in a league that gets bonus points for the yards made, then Butker is going to get the job done.
Moving into 2020
There are valid arguments that Justin Tucker is the number one guy out there but my preference is Butker. Butker had the most field goal attempts in 2019 and also led the league in conversions too.
This Chiefs offence is scoring points, which means they are going to be among the league leaders in extra points and are more likely going to get more field goal attempts. The more the offence is cooking the more opportunities Butker gives you.
You might be a player that likes to Wait on kickers, most people do, but Butker will be one of the, if not the best again in 2020. His volume will be high and everyone knows volume is key.
There you have it Rush Nation, my ADP draft values for the final 4 rounds. Hope you enjoyed the series.
Until the next one, Keep Rushing