In this series, I look at ADP value in a 12 team, 15 round draft. Going into each round and finding a player that holds value at their ADP price. It’s not about filling up every roster spot, it’s all about finding a player that could help you win your draft and give you the advantage as you start the season.
If you missed rounds 1-3 you can find it here.
Depending on your draft strategy, round 4 can be a critical time to get solid players on your roster that you know can get the job done.
Right now Fantasy Pros have Metcalf coming off the board as the 46th overall pick and as the WR 22. This puts him near the back end of round 4. The fact that he’s in the same round as his teammate Lockett doesn’t matter to me.
Actually, it’s a good thing. With Lockett in round 4, you can use that to your advantage. Hoping that people see Lockett as the No1 in Seattle, they can pick up Lockett whilst you go about business taking Metcalf who looks to push forward in his Sophomore year.
Why D.K over Lockett
Metcalf’s rookie season was positive. He was targeted 100 times, which was only 10 less than Lockett. He had 58 receptions for 900 yards giving him an average of 15.5 yards per reception. Lockett averaged less at 12.9 yards per reception.
Throughout the season Metcalf had 9 games where he had 60 receiving yards or more, which tied him for 10th most among Wide Receivers. On top of that, he bagged himself 7 touchdowns. Lockett only had one more with 8.
Metcalf also set the rookie record for receiving yards in a playoff game after he picked up 160 yards against Philadelphia in the Wildcard round.
After being picked up in the 2nd round of the NFL draft you could see the delight that Pete Carroll had knowing he had this monster of a WR on his team that was also fast.
He followed that up by getting Metcalf involved and targeting him as much as Lockett. Just to compare, It took Lockett 5 years to get 100+ targets. Which just so happened to be the year D.K. turned up and got 100 for himself.
With a full season under his belt and all the experience Metcalf has gained, he can only go from strength to strength. It’s also positive news after Seahawks offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer said he is looking to expand Metcalf’s versatility in the passing game in 2020.
That versatility will only improve Metcalf’s fantasy production which in turn increases his value.
Last season we were taking DJ in round one. It blew up in our faces and because of that, we are feeling a little stung by him and even think round 5 is a bit pricey. Well, I still think he has value. Definitely, not round 1 value but picking him up in round 5 can give us some.
Right now DJ is coming off the board 50th overall and as the RB 20. I can’t see us ever getting the DJ we knew from 2016. If we do then this is an absolute steal in the 5th and you’ll win your league. However, if he can stay on the field he still has a good game and value to him.
Moving to the Texans
Just in case anyone missed it this off-season, a pretty big trade happened. The Houston Texans traded away their top WR DeAndre Hopkins to the Cardinals and in and amongst the deal DJ was moved over to the Texans.
After a rough season over in Arizona, the move to the Texans is a good thing for DJ. A fresh start and with a good QB to make things happen, to play alongside, then things could be on the up for DJ.
2020 round value
The Texans use their Running Backs quite a bit. In fact, they used their Running Backs 397 times last season. As we all know with fantasy, volume is key. If you can pick up a player who is going to keep getting the ball and just keep pounding then the stats start to add up.
Last year the Texans gave Carlos Hyde 255 of those touches. As DJ is heading straight into the starting role, those touches are more often than not going to go his way.
Let’s not forget that Hyde got 255 touches when they had a top 3 WR on their team in Hopkins. With Hopkins out of the picture, there is going to be more work going around the team and as DJ can catch, that is only going to help his value.
Right now Swift is being drafted 70th overall and as the RB 27. I’m adding Swift for two reasons. 1. Going up against other rookies that have already been picked higher up the draft and 2. His RB1 potential. I know there is some work to do to get there but hear me out.
Swift knows how to battle for time on the field. Back in 2017, forging a path towards his end game of being an NFL starter, he found himself on a Georgia Bulldogs team full of talent. Unfortunately for Swift, ahead of him on the depth chart were 2 Running backs you might know. They were Sony Michel and Nick Chubb.
So sitting behind those two very talented players means no game time? Wrong! He made sure he was involved and got his name out there. Even with Chubb and Michel ahead of him, he still racked up 771 scrimmage yards and 4 TDs.
Once they were out of the way he stepped up and led the way. 2018 saw Swift tally 1049 rushing yards with 297 receiving yards and 13 total TDs. Last season in 2019, Swift rushed for 1218 yards, got 216 receiving yards and a total of 8 TDs.
This may seem low for a top RB in college. However, as always with the Bulldogs, the team was loaded with RBs which lessened his workload. This will give Swift an advantage going into the NFL with less wear on him giving him a fresher edge to start the season.
The Lions backfield
Kerryon Johnson has had injury issues and has struggled to stay on the field over his first two seasons in the NFL. He’s only played in 18 games in two years and in 2019 only averaged 3.6 yards per rush. Because of this, it seems that the Lions patience had worn thin waiting for Johnson to be the guy. This prompted a big move in drafting Swift at the top of the second round.
For me, you don’t draft a talent like Swift just to have him sit behind Johnson. They will use Swift and can only see him being the starter for the Lions week 1. Because of this he will lead the Lions backfield in touches and will lead the Lions RBs in fantasy points.
Lions history about to change
The Detroit Lions have not had an established runner since Barry Sanders left in 1998. Sanders managed an incredible 15269 rushing yards in his time at the Lions but since then, the Lions RBs have barely scratched 3000.
Next up were players like James Stewart and Kevin Jones…….Yeah, I’m sorry to say I didn’t know who these guys were. They both got in and around 3000 total yards each in the few seasons they were there. If you want more recent names, Ameer Abdullah took 35 games just to get to 1251 total rushing yards.
Just to show you how little impact Kerryon Johnson has had, he has played in 18 games and only rushed for 1044 yards. This right here is a massive reason the Lions grabbed the opportunity to take Swift.
The 2020 Lions
Moving forward, the Lions have a strong Offence going into 2020. Before Stafford got hurt midway through last season he was on pace to have a bumper year. I have him in my Bust to lust QB edition due to the talent he’s got and the talent he has around him. It was written before the draft so now they have upgraded to Swift this team will be cooking.
Having the likes of Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, Danny Amendola, and tight end T.J. Hockenson to throw the ball to will open up the field to be able to utilise Swift, even more, producing even more opportunities for Swift to take control of the backfield and dominate the fantasy Points.
The fact that Swift is projected to be an RB1 gives us even more value in the 6th round. You are getting RB1 value for a lot cheaper and that is massive when it comes to filling your roster.
Hunt’s ADP right now is the 84th overall pick which is right at the end of the 7th round. He’s coming off the board as the 30th RB. Yes, Hunt is behind Chubb on the depth chart but here are a few reasons to keep an eye on this RB battle.
Quite a few people suggested that the Browns would move on from Hunt come the start of the 2020 season. He comes with off-field baggage and the man that vouched for him has gone. However, they smacked a 2nd round tender on him and Hunt went and signed it. The Browns obviously have plans for Hunt with a tender like that put on him.
The 2019 season
Hunt didn’t start the 2019 season because of his baggage and missed the first 8 games. Once back in the team, Hunt started to take work away from Chubb.
From week 10 onwards, Hunt was used as a nice change of pace RB and predominantly a catching back. He churned out 464 scrimmage yards and of those, 285 were receiving yards. With Baker still uncomfortable in the pocket, a RB to dump the ball off to is quite useful.
2020 round value
Going into this new season Hunt is still behind Chubb until further notice. With Hunt having signed that tender, things seem to point towards Hunt being used more in 2020.
Whilst at the Chiefs he was a prolific scoring RB. Moving over to the Browns he is behind a good RB but could still be very useful. He’s only 24 turning 25 just before the season starts. Hunt is still a very good player.
Hunt picked up more receiving yards in his 8 games than Chubb got in the whole season. So we know that for a full season Hunt has the potential to produce in the passing game. The workload on Chubb last season was also pretty high. He attempted 298 rushes. With Hunt back, that is going to regress and with it so will his stats.
When given the chance, Hunt got a solid 4.2 yard per rushing attempt. That’s pretty good considering he was in and out of the line up with Chubb taking the workload. RBs like to get volume to get a feel for the game and churn out the yards. So being able to average 4.2 on a handful of carries a game is useful.
One last thing
If Chubb gets injured, Hunt will be the guy and will be a fantastic replacement. The Volume will be amazing for a 7th round pick. I know we can’t hold out for injuries and I’m definitely not wanting Chubb to get crocked. If Chubb does go down though expect big things from Hunt.
There you have it Rush Nation, my ADP values picks for rounds 4-7. Next time we dive into the nitty-gritty rounds of 8-11.
Until then, Keep Rushing
Pittsy – @PittsyNFL.