In this series, I look at ADP value in a 12 team, 15 round draft. Going into each round and finding a player that holds value at their ADP price. It’s not about filling up every roster spot, it’s all about finding a player that could help you win your draft and give you the advantage as you start the season.
As of right now Adams’ ADP is the 9th overall pick in the 1st round and coming off the board as the Wide Receiver 3. As much as I love Thomas, he’s now moved himself up to the top 4 overall and that’s just way too expensive. The WR 2 is Tyreek Hill. As good as Hill is, he is in a team full of options.
The RB position is anybody’s guess once the top 3 have been picked up. CMC, Barkley and Zeek fall in that top 4 with Thomas and once they have been picked, for me I can’t find a better value than getting Adams.
Finding value from a first-round pick isn’t easy. It’s the first round after all and no matter what pick you have, you expect to have great numbers from your 1st draft pick. Looking at Adams going at 9 gives you a chance to take that little bit of value.
Yes, everything is pointing towards the Green Bay offence going with a more run-heavy game. With Aaron Rodgers still at Quarterback, he might have something else to say. The fact that the Packers didn’t get Rodgers any weapons helps Adams out.
To top it all off, the Packers moved up to get presumably Aaron’s replacement. Rodgers, in the nicest possible way, will be slightly annoyed. That can only mean one thing. ARod is coming out all guns blazing and guess who’s he’s going to be throwing it to?
Volume is key.
Rodgers has a great connection with Adams and in that offence, there isn’t really anyone else that Rodgers can trust. 2019 saw Adams play in 12 games due to a midseason turf toe injury. Adams still managed to rack up 83 receptions for 997 yards.
Mr consistency here as Adams has averaged 12 yards or more per catch for the last 4 years running. We also talk about volume being key and Adams has it. The last 4 seasons Adams’ target totals are parallel to Thomas.
Adams was targeted 121 times in 2016, 117 times in 2017, 169 times in 2018 and targeted 127 times last season. Getting the same volume as a WR going in the top 3 or 4 overall but being able to pick him up at the back end of the 1st round is a win in my eyes.
Just one last thing for those who are not sure about leaving an RB on the board in the first round. You might see some experts saying you have to go RB in the first round but why. Adams at 9 overall is more likely to be a WR1 than the likes of Mixon at 10 or Chubb at 11.
I’d rather be taking the potential big upside of Adams in the back of the first round. Especially when you can pick up an RB like Jacobs near the beginning of round 2.
At the moment, Drake’s ADP is going at the 21st overall pick and as the 11th RB off the board. Round two gives us some intriguing players that still have the capability of being that top player. Being able to steal a talent like Drake who has RB1 talent so close to the end of round 2 is fantastic.
After having some bland years at Miami, the move over to the Cardinals for Drake was like a cork popping out of a champagne bottle. The stats are crazy. Whilst spending 3 and a half seasons at Miami, Drake got in the end zone 9 times. That’s 54 games with just 9 TDs.
Drake turned up in Arizona and scored 8 TDs in just 8 games. Over in Miami his highest rushing yard total for a full season was 644 yards in 16 games. Drake matched that in just 8 when he moved to the Cardinals and racked up 643 yards.
2019 was mixed for Arizona but there are a lot of positives to build on. The rookie QB Kyler Murray started to show his 1st round status and with another off-season to grow into the NFL and Cardinals system can only be good news. He features in my Step up Sophomore QB article.
With that, the Cardinals brought back Mr safe hands himself, Larry Fitzgerald for another season. On top of that they traded for one of the best WRs in the business in DeAndre Hopkins. Having super star WRs will make the Defence worry about sorting coverage, opening up the field for Drake to enjoy.
2020 season boom.
The 2020 season has so much potential for Drake to crack on from last season. Looking at what he did in the second half of 2019 with the Cardinals was fantastic. Doubling his stats to give us a full seasons projection, Drake would have had a nice 1200 rushing yards and 16 TDs.
That’s nicely on par with RBs going in the first round from 4th overall onwards. Being able to get a first round talent late in the second round is crazy and not something to be missed.
Everyone knows what happened in 2019. No Antonio Brown to be double covered, opening up the field for JuJu. No Big Ben to have chemistry with. No real offence, having to deal with 2nd and 3rd string quarterbacks.
JuJu ended 2019 with 42 receptions, 552 receiving yards, and 3 receiving touchdowns. Not anywhere near the season that everyone was so hyped up for. But You don’t move forward properly if you keep looking back and that’s why Smith-Schuster lands at value in round 3.
Right now, JuJu comes off the board as the 33rd player overall and as the WR 12. The other players going in round 3 have some floors to their value.
Players like Mahomes. Yes he’s a beast but you need to read the New 5 Yard Rush Fantasy Football Playbook. Murf writes about the gaps between the top QBs and the QB 12.
For me, getting a QB further down the draft that will get me a small margin of around 5 points per game less than 3rd round QBs and this lowers Mahomes’ value for me.
Add in other round 3 players like rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who has unknown variables being a rookie and then throw in injury concerns with the likes of Chris Carson and Tod Gurley and their values start to drop, making JuJu’s value climb above all these players.
The 2020 Steelers.
Big Ben has shaved! That can only mean one thing. He’s back throwing the ball and getting ready for the season. The connection between Big Ben and JuJu was clear to see in 2018. JuJu was playing in the slot and racking up some big numbers.
With players out wide JuJu was a tough mismatch for the defence and caught 111 passes for a massive 1426 yards. That’s for a number 2 WR playing in the slot.
2 seasons later and JuJu finds himself back in the slot where he plays best. The Steelers have some good options out wide after they selected Chase Claypool in the second round. That now opens up the slot role for Smith-Schuster to go back into and cause havoc in the secondary.
There you have it Rush Nation, my ADP values picks for rounds 1-3. Next time we dive into rounds 4-7.
Until then, Keep Rushing
Pittsy – @PittsyNFL.