Rushing Stats Analysis: Find the Gap Week 11

It’s getting close to the sharp end of the fantasy season, and hopefully you’re within striking distance of something rather special. Well maybe these rushing hints will get you over the line, whether it’s for cash or playoff entry. But how did the rushing selections from Week 10 get on?

BALTIMORE RAVENS – 23 carries, 94 yards (4.1ypc)

In a shock nobody saw coming, the Dolphins reared their heads and smacked the Ravens out of the sky. Filled with punts and turnovers, the match produced very few early points. As a result, the game stayed close The Dolphins kept enough pressure on Lamar Jackson to stop him from passing Baltimore ahead.

The Ravens’ overall rush average was several yards higher than Miami, but substandard play from several members of the rushing offense caused the Ravens offense to stutter at crucial times. 

DENVER BRONCOS – 18 carries, 96 yards, 1TD (5.3 ypc)

The Broncos also got stung by the game script as well. The tandem of Javonte and Melvin were making good headway on the Philly defence. Gordon got in for a touchdown, and Williams had another rushing score ruled out for a penalty.

There was plenty of positive to be taken from this game, including the yards per carry on the whole game. But the Eagles made sure of the win by absolutely crushing it on offense. 

PITTSBURGH STEELERS – 31 carries, 145 yards (4.7ypc)

Najee Harris also had a touchdown ruled out for a penalty on the play, so this was another team that missed out on a rushing score in this match. Harris was once again relied on to hammer home the rushing offense.

But the Steelers looked lost without Big Ben’s arm, and they struggled heavily against a Lions team – who finally pick up something other than a loss. 

WEEK 11 selections

The Rams and Broncos take a rest this week to recuperate and lick wounds. So who left can be the rushing selections this time around?

THE NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (vs. ATLANTA)

The Pats are on the cusp of a resurgance in this division. And the Falcons are reeling after a heavy loss to the Cowboys. This is the perfect time to hit them again.

REASONS TO CONSIDER

• I highlighted this offensive line in my Spotlight to the Season article, and I believe this line is finally in full run-block mode. The 3 week average is creeping up and has now surpassed 6 yards per carry. To be clear – that’s 6 yards a carry over the last three weeks! Phenomenal numbers. 
• Normally this high average is because the team don’t have many carries but they are very effective. This is not the case – the Patriots rushing volume has been consistently over 25 carries since Week 5. And more often than not, these are overly confined to one lead back. Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris have been the go-to guys, and I could see either of them starting against the Falcons. If they’re both available, we could see the forming of another deadly tandem. 
• This hasn’t just been against shoddy defensive teams either. This includes a very hot Browns team – and a Panthers team who have been super stingy with conceding fantasy points to Running Backs. And the Pats rushing offense tore them new ones.

THE TENNESSEE TITANS (vs. HOUSTON)

Without Derrick Henry, how could we even consider putting the Titans in here?

REASONS TO CONSIDER

• The Titans are in very good form as it stands, and they have beaten some worthy conference contenders in recent weeks. The Saints, Rams, Colts and Chiefs have suffered at the hands of the Tennessee onslaught. And now the AFC South team come up against a divisional rival in the despondant Texans. 
• In all honesty, Tennessee’s 3 week average hasn’t been very good. It has been dropping steadily since Derrick Henry’s departure, and the games have stayed relatively close. A key cause for this drop is the loss of volume that Henry is used to. And the Titans have been scrabbling around to find adequate replacements. But perhaps they have found on in D’Onta Foreman. He may lose some height and weight on the King, but he has quickly made a decent impression. The Running Back has picked up the most rushing yards for the team in the last two games – and only been stuffed once. 
• The Texans have faced a lot of carries, but have found it very difficult to slow down opposing rushers. Their rushes faced percentage for those that have gone over 10 yards is one of the worst in the league. So we could expect some long and dominant runs from whoever comes up against them. And Foreman could be the next one to benefit. 

Of course, all this could be changed on the result of one play so let’s hope that the stats back up the prediction!

Until next week,

Keep rushing!

Rob @5YardRob