Rushing Stats Analysis: Find the Gap Week 13
This week, we are going to dig straight into the rushing choices for Week 13. Click here for Week 12’s article.
Carolina, Cleveland, Tennessee and Green Bay are out of the running due to bye weeks. So who’s up for selection this round?
CINCINATTI BENGALS (vs. CHARGERS)
Don’t overthink it, the Bengals will continue to feed the Mixon. Even better, their opponents just can’t stop the run.
REASONS TO CONSIDER
- The Chargers are vulnerable across their rush defense. They’re averaging over 4 yards conceded per carry through ALL FIVE measured areas. But their weakest area seems to be carries across the right hand side of the line – right tackle and right end. Those areas see the average carries go for over 6 yards.
- This will be good news for Joe Mixon, who has been a legitimate rushing threat against many defenses. Key to this success is the varied play calling, and the offensive line seem to be able to follow through with those calls as well. As a result, Mixon has seen plays spread through the running channels. Six BIG rushing plays include two 11 yard carries through right tackle against the Raiders, and two 20+ yard carries against the Steelers through the left tackle last week! He will be a handful for the Chargers to deal with. I fully endorse him to pound the ground game and continue that touchdown streak.
- The Chargers have managed to keep games fairly close in the last few months. There has not been a team getting too far ahead or too far behind them. And this could be a good reason for the Bengals to stick with their post bye-week game script in order to catch up. That seems to revolve around passing Mixon the rock and seeing what happens. And, for this article, long may it continue.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (at SEAHAWKS)
The Niners are looking like hot stuff on the ground. And, even with Deebo nursing an injury, there’s plenty of players to step in.
REASONS TO CONSIDER
- The worst thing that can happen in this game is if the Seahawks take a commanding lead. Fortunately for the Niners, the Seahawks seem to have lost their tail feathers and don’t seem to be able to navigate through a game. Russell Wilson looks like totally different player post-finger injury, and the rushing offense are slowly ticking through healthy Running Backs. Their 12 rushing plays last week was the lowest of the season – and that’s saying something. Add on the numerous 3-and-out drives and this could be very telling of how the Seahawk’s remainder of the season is going to go. The division belongs to any of the other three, and I believe the team have lost a lot of drive to keep up.
- This turn of fortunes for the Hawks have seen them face the MOST rushing plays so far this season – more than the winless Detroit. And I foresee that record staying Seattle after this week. Why? Because the Niners have put up 39+ rushing attempts in each of the last three games.
- The team have got a formula that seems to be working very well, and it’s likely to continue succeeding this week. This could be due to Seattle’s inability to slow down rushing attempts. They have conceded the most carries for between 4-7 yards – runs that can easily mean the difference between a three-and-out and another first down. When you’re trying to slow down an opposing offense, this is far from ideal.
- Deebo Samuel has been a key piece in this 2021 rushing offense. And his injury will no doubt sting the team if he isn’t back in time for this game. But Elijah Mitchell has proven pace to be able to make those key runs. In EVERY GAME that Mitchell has featured in this season, he has peeled off at least 1 run for 10 yards or more.
- Plenty of the sucessful carries from Samuel and Mitchell are delivered around the sides of the line. This is where Seattle are their weakest – 5.61 ypc around the left side and 6.86 ypc around the right side. So watch those areas for big plays!
Join me next week for two more rushing selections!