START ‘EM SIT ‘EM – WEEK 14
We made it! The finale of the Fantasy Football regular season is upon us. Time to give that final push, to get in to the playoffs. Or, secure the number one seed. With six teams on a bye again this week, it’s an absolute minefield again. It’s the week 14 start ’em sit ’em. Let’s go!
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins @ Chargers
If Tua plays, start him. He’s thrown 21 passing Touchdowns in his ten appearances this season. In a match-up against Justin Herbert’s Chargers who throw the ball the second most in the NFL. Shootout! Staley’s defense allow 17.7 PPG to opposing Quarterbacks which ranks eleventh most. Tagovailoa left last week’s game against the 49ers early and did not return due to an ankle injury. He logged limited participations all week but does not carry a designation going into this weekend.
Ryan Tannehill, Titans vs. Jaguars
If you’ve unfortunately lost your Quarterback to the bye this week or an injury recently, you could do a lot worse then starting Ryan Tannehill this weekend. The Jaguars allow the eighth most points to the position(19.7). They’ve also allowed the seventh most passing yards on the year. Since returning from a short absence in week ten, Tannehill has had two QB1 finishes and there’s potentially another one on the cards here.
Deshaun Watson, Browns @ Bengals
Watson was woeful on his return against his old team last week. I guess that’s what happens when you don’t play for nearly two years. Unless you absolutely have to, don’t start Deshaun until we’ve seen what we know he can do. The Bengals defense also allow the sixth least PPG to the position and opposing signal callers have attempted the eighth least passes on the year so far.
Daniel Jones, Giants vs. Eagles
A guy who’s been a solid fill in at Quarterback for our Fantasy teams this season. This is not the week. Philadelphia still allow the least points to Quarterbacks and Jones rushing upside could be capped here. Quarterbacks rush the least against the Eagles across the whole NFL. Oh, and the least passing yards if you was holding out hope for a pass attack. Look away from Danny Dimes this week. Philly are a nightmare match-up.
RUNNING BACK STARTS
D’Onta Foreman, Panthers @ Seahawks
Seattle are dealing with another brute Running Back in D’onta this week. They’re currently allowing the fourth most PPG to ball carriers. In their last three games teams have pounded the rock more then ever. Opposing Running Backs have averaged 32 carries per game and 168 rushing yards on average, across the last three games. Foreman has top 12 upside at the position this week.
D’Andre Swift, Lions vs. Vikings
Since week 11 the Vikings have allowed over 100 Fantasy points to Running Backs. Allowing 4.2 yards per carry across those games and two rushing scores. It’s the pass catchers out of the backfield that have been getting it done though. Allowing nearly 10 catches a week over the last 3 games, Swift has RB1 upside this week. The Lions back had over a 50% route run rate last week and should continue to see a nice workload in his second week avoiding the injury report consecutively.
RUNNING BACK SITS
Rachaad White, Buccaneers @ 49ers
We saw the Dolphins carry the ball a total eight times last week against this stout San Francisco run defense. Leonard Fournette also returned to the clear 1A role in the Bucs ground game with White moving back to 1B. He played 41% of the snaps and handled 15 total touches. Tom Brady also attempts the most passes in the NFL and expect this week to be no different. We need Touchdown(s) from White to be relevant this week.
Michael Carter, Jets @ Bills
We all see what Zonovan Knight did in Carter’s absence last week. I don’t think anybody expected how strong of a lead role the Rookie would assume, even with Carter out. Knight played 55% of the snaps, handled all the carries in the red zone and put up 118 total yards. Carter could take Ty Johnson’s work in the receiving game but the ground game is all but locked down for now. Buffalo allow only 18.7 PPG to the position, less then 5 receptions per game and a miniscule two receiving Touchdowns to Running Backs this year.
WIDE RECEIVER STARTS
DJ Moore, Panthers @ Seahawks
It’s simple. Baker Mayfield is no longer in Carolina. Start DJ Moore. I’m joking of course but at the same time not really. In his seven games with Baker under center, Moore had 22 catches from 48 targets, 245 receiving yards and a singular Touchdown. In his five games with either PJ Walker or Sam Darnold at Quarterback, it’s the DJM we grew fond of. 8 targets and over 70 receiving yards per game, along with 3 receiving scores. He has WR1 upside this week.
Zay Jones, Jaguars @ Titans
Admittedly this is a bit boom or bust. As it has been all year with Zay Jones. At worst this week though, he holds flex value. The Titans are stone last against Wide Receivers in Fantasy. He has a 22.6% target share this season on the Jaguars and is the clear second option behind Christian Kirk. You have to throw to beat Tennessee and Jones has nearly a 25% air yards share on his team. He has double figure red zone targets on the year, four of which have come in his last three games.
WIDE RECEIVER SITS
Donovan Peoples-Jones, Browns @ Bengals
Last week, Peoples-Jones volume took a hit with the return of Deshaun Watson. He was nicely ticking along with an 18.6% target share and over 60 receving yards per game before week 13. Last week that share dropped below 15%. The Bengals are also very good against Wide Receivers allowing the fourth least Fantasy points on the season. Like I mentioned above, we need to see it with Deshaun until we can plug DPJ back in to our line-ups.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chiefs @ Denver
If you’re able to sit JuJu Smith-Schuster, you’ve probably got a few elite guys or players having a good run ahead of him. So, do it. The Broncos allow the fewest points to wideouts in Fantasy. Since returning from injury, JuJu has dropped down to third option on the Chiefs offense behind Valdes-Scantling and only narrowly ahead of Rookie, Skyy Moore in terms of target share. His 13.3 points in PPR over those games, screams sit.
TIGHT END STARTS
Gerald Everett, Chargers vs. Dolphins
A 15% slice of a huge pie this season in Los Angeles could be enough volume for him to get by against a Miami defense allowing the third most PPG to Tight Ends. Miami also allow the third most receptions and eighth most yards to the position. They’ve also allowed 7 receiving Touchdowns to Tight Ends this year. If you haven’t got 1 of the big three options on your roster(Kelce, Andrews, Hockenson), Everett is a good a play as any this week.
Evan Engram, Jaguars @ Titans
For the same reasons as Zay Jones, you have to throw to beat the Titans. Similarly to Everett he has just under a 15% target share on his team this season. He scored his second Touchdown of the year last week on two red zone targets. It’s a bit boom or bust as I said with Jones earlier but with six teams on bye, there’s a lot worse options then Engram, who could get by on volume alone this week.
TIGHT END SITS
Dawson Knox and Tyler Conklin
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets
This is a two-in-one start ’em sit ’em. Both Tight Ends in this game will struggle. Neither the Bills or Jets have allowed a receiving Touchdown to a Tight End this season. Knox is painfully the TE20 on the season whilst Conklin is the TE13, with less then 20 points seperating the pair. Conklin excelled with Joe Flacco under center but has scored only ten points in his two games with Mike White. Knox even worse only scoring us four points the last two weeks. Knox scraped by with Touchdowns last year but only has five red zone targets from Josh Allen this year. Conklin on the other hand hasn’t had a TE1 finish since week eight. Look elsewhere.
And, that is that for the week 14 start ’em sit ’em. If you have any personal dilemmas, don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter(@LVenes1) and good luck this weekend.