Rush Nation, I am back with another set of Start/Sits. Other than the two Ravens players, this column absolutely landed last week. Therefore the pressure has been upped for this week.
This weeks Start/Sits column has some big names in here. It’s important to look at the information and make a decision for yourself. I will offer advice for what to do. However, you have to look at your team and see if a sub-optimal performance is still better than what you have on your bench. If our Sit option is Kirk Cousins for example, and your only other option is Case Keenum or Kyle Allen, then no, do not sit Cousins. Start/Sits is here to identify matchups and predict performance.
Now, it is time to look at Week 10’s Start/Sits:
Kyler Murray is currently the QB7 on the year so far this season. He has lived up to the hype, and offers Fantasy players a safe floor due to some rushing yards that he will pick up though a game.
This week, he is playing the 4th worst defense against Quarterbacks for Fantasy, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Buccaneers have given up a total of 19 Touchdowns in 8 games (or 2 Touchdowns a game) and are allowing Quarterbacks to score on average 23.4 Fantasy Points Per Game. Murray, coming off a mini bye, should be ready to go. Expect Murray to have a top 10 performance this week, if not more.
Drew Brees has not played for most of the 2019 NFL season. However, he did return before the bye, and put up a performance that reminded us just how good he is. Brees went 34/43 373 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT against the Arizona Cardinals in Week Eight.
This week he plays the Atlanta Falcons defense, which is the third worst against Quarterbacks in terms of fantasy scoring so far in 2019. They are allowing 23.5 Fantasy Points Per Game and 22 Touchdowns so far this season from eight games. Although they have only conceded three Rushing Touchdown this season, Sunday could see Brees try and sneak one in, if they get near the goal-line, I could see Brees sneaking one in. Expect Brees to get into the high 30s or low 40s when it comes to passing attempts, so start everyone, including Brees in this fantasy offense. You might not see Drew Brees too many times in this Start/Sits column. However this is a slam dun k start this week.
This past Sunday saw the potential passing of the torch from Frank Gore to Devin Singletary. Singletary saw 64.5% of the Buffalo Bills carries on Sunday, whilst also having a 20% target share. He has had the target share before, but never alongside that rushing share. Therefore it looks like he is going to be the guy going forward and therefore leaving Frank Gore out of the cold.
This Cleveland Browns defense was viewed as being a top tier defense at the start off the season. This defense has Pro Bowlers and was coming back off a top 10 defence last season. However, it’s fair to say that the Browns run defense just isn’t that good. They are currently the 10th ranked team in terms of Fantasy Points given up to Running Backs this year. They are giving up 26.2 Fantasy Points Per Game to Running Backs.
And whilst the Browns have only given up seven Touchdowns this season in eight games. However, Philip Lindsay, who has only gone over 100 yards once this season, ran for 92 yards and a score off just NINE CARRIES!
They haven’t faced any backs this season that have the size, speed, burst and handling ability that Devin Singletary possess. If he gets a similar opportunity to success to last weekend, then I expect Singletary to have a huge day. He is a sure Start this week from this weeks Start/Sits column.
Last week, I wrongly put Mark Ingram in the sits section of this Start/Sits column. I thought he would get stifled by the New England Patriots. However, he rose up to have an excellent day and establish himself well and truly in the race to remain a RB1 this season.
This week he faces off against the Bengals. The Bengals are ranked 3rd in points allowed in terms of Fantasy Points per Games allowed to Running Backs, according to Full Time Fantasy. Despite conceding 31.2 Points Per Game to Fantasy Wide Receivers, they have only conceded 10 Touchdowns this season to Wide Receivers.
Ingram is nailed on to be a RB1 this week. The only reason he won’t be is if he is pulled by the coaching staff early in the game. The Bengals are giving up over 172 yards a game to Running Backs per game so far this season. This week, they will start a Rookie Quarterback and give him his first snaps for the season. This could be a bloodbath and Ingram could have a career day. Trust the Start/Sits.
As with D.K Metcalf in this Start/Sits column last week, I’ll start this prefacing that if you have any offensive player in this game, you should start them. Winston, Evans, Lockett, Godwin, Murray, Kirk, Drake, and Fitzgerald.
Kirk has yet to find the end zone this season due to injuries, learning a new offense, building a rapport with a new Quarterback, dealing with a new coach etc. However, when fully fit, he is the first read in this offense and catches a lot of balls.
Tampa Bay are giving up 45.5 Fantasy Points per Game to Wide Receivers. This ranks them as the highest conceding team in the NFL. And with their Cornerbacks getting beaten regularly for Touchdowns in the Red Zone, especially if Jamel Dean plays this week, as he struggled immensely with Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, David Moore and last weeks Start/Sits darling, D.K Metcalf.
I expect this week will be the week in which Kirk will finally find the end zone in 2019 and expect him to have a High WR2, Low end WR1 game in PPR formats.
As mentioned earlier, Kirk Cousins is someone that is in this Start/Sit column as someone who, if you can afford to sit them, you should. However, if not, them temper your expectations into someone who shouldn’t be putting up QB1 numbers this week.
The Dallas Cowboys Defense have been one of the best against Quarterbacks this year. They are currently ranked 5th against Quarterbacks, giving up 14.1 Fantasy Points Per Game to Quarterbacks. However, it is worth mentioning, that they secondary was down to bare bones as both starting Cornerbacks were out. They have also been without Sean Lee for much of the season. And now, Leighton Vander Esch is also banged up.
Cousins started the season badly. However, he has really come along leaps and bounds since Week Three. But the one thing to remember with Cousins is that he really has a poor record when playing on Primetime TV. This is also his toughest test of the season so far.
With the Cowboys having only given up 7 passing Touchdowns this season, it probably makes sense to put Cousins on your bench this week.
Joe Mixon might be the fantasy bust of the season so far. He was taken at the tail end of the first round in most Fantasy Football drafts. However, after 9 weeks of the season, he is currently the Running Back 36 on the season. He is getting less and less work in the passing game. In addition to this, the Bengals O-line is quite honestly the worst Offensive Line in the NFL right now.
He is facing this week a Ravens defense that reduced the Patriots varied rushing attack to just 74 Yards. The Ravens are the 10th best in the NFL when it comes to the least amount of Fantasy Points per Game conceded to Running Backs, conceding just 22.7 points per game. They have also only allowed 8 Rushing Touchdowns so far this season and are giving up just 112.8 scrimmage yards a game to all Running Backs per game. Therefore, this is not a get right game for Mixon. Sit him, by order of the Start/Sits (Peaky Blinders reference for you TV Boxset fans).
The Dolphins backfield has gone under some major changes in 2019. It started out with Kalen Ballage effectively being the starter over Kenyon Drake. However, when he proved he wasn’t up to the task and frankly looking more like an Elvis impersonator than an NFL Running Back, Drake was given more of the backfield.
However, over the recent weeks, Mark Walton, the former Bengal, started commanding touches. So much so that prior to the NFL Trade Deadline, he was given the most touches by the Dolphins coaching staff, and Ballage was merely an afterthought.
Now that Drake has been traded to the Cardinals, it seemed to be wheels up for Walton. However, coming off a poor performance on Sunday against the Jets, the news broke that he would serve a four game suspension for violating the leagues PED Policy.
This leaves the backfield choices as Kalen Ballage again, who has started to come back into the fold as a Goal-line back, and Miles Gaskin.
The Colts have only given up 3 Rushing Touchdowns all season to Running Backs. And at 21.4 Fantasy Points per Game being conceded to Running Backs, they are stingy already. Therefore, since we don’t know who is going to command work in the backfield, and if they are any good or not, and playing a strong rushing defence, it’s probably worth just sitting them all.
Last week in this Start/Sits column he was a must start. And I was right! This week, he is now in the sits. There won’t be too many matches this season that I will recommend him to sit. However, for this week, find a space on your bench for him.
He has been a revelation this year and arguably been the best Rookie WR in the NFL so far this season. For a player taken with the last pick in the 2nd round, he came in with a lot to prove. Metcalf clearly has a chip on his shoulder also about where he was drafted. He is here to prove the rest of the league that they were wrong to pass on him… twice!
It’s worth noting that for this week, the matchup does not suit him. The 49ers are the 3rd best defense against Fantasy Wide Receivers this season. They have only given up 27.4 Fantasy Points per Game to all Wide Receivers and only 6 Touchdowns to Wide Receivers all season. 2 of those were last week against the Cardinals, with 1 of them being a freak 88 Yard Touchdown from Andy Isabella when the game was already won.
D.K Metcalf won’t get the volume this week to sustain the fantasy performances of last week. He is Touchdown or bust this week. As a result, sit him down and go for someone else.
This Start/Sits choice is more about the situation JuJu finds himself in at this point of the season more than the opposition he is facing. OK, he is facing the Rams. And he will probably be covered by Jalen Ramsey. Therefore, this isn’t a great matchup.
However, it is more about the Steelers offense that is likely to lineup on Sunday. James Conner looks doubtful for Sunday. And Benny Snell Jr. is also out for Sunday. This will mean Jalen Samuels, the RB/TE (he played both positions in college) will command the most amount of targets in this offense on Sunday, because Edmunds will have the majority of the carries.
This diminishes JuJu’s chances to succeed in this game. The other thing that hurts him? The average Yards per Pass Attempt coming from Mason Rudolph this season. His 6.6 Yards per Pass Attempt is good enough for 29th place in the NFL in terms of starting Quarterbacks in the NFL. He is ranked ahead of Daniel Jones (6.5), Sam Darnold (6.2) and Mitchell Trubisky (5.6). And that’s it. So when Rudolph and his 27 pass attempts per game happen, the ball doesn’t go far enough for JuJu to be relevant. He is a Touchdown or bust option. And against Jalen Ramsey, I’ld bank on bust being the outcome. JuJu should be taking a seat this week on your bench.
That’s everything for this week. Please do leave comments for more Start/Sits. Also, please do check out all our other content here on 5yardrush.co.uk and make sure you are subscribed and are downloading our podcast, which you can get in your ears 4 times a week.
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