Rush Nation, I am a day late this week. However, I am here to deliver your Start/Sits for Week 11. This is such a key week for all teams looking to get into the fantasy playoffs. Therefore this is a Start/Sits you need to pay attention to. There are four teams on bye this week as well as some difficult match-ups. If you are struggling to get a team out on the field on Sunday, then refer back to our Waiver Wire article for Week Eleven. Especially as all our picks are under 30% owned in leagues.
Also, we are going to stop including Tight Ends in this column going forward for the rest of the season. With the position at an all time low with Kittle injured, Hooper injured and a number of performers done for the year with injuries, it doesn’t make sense to recommend sits. If you have Howard and Hockenson, you should try and pick up Fells, or Hollister (who is on bye this week).
Should you wish to find out about which Tight End’s to start, or which to sit, you have a couple of choices. You can either view our Weekly Tight End Rankings, listen to our Tuesday Flagship podcast, or join out Flick Chat channel. The link is at the end of this column. But for the purpose of time, and length, I have decided to keep this Start/Sits column to just QBs, RBs, and WRs.
Josh Allen is not everybody’s favourite Quarterback. In fact, he is struggling for accuracy with the deep ball. Allen has completed just four passes for 40 yards or longer. However, two of these completions were either behind or at the line of scrimmage.
The longest pass Allen has completed this season was a 51-yarder in Week Two to Cole Beasley. This was measured by NFL’s Next Gen Stats as having traveled 42.5 yards in the air, which ranks 38th and dead last among NFL quarterbacks with a minimum 83 attempts this season. Overall, Allen ranks only 22nd in the NFL with 1,919 yards passing and a lowly 27th in averaging 6.76 yards per attempt.
So why is he a start? Well it’s because he is playing the Dolphins defense. The Dolphins are 9th in terms of Fantasy Points per Game given up to QBs. As a result, I expect Allen to run in a couple of TDs. Josh Allen is tied for the NFL league for QB Rushing Touchdowns with 6, with Lamar Jackson. He will most likely get the Bills into the Red Zone and then run in a couple. I also don’t think he will give the ball away too much. Expect a 20pt game for Allen this week.
Jimmy G has been improving as the season goes on. He is starting to look like the end of the 2017 season Jimmy G, where he won 5 games in a row down the stretch. They are currently ranked 8th in DVOA Football Outsiders rankings for offensive points per drive in the NFL. That shows that whilst he might not have the highlight real of Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes, he is putting together a very successful season.
If that wasn’t enough, he plays the Cardinals this week. Arizona are the worst defense in the NFL when compared to Fantasy Points per Game allowed to QBs. They have also given up 25 passing Touchdowns. This leads the league. In addition, they have given up 3,047 Passing Yards which also leads the NFL so far this season.
This should be a great opportunity for Jimmy G to showcase his talent and take advantage of a ham schedule. Therefore follow Start/Sits and start Jimmy G.
David Montgomery has improved over his beginning of the season performance. However last week he had a setback. The problem with this Bears offense is that because it is so bad, you are relying on them to be competent in order for Montgomery to be relevant. The Bears rank in 28th in points scored on offensive drives according to Football Outsiders and 28th in Drive Success rate.
However, what should be an arrow up for Montgomery is that he is facing the Rams. They aren’t much better on offense and last week put up 3 points on offense against the Steelers. And whilst the O-Line keeps losing men, they are down to their bare bones in a position that has been their Achilles heel all season. This is making Jared Goff look and play even worse. I talked about this on Tuesday’s show, that Jared Goff has scored 18 Touchdowns and has had 17 Interceptions and 17 Fumbles in his last 17 games.
This means the Bears D, as banged up as it is, should get the offense on the field more. More drives means more plays. If the Bears can get ahead in the game, which is possible, Montgomery will feature heavily. This is a change for Montgomery to have a huge day and say to his coaching staff that he should be relied upon week in week out. Montgomery might end up on both sides of the Start/Sits but he is a start this week.
*Update. Montgomery missed practice Thursday with a “slightly” rolled ankle. Monitor the injury report over the next couple of days.
Sanu has been a useful addition to the Patriots so far. He scored on his debut with the team in the loss to the Ravens. And with a shortage of options at Wide Receiver, he is going to be targeted a fair bit in this game. Especially as Philly are built to stop the run. The Eagles also are suffering at the Cornerback position and as a result, they have given up 39.2 Fantasy Points per Game to Wide Receivers. If that wasn’t bad enough, they have conceded 14 Touchdowns in 9 games to Wide Receivers.
Whilst the Patriots air attack has not been overly potent this year, this is one of those games where I would expect Brady and Co, off a bye week, to get right and have a plan to attack the Eagles secondary. Expect Sanu and Edelman to feast in this one and come up with a score each. Fire up Sanu this weeks, by order of the Start/Sits column.
I love the Bills stack this week of Allen, Singletary (in the starts section of Tuesday’s podcast) and Brown. Brown is, as previously mentioned, one of only 2 Wide Receivers in the NFL with 50 receiving yards every game so far this season (the other being Michael Thomas). It baffles me that John Brown is a Start/Sit conversation most week. It probably has to do with his Quarterback more than his ability. However, he has no competition for targets and is putting up great fantasy numbers.
Brown currently sits as the WR18 overall in PPR scoring. By the end of the weekend he will probably be as high as WR15/WR16. Brown has only had one game below 10 PPR points all season (9.2 points in Week Three which ironically was against the 0-9 Bengals). He is consistently performing as a WR2 and will remain in that territory for the remainder of the year.
Against the Dolphins he has a great chance to add a score against a Defense who have conceded 14 Touchdowns already this season to Wide Receivers.
Ok, so I have already talked about Goff and his appalling stats over the last 17 games. However, it isn’t just the Offensive Line or Goff’s confidence that is causing problems. Goff’s on field poise and ability to go through his progressions seems to have just disappeared! Cooper Kupp is an elite NFL Wide Receiver. How do you manage to play a game for 60 minutes against the 4-4 Pittsburgh Steelers and not target Cooper Kupp once! Well, it’s because he missed a ton of wide open throws and is panicking in the pocket.
According to Next Gen Stats in Week 7, Jared Goff’s time to throw was 2.89 seconds. In Week 8, before the bye, it was 2.92. In Week 10 vs the Steelers, it was down at 2.66. Now 0.33 seconds doesn’t sound like a lot of time. However, that is the difference between completing your progressions and not as a Quarterback. This shows the blind panic in his game to just get rid of the ball.
This week he gets the mean Chicago defense who might not be on 2018 pace, but are still stingy to Quarterbacks. The Bears defense has almost three times as many sacks (25) as Touchdowns allowed by QBs (9). Goff is going to be in for another tough game against a pressure heavy defensive front. I think Goff in a 1QB league can be cut and replaced at this stage.
I have already covered why the Patriots will cover the air vs run it a ton on the ground. However, two weeks ago, the Patriots gave the blueprint to what happens when they play against a team who is built against the run. They don’t use Sony Michel. Michel against the Ravens in Week Nine was given just 4 carries for 18 yards and 1 reception for 12 yards. 4 PPR points for Michel. That is why we sat him in Week Nine in this Start/Sits column and why we will sit him again this week.
Philadelphia are actually the 8th best defense in terms of Points Allowed per Game to Running Backs. They give up just 21 PPG and have given up just 6 Touchdowns and 582 yards on the ground.
Michel is a Touchdown or bust Running Back in Fantasy Football. In the games where he hasn’t score a Touchdown he has scored 1.5, 6.3, 13.3 (against the Giants), 7.4 and 4 points. For the second time in three weeks it’s a sit for Michel in this Start/Sits column.
I said it on Tuesday and I followed it up with Davis Mattek on Thursday. I think David Johnson is done as a Fantasy Football asset and I am out on him. On Thursday’s podcast with Davis, I went as far as saying I would prefer to have Alexander Mattison over Johnson on my roster. These might seem quite heat of the moment statements. However, I stand by them now.
In deeper leagues I will play Johnson this week. Purely because the alternative is so bad I might as well. However, I am fully expecting to take a 0 or very little with him there. Johnson holds little to any standalone value as a Running Back now. He doesn’t look healthy. He has had some horrific injuries in the NFL. His wrist kept him out of the entire 2017 season, minus the First Quarter of Week 1.
His injuries this season have consisted of back, ankle and hamstring. He seems so banged up it has changed his running style. DJ looks like he is running in treacle. The team know it too. That is why the Cardinals traded for Kenyon Drake. It is why David Johnson has been sat down when on a game-day squad. If they are still trying to put him on the field every week when he is clearly banged up, then I worry about his future.
I haven’t even mentioned he is playing the third best Defence against the run in the NFL, the 49ers. They have conceded just 3 Touchdowns to Running Backs this year. He’s cooked. You probably won’t see DJ in the Start/Sits column again as he is basically a mandatory sit until further notice.
With Thielen injured and most likely out this weekend. As a result, Diggs will get the Chris Harris Jr. treatment on Sunday. The Broncos are also a top 5 defense against Wide Receivers. They have only given 5 Touchdowns all season to Wide Receivers and Chris Harris Jr. is right up there as one of the best Shutdown Cornerbacks in the NFL.
The Vikings are improving on offense. And the victory against the Cowboys on Sunday Night football showed that improvement. However, that victory was, like many others, establish by the run and the ability of Dalvin Cook. Therefore, I would expect this week to be the same. I expect Diggs to lay up some pretty ugly scores this week and I don’t see how he gets in the end zone. Therefore, from a Start/Sits perspective, he has to be a sit this week. No matter how difficult it might be, I am sure you have someone who can do a better job this week in one of your bench spots.
Alshon Jeffery has 1 WR1 week (ranking in the top 12. He finished 6th in PPR scoring in Week 6) and 1 WR2 week (finished 19th in PPR scoring in Week 1) all season. Therefore for the rest of the season he has been WR3 or lower.
Part of the problem is the Eagles have struggled getting the ball down field. In 8 starts, Jeffrey has only caught 34 passes for 353 and 3 Touchdowns. 93 of these yards have even after the catch. These numbers aren’t sustainable as a fantasy asset. He is also averaging a dropped pass once every 2.25 games, which isn’t good either.
This week he faces the best defense in the NFL, the New England Patriots. Since they have only given up 1 Touchdown in the air to Wide Receivers, I don’t like the chances of Jeffery scoring this week. And since he is such a Touchdown or bust commodity, he can remain on my bench for this week. You will probably see him again in my sits portion of the Start/Sits column before too long.
That’s everything for this week. Please do leave comments for more Start/Sits. Also, please do check out all our other content here on 5yardrush.co.uk and make sure you are subscribed and are downloading our podcast, which you can get in your ears 4 times a week.
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