Start and Sits

Start/Sits- Week 9

First of all Rush Nation, I apologise for not getting this Start/Sits column out last week. I got very busy towards the end of last week and struggled to get into the nitty gritty of this article. So, rather than putting out garbage, I just decided to pull it and come back stronger this week.

This weeks Start/Sits column has some big names in here. It’s important to look at the information and make a decision for yourself. I will offer advice for what to do. However, you have to look at your team and see if a sub-optimal performance is still better than what you have on your bench. If our Sit option is Lamar Jackson for example, and your only other option is Case Keenum or Kyle Allen, then no, do not sit Jackson. Start/Sits is here to identify matchups and predict performance.

Now, it is time to look at Week 9’s Start/Sits:

Starts

Dak Prescott vs New York Giants

Dak Prescott is having a good season. He is fourth in average fantasy points per game, behind Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson. Prescott is completing over 70% of his passes this season as well as averaging 303 yards a game.

However the 1 column he has underperformed so far this season is Touchdowns. Dak has 12 Touchdowns in 7 games. This is only a good enough for a share of 13th place amongst Quarterbacks this season.

This week’s matchup sees Dak play the 9th easiest defense from a Fantasy Football perspective, the New York Giants. The Giants have given up a total of 16 Touchdowns in 8 games (or 2 Touchdowns a game) and are allowing Quarterbacks to score on average 20.4 Fantasy Points Per Game. Dak, coming off a bye, should have players back to health. And, if they can dominate the Time of Possession and number of plays, expect Dak to have a very good day. Start/Sits was made for players like Dak.

Josh Allen vs Washington Redskins

Josh Allen is a polarising figure in the NFL. Many fans love him. However many people are very quick to hate on him due to his inaccuracy at passing and the lack of big games under his belt so far. However, he never quits and battles to the end.

Allen is the QB12 on the season in terms of Fantasy Points Per Game with 18.3. Or, if you want to put it another way, He is 2 touchdowns, 100 passing yards and 20 rushing yards behind Dak Prescott in 4th. It’s not a lot. That’s how bunched up Quarterback gets in terms of Points Per Game.

This week he plays the Washington Redskins defense, which is middle of the road in terms of Points Per Games conceded to Quarterbacks. Ranked 17th and allowing 17.9 Fantasy Points Per Game, they are not an opposing threat. And although they are yet to concede a Rushing Touchdown this season, Sunday should see Allen get one. All in all, the Redskins have trouble on offense. And if Haskins gets the start, they will struggle to move the chains. Especially against that Buffalo Defense. Expect Allen to get plenty of plays, and plenty of points on Sunday. Josh Allen is the perfect Start/Sits player and could be in this column every week, one way or the other. 

Jordan Howard vs Chicago Bears

The proverbial Jordan Howard revenge game is happening on Sunday. Jordan Howard will feel like he has a lot to prove against his former team, who traded him for a 6th round pick to the Eagles this summer.

The Chicago Bears defense, once feared and even more recently, a defence being taken 6-7 rounds too early in Fantasy Football drafts, is one not to fear for Howard. Not only did he practice against these guys for a year or two but he also knows how they lineup, as well as their strengths and weaknesses. Not to mention, the Bears run defense just isn’t that good. They are currently the 10th ranked team in terms of Fantasy Points given up to Running Backs this year. They are giving up 27 Fantasy Points Per Game to Running Backs.

Admittedly they didn’t give up many points to Melvin Gordon last time out. However, Latavius Murray ran over the Bears in Week Seven with 119 Rushing Yards and 2 Touchdowns. In addition to that, the Raiders in London ran the ball in them consistently. Jacobs ended the day with 123 Yards Rushing and 2 Touchdowns, and the Raiders ended up with 169 yards on the ground.

Howard will be the primary back this week. And with Miles Sanders an injury concern, could see even more work. He might not get to the 100 yard barrier on the ground, but he is a candidate for 100 scrimmage yards, and a score. Be confident in this Start/Sits selection.

Tyrell Williams vs Detroit Lions

As we said on Tuesday’s Podcast, Tyrell Williams has scored a Touchdown every game he has played in this season. He is also their only real receiving threat, other than Darren Waller. 

This week he faces off against the Lions. The lions are ranked 11th in points allowed in terms of Fantasy Points per Games allowed to Wide Receivers, according to Full Time Fantasy. Despite conceding 38.3 Points Per Game to Fantasy Wide Receivers, they have only conceded 8 Touchdowns this season to Wide Receivers.

Williams is more often than not the first read in the offense. He brings a very safe floor to your team and I would expect him to score again this week. With the Lions giving up 176 yards per game to receivers, and the Raiders not having any other alternatives to Williams then Hunter Renfrow, expect Williams to push close to 100 yards and a score. Who wouldn’t put that kind of production in their lineup? Trust the Start/Sits.

D.K Metcalf vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I’ll start this prefacing that if you have any offensive player in this game, with the exception of O.J. Howard who is an injury concern, you should start them. Winston, Evans, Lockett, Godwin, Wilson, Hollister, Brate, and Metcalf. 

Metcalf is the red zone threat for Wilson. Metcalf ranks 5th amongst all Wide Receivers in Red Zone Targets this year with 11. This is behind Mike Evans, Auden Tate, Julian Edelman and Michael Thomas. With the exception of Evans, none of these have had a bye week yet. The one reason Metcalf is still slightly under the radar: his 18.2% Catch Rate on these targets. He has 2 TDs. However, he is still consistently getting 2 Red Zone Targets since his bye every game.

Tampa Bay are giving up 42.1 Fantasy Points per Game to Wide Receivers. This ranks them as the 5th highest conceding team in the NFL. And with their Cornerbacks getting beaten regularly for Touchdowns in the Red Zone, expect Metcalf to have himself a day .

Sits

Lamar Jackson vs New England Patriots

As mentioned earlier, Lamar Jackson is someone that is in this Start/Sit column as someone who, if you can afford to sit them, you should. However, if not, them temper your expectations into someone who shouldn’t be putting up QB1 numbers this week.

The New England Defense this year has been a force to be reckoned with. As a result, they are giving up virtually nothing to Quarterbacks this year. Now, people will point towards their schedule, which is a valid point. However, regardless of whatever level you are playing the game, giving up only 2 Passing Touchdowns in 8 games is an incredible record.

Lamar has shown great improvement with his arm this season. However, he still has a lack of weapons that will struggle to trouble the New England Secondary. It’s worth noting that whilst New England have only conceded 2 Touchdowns to QBs, they have made those same QBs throw 19 Interceptions so far this season. Therefore, this Patriots defense is allowing QBs the following Statline:

18/34, 175 Yards, 0.25 TDs Passing, 2.4 INTs, 1.75 Carries for 9.8 Yards Rushing, 0.1 TDs Rushing

Jackson will do damage on the ground. However, in order for him to be fantasy relevant this week, he will probably need 100 yards and a Rushing Touchdown. He also cannot afford to lose the football. Therefore, start him if you must, but his ceiling is very, very low this week.

Mark Ingram vs New England Patriots

In a similar vein to Lamar Jackson, it would be wise to bench Mark Ingram if you can also. Whilst Nick Chubb had a decent game last weekend, it wasn’t lost on me that he didn’t find the end zone. If one of the most dynamic Running Backs in football couldn’t find the end zone, I am going to struggle to predict an ageing, however experienced back to find the end zone.

This Patriots Defence is halfway through the season and they are yet to concede a Rushing Touchdown. They are giving up 54.25 Rushing Yards a game to all Running Backs and a measly 84.25 Scrimmage Yards a game to all Running Backs. 84 Scrimage Yards, 0 Touchdowns and a small handful of catches at best, is not an attractive proposition for one of your Running Backs. And whilst he could out perform it, Nick Chubb didn’t manage 15 PPR Fantasy Points last week. So it’s unlikely he will outperform this number. Again, it depends who you have, but be weary.

Sony Michel vs Baltimore Ravens

Start/Sits has really focused on this primetime game. Another one to sit in this game is Sony Michel. Because, is he remarkably inconsistent. Against better defenses in the NFL such as Pittsburgh, Buffalo and Cleveland, not only did he fail to find the end zone, despite positive game script for him, but he failed to break 75 yards total in the game. Against Pittsburgh he has 15 carries for 14 yards, against Buffalo he went 17-63 and against Cleveland he went 21-74. He is averaging a very poor 3.3 yards per carry in 2019.

There is no doubt he carries value due to volume and also being the goal-line back. However, Baltimore are only giving up 1 Rushing Touchdown per game to Running Backs. Due to the nature of this game, I would expect James White to hold more value and out produce Michel. Michel’s ceiling is 75 yards and a Touchdown. He is very much a Touchdown or bust play here. He still isn’t getting volume in the passing game, especially against good defenses. If you have alternatives, start them over Michel.

Odell Beckham Jr. Vs Denver Broncos

The following sentence are words I never thought I would type. Odell Beckham Jr is a match-up dependant starter in Fantasy Football. Feels good to get that off my chest, I am not going to lie. OBJ hasn’t been fantasy relevant for most games this season. In fact, he has only gone over 10 Points in Standard Scoring just once this season (in Week Two). 

Clearly the decision to skip Pre-Season has not worked well for him and the Browns so far this season. He is also currently ranked 29th in PPR Scoring this Season.

He now comes up against the Denver Broncos, which is the 3rd toughest defense in terms of Fantasy Points allowed to Wide Receivers this season? So far, in eight games this season, Denver have only given up 997 Receiving Yards and four Touchdowns. With the Browns and Quarterback Baker Mayfield not in full flow currently, this is going to be a tough matchup. Therefore, if you have better options, start them and sit Beckham Jr.  This might not be the last time you see OBJ in this Start/Sits column this year.

Alshon Jeffery vs Chicago Bears

After killing the Bears defence earlier on in this Start/Sits column, it is now time to explain that they are still very good at defending the pass. Receivers have not been dominant against them and the Chicago defense is currently ranked the 6th best against Wide Receivers in terms of Fantasy Points Per Game allowed, at just 29.3 points across all Wide Receivers per game.

Alshon Jeffery has not been as effective this season vs previous years. For example, he has failed to break 80 Receiving Yards in any game this season. Adding to this, he has only got 3 Touchdowns on the year. In fact, in PPR Scoring, he has only broken 13 points just twice in 7 games. 

In addition to this, the Bears have yet to give up 1000 yards to Wide Receivers this season. With just 991 yards and 3 Touchdowns allowed, they have been very frugal with their coverage. Therefore, due to inconsistency from Jeffery, and stinginess from the Chicago defense, it is probably best to avoid this matchup and let Jeffery take a seat this week.

Wrap Up

That’s everything for this week. Please do leave comments for more Start/Sits. Also, please do check out all our other content here on 5yardrush.co.uk and make sure you are subscribed and are downloading our podcast, which you can get in your ears 4 times a week.

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