Superflex Draft Strategy

The Big Mans Strategies Superflex

Fantasy Football has seen several revolutions over the past decade. For example, dynasty leagues taking off, Points Per Reception, additional flex spots, Running Backs in the first round, etc. And now we have reached a new format that is gaining more and more popularity. So much so, don’t be surprised it will become the standard over the next few years. That format is Superflex.

 

If you are not familiar with Superflex, it is where you have a flex spot where Quarterbacks can be player, as well as your usual RB/WR/TE. The idea of this league is to bring back the importance of Quarterback to Fantasy Football. Over the last seven or eight years, the late round QB strategy has become the standard. And from a value based drafting approach, it makes a ton of sense. If you go and read our value based drafting guide on the touchdown.co.uk or here on our site, you will see the evidence we present as to why this strategy is effective and not one to fear. 

 

Superflex turns this strategy on its head and therefore means the importance of the Quarterback is back. So if you have just joined a Superflex league, or are looking to join one, we have prepared this strategy guide to assist you.

 

Take Quarterbacks Early

 

To be successful in Superflex, you should be looking to take two Quarterbacks in the opening five rounds in your drafts, maybe even the first four rounds. And you need to be taking at least three Quarterbacks in this format. Because the three key reasons why are:

 

1) You need three QBs to cover the bye weeks as it is the strength of the position. A top 20 QB is more likely to score more than any WR2 or RB 2 in any given week, and more than most RB1’s and WR1’s.

2) To weaken the position for the rest of the league.

3) To take a high upside running QB to give you options heading into the playoffs.

 

1) To cover the bye weeks as it is the strength of the position. A top 20 QB is more likely to score more than any WR2 or RB 2 in any given week, and more than most RB1’s and WR1’s

 

Last year, Matthew Stafford was the QB20. And in his 15 games in 2018, he amassed 193.7 fantasy points (through weeks 1-16). That is a fantasy average of 12.9 points per game. That point total made Stafford the 32nd ranked player overall in PPR in 2018. He finished 10 points behind DeAndre Hopkins, who is being considered in drafts as the first Wide Receiver off the board in 2019. And he finished above Julio Jones by 0.7 points. Therefore from a best player available angle, getting a QB20-22 in the 7th round for example to cover your bye weeks is essential.

 

Another reason why taking a 3rd QB that is strong is because once your bye weeks are over, you now have another piece of your roster you can trade, to have an even stronger roster for the playoffs. Imagine having a top 32 player in PPR just sitting in your bench collecting dust as you have no need for him. You should be able to get a serviceable WR or RB piece that will strengthen your playoff roster no end.

 

The other strong reason for a strong QB3 is injury. Only 17 QBs played in every game in weeks 1-16 in 2018. That’s 53% of the leagues starting QBs complete every game. In 2017 that number was 50%. In 2016 it was 53% again. As you are starting 2 QBs every week, the probability, as demonstrated above, is that one of your QBs will miss time. So having a capable guy to fill in is crucial so you don’t miss a beat.

 

2) To weaken the position for the rest of the league

 

Taking two Quarterbacks in the first 4 or 5 rounds is a bold, but strong strategy for Superflex. Because not only do you strengthen your own roster, but you weaken the position for the rest of the league.

 

Last season, the gap between QB11 Phillip Rivers and QB24 Blake Bortles was a whopping 108.4 points, or 7.23PPG. 11 of the top 12 scoring players last year were Quarterbacks, with only Todd Gurley penetrating the top 12. Therefore you should be able to take a starter for your team, who will finish in the top 12 in scoring in your league, in the 4th or 5th round. Why would you not do it?

 

The gap between QB12 (Kirk Cousins) and QB13 (Tom Brady) last season was 17.7 points. And the gap between Tom Brady and QB16 Eli Manning was 32.6 points. That is 50 points between QB12 and QB16, so the scoring does start to drop off a cliff. Taking your QBs here means you can weaken the pool for those who haven’t taken one QB. So the value they might have accumulated from taking WRs and RBs will be lost. Remember, it isn’t just one starting spot, it’s two.

 

3) To take a high upside running QB to give you options heading into the playoffs

 

The secret is out. Rushing QBs are a cheat code in Fantasy Football. The exploits of Cam Newton, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson last season showed these QB options provide a very safe floor due to what they produce with their feet. If a QB rushes for 75 yards, they will get the same amount of points as if they throw for 300 yards. So a QB throwing for 250 yards and rush for 60 yards is 16 points. A QB throwing for 400 yards is… 16 points. Which one seems more likely to you?

 

Cam last year was the QB3 through weeks 1-8 in PPG average. And it was that safe rushing floor that provided him the jump over QBs such as Luck, Watson, Rodgers and everyone else except Matt Ryan and league MVP Patrick Mahomes.

 

Josh Allen was also the QB3, but in weeks 11-16 in PPG average. Did he demonstrate amazing passing ability? Not really, but he was putting up over 60 rushing yards a game on average over those last 6 weeks, which is why targeting these QBs needs to be considered.

 

Lamar Jackson over weeks 11-16 was the QB9. Again he also provides a very stable floor, especially as he did not throw for over 200 yards in a game until week 16, where he passed for 204 yards. You can expect that with a full offseason to have worked in the offense, his passing yards will increase to consistently be over 200 yards. And if he can keep a floor of 70 rushing yards, that is 15PPG before TDs and INTs are factored in. That will be an attractive option for any fantasy owner.

 

This season, these 3 QBs should be targeted as your QB2. And you can add Kyle Murray, another passing and rushing threat QB to your list. These four will be a valuable commodity in drafts, so try and secure them as your QB2 in your Superflex team.

 

Get playing Superflex

 

It is such an exciting format, and we encourage everyone to be playing in at least 1 Superflex league this season. It changes the dynamic to be more in favour of QBs and means you will have many more avenues to try out. This strategy is something we tend to use, and it has worked for us. However we would say that you still need to think about the first round as you would in your other leagues. Here is how we see it playing out:

 

Picks 1-4 in the first round- Take a stud RB. Especially in a 12 team league or more. In a 8/10 team you could consider a QB like Mahomes or Luck as there are more RB available.

 

Picks 5-8 in std/0.5PPR- Maybe looking at the likes of Gordon, Johnson Mixon, Conner are the plan. But in full PPR, taking a Stud WR has to be the smart play or maybe the top QB on the board if passed in picks 1-4.

 

Picks 9-12- We think this is a great opportunity in a draft environment like this. We would be looking at best player available in RB/WR depending on what has happened so far, but will certainly be grabbing a QB either first, or on the turn.

 

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But until then, keep rushing!