Bus to Lust - QBs

The Bust To Lust Finale – QB Edition

For the final bust to lust piece, we look at the QB position.

In this series, I looked at the positions of Running Back, Wide Receiver and Tight End.

As the title suggests I’m only looking at players that were a bust in 2019 but we will lust for in 2020.

Matthew Stafford – Detroit Lions

Stafford’s 2019 season was halted after 8 games due to injury. Before that happened, Stafford was having a productive season.

In fact, had he carried on at the same pace of the first 8 games he would have been just shy of a 5000-yard season. 38 TDs and at the time of his injury he was on a passer rating of 106 which was the highest it’s been in a long time.

Pretty much all his stats were up on previous years by a good margin. He was averaging 8.6 yards gained per pass attempt, a massive improvement on 6.8 in 2018. His average yards per completion had risen from 10.3 in 2018 to 13.4 in 2019 and his yards per game had increased too from averaging 236 per game to 312 per game.

Can he repeat it in 2020?

He should have a nice collection of players to throw the ball to in 2020. The Lions have Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, Danny Amendola, and tight end T.J. Hockenson

Getting a healthy Kerryon Johnson back too will help things further. A Good young talent at RB that can open up the field and give Stafford extra options to use to his advantage.

ADP value?

Stafford’s draft price right now is the 101st overall pick in the draft. Placing him as the 12th QB off the board. The QBs going just above him hold quite a big name value. Using this could help you gain the advantage in your draft, being able to wait a little longer to grab your QB and still be happy with your choice.

QB 8, 10 and 11 all had very similar stats as each other last season but fell short of Stafford’s projected numbers. QB 8 (pick 84 overall) is Aaron Rodgers. He threw for 4002 yards getting 26 TDs. QB 10 (pick 88 overall) is Matt Ryan. He threw for 4446 years and 27 TDs. Finally, QB 11 (pick 93 overall) is Carson Wentz. He threw for 4039 yards and got 27 TDs.

Waiting for just a round or two more could see you pick up a few key players to build your roster and still give you a chance to grab Stafford.

Daniel Jones – New York Giants

The rookie season for Jones was a mixed bag. Flashes of brilliance and flashes of an exposed rookie. Jones started 12 games last season. In those 12 games, he threw a TD or more in every single game. Not only that but he was slinging the ball on average 37 times a game. Compare that to a similar ADP QB Baker Mayfield, who was averaging 33 passes a game. As we all know. Volume is key.

Going off 2019 stats there is one QB that you can compare Jones to and that’s Aaron Rodgers. In 16 games Rodgers threw for 26 TDs, Jones got 24 in 12 starts. In 16 games Rodgers threw the ball 569 times for 4002 yards. In 12 starts Jones threw the ball 445 times for 3007 yards. Using the average, Jones was projected to throw the ball 593 times which projects Jones to have just made it over 4000 yards in 16 games.

As seen above in the Stafford piece, Rodgers ADP is the QB 8. When you get similar stats from a QB like Jones but draft him as the QB 16 off the board and 114th overall, that’s quite a lot of draft stock you can use for very similar stats.

Can only get better!

Another year as an NFL player, another year with the playbook and coach and another year building on everything he has already learnt can give Jones an extra boost going into year 2.

That and he will have a healthy Saquon Barkley who is an absolute beast. A great dual-threat to help a young QB. With him in the backfield, the opposition’s defence will have to split and cover Barkley. In turn, opening up the field for the WR’s giving Jones better options. As we have already seen Barkley can catch the ball and run hard too. A perfect offensive weapon to increase Jones’ fantasy value.

Ben Roethlisberger – Pittsburgh Steelers

My boy Big Ben, yes some slight bias comes into this final QB. Ben could be very useful as a last-minute draft pick or a nice back up in an 8/10 team league.

2019 had a lot of hype about it for the Steelers. The D was cooking and the Offence was fresh after losing AB and Bell. Everything was in line for another run to the playoffs until Ben got a thumping against New England week 1 and then had his season ended in week 2.

Stats wise we can’t go off 2019. It’s also hard to go off 2018 too. Even though it was a monster year. Big Ben racked up over 5000 passing yards and 34 TDs. But that was with one of the best WRs in the league and JuJu lapping up the space left from AB getting double coverage.

He’s still got it

That 2018 season just proved Ben still has what it takes. Yes, he’s coming off his surgery, so we won’t know how that will have affected him. However, Ben has been throwing balls and progressing well with the recovery. Even stating that he was throwing pain-free for the first time in years.

On top of that Ben likes to throw the ball to anyone that will catch it. Those pass catchers are JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson and James Washington all young and showing promise. Yes, James Conner didn’t have the best of seasons, but when Big Ben was behind centre he had a cracker. The opposition D made Rudolph and Hodges throw the ball and stacked the box meaning Conner was taken out.

James Conner, the pass-catching back with a healthy Big Ben will complement the WRs nicely. Pair all that with the new signing of Eric Ebron (you can find out even more on why I like this connection in the TE Bust for Lust edition) and Ben Roethlisberger has a solid offence to stack up some numbers once again.

ADP

If you missed out on getting that elite QB at the top of the draft then wait. Fill your team with those elusive RBs and WRs that your league are missing out on by drafting QBs too early.

Right now Roethlisberger is going as the QB 17 and 115th overall. As we get closer to the season and Ben starts to prove that he’s back from injury his stock is only going to move up. So at the price right now, he’s a nice addition and good value late in the draft.

Using these to win your draft!

Drafting well isn’t going to win you the fantasy crown but drafting poorly can pretty much lose is for you before the season starts. This is where drafting a late-round QB comes in.

Murf wrote about it in his QB i streamed a stream series and talks about the guys at late-round QB all the time when it comes to draft season. He has every right to as the stats don’t lie. Getting a QB late on in the draft who can put up very similar numbers to a QB that is going mid rounds is always a win.

Filling your team up with more talented depth in the mid-rounds can get you on the right step to winning your league and winning your draft. Hence why you should look at these potentially sneaky good QBs going late in drafts.

Thanks for reading my Bust to Lust series. As always Rush nation, until next time Keep Rushing.

-Pittsy @PittsyNFL

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