TRUST YOUR GUT – QUARTERBACKS

When it comes to fantasy football drafting, a lot of people take into consideration that most of the playing field will change. How will adding new coaches and skill players into an offense affect the game scheme? Will a new wide receiver help move the ball faster? How will the new offensive coordinator call plays? For others, it comes down to the TRUST FACTOR. 

Either way, when it comes to Quarterbacks, the one thing you need is consistency. A player who you trust to get you 20 points a week with the occasional game where they hit for 25 points. 

 Let’s look at the top 5 quarterbacks in my TRUST FACTOR list.

JOSH ALLEN – TRUST FACTOR RATING (TFR) 8.0

• This season Josh Allen threw for 4,407 yards and 36 touchdowns while averaging 24.6 fantasy points per game for the season, the best QB fantasy points average in 2021. His ability to run is also a major upside. He ran for 763 yards and 6 touchdowns last season, averaging 44.9 yards per game. 
• Weapons for 2022 start with Stefon Diggs and Dawson Knox. Stefon Diggs is leading the WR corp for the Bills. Last year was a drop off from the year before but still great numbers. He finished with an average of 16.8 FPPG. Which was down from 20.5 FPPG in 2020. Dawson Knox had 587 receiving yards with 9 touchdowns with a 69% catch rate. In 15 games, he averaged 7.7 fantasy PPG. 
• New additions on offense start with Jamison Crowder, Duke Johnson and O.J. Howard. Bringing in experienced players help secure enough weapons in their arsenal to be able to compete for a Super Bowl. They also are adding Greg Mancz from the Dolphins and Rodger Saffold from the Titans. These are great additions to strengthen the Offensive Line depth in 2022.

PATRICK MAHOMES – TFR 7.2

• Patrick Mahomes took a lot of heat during the season when the Chiefs did not look so good. As the season rolled on he took the form of a QB that was ready to take his team to the Super Bowl. Mahomes finished with 4,828 yards and 37 touchdowns and a fantasy point average of 22.0 points per game. He rushed for 381 yards and 2 touchdowns in 17 games. 
• At the time of writing, he just lost Tyreek Hill in a trade to the Dolphins. He still has Travis Kelce, who had 1,125 receiving yards with 10 touchdowns while averaging 13.6 FPPG. With new arrival Juju Smith-Schuster , who is looking to bounce back after only playing 5 games last year due to injury. They will have their hands full in the AFC West. They also have Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Derrick Gore and Mecole Hardman returning for the 2022 season.
• New additions alongside Juju are Austin Reiter from Miami and Geron Christian from the Texans. The Chiefs clearly look to beef up their depth on the offensive line for this season. And they will surely add more weapons for Mahomes to trust before the season starts.

 

TOM BRADY / TFR 6.8

• Third on my list this year is the one and only GOAT, Thomas Edward Patrick Brady Jr. Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the arena, there he is – coming back for one more try at another Super Bowl. In 2021 he had an avg of 22 FPPG and threw for 5316 yards and 43 touchdowns. 
• His main weapons look to be the same, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Evans had 1,035 receiving yards with 14 touchdowns with a 14.1 FPPG. Godwin had 1,103 receiving yards with 6 total touchdowns and 13.8 FPPG. Throw in Leonard Fournette, and you have a trio of weapons that will move the ball effectively.
• The Bucs have been re-signing players from last year but have acquired two newcomers. First, guard Shaq Mason from the Patriots and a new target for Mr. Brady, Russell Gage from the Falcons. He had 770 yards with 4 touchdowns and averaged 10 FPPG. I am sure he will fit in like a glove at WR3 and, if Gronk comes back, Brady will be pushing till he gets back to the Super Bowl.

 

JOE BURROW – TFR 6.7

• The number 4 spot this year goes to the young man from Ohio, Joe Burrow. After only two seasons in the NFL and not full seasons at that, he has shown his leadership to be one of the top in the league. Just like Brady, players want to play for him and trust him when he is underneath center. Averaging 19.6 FPPG and throwing for 4611 yards with 34 touchdowns, he made a mark in the AFC that took him all the way to the Super Bowl. 
• The receiving corp on this team is one of the best in the NFL. Ja’Marr Chase had 1,455 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns with a 15.5 FPPG. Tee Higgins is the other weapon with 1,069 yards with 6 touchdowns and 13 FPPG.
• Offensive line protections were a cause for concern since Burrow came to the Bengals. But the front office seems dedicated to strengthening that area of the team. Signings like La,el Collins, Alex Cappa and Ted Karris prove that Cincinnati management want to keep their talisman much safer than before. Also, Hayden Hurst was signed to offer another target for Burrow.

 

LAMAR JACKSON – TFR 3.9

• Fifth on my list is Lamar Jackson. After a season of injuries that depleted a team that was picked to win the AFC North. Lamar and the Ravens look to bounce back and challenge the Bengals for King of the AFC North. After playing only 12 games in 2021, Lamar finished with 2,882 yard with 16 touchdowns and 13 interceptions while averaging 21.1 fantasy points for the year. He threw for 2,882 yard with 16 touchdowns. He also added 767 rushing yards with 2 touchdowns. His draft rank is #60 (ECR), with QBR 50.7 (ESPN).
• Mark Andrews leads the way for the receiving corps. He had a total of 1361 yards with 9 touchdowns and finished with an average of 14.6 FPPG. Marquise Brown comes in right behind Andrews with 1008 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns, he also averaged 11.3 FPPG.
• They have added Morgan Moses looking to replace Villanueva at Tackle, but still need to do more work before the season gets started. I FEEL STRONGLY that, when the season starts, Jackson will be ready to move the sticks.

Who is your gut telling you to trust?

Stacey – @sdcochran99