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What should you do with your final bench spots?

As we are in the middle of Scott Fish Bowl season there has been an awful lot of talk about different approaches to take in a draft. We start to see people campaigning for zero Running Back or zero Wide Receiver or what should you do with your final bench spots.

Last week I dived into what should you do with your final bench spots in your dynasty roster. So I thought I’d continue this trend and focus slightly more on redraft.

Zero RB or Zero WR

I’m sure it won’t shock you to hear the way I approach most drafts is value obsessed. However, traditionally that tends to lead to more of a one-stud Running Back approach. In the UK SFB chat, we were discussing the idea of zero Wide Receiver and how it seems to be the most popular strategy due to the perceived “depth” at the position. However, whilst it is true when you look at the end-of-season totals Wide Receiver is deep however it’s much more difficult to predict on a week-to-week basis who will produce.

The Numbers

If you look at last year’s redraft ADP rounds 10-14 it raises some interesting results. I am focusing on “usable weeks”. A useable week is deemed as a top 24 Running Back or top 36 Wide Receiver on the week.

Within that ADP range, there were 25 RBs drafted and 24 WRs.

RB
Players 25
Weeks Played 235
Useable Weeks 45
Percentage Useable 19.15%
WR
Players 24
Weeks Played 277
Useable Weeks 93
Percentage Useable 33.57%

 

As you can see just looking at the raw numbers the Wide Receiver position returns a much better result in terms of usable weeks. There were also some league-winning players drafted in this range including Robby Anderson, Curtis Samuel, Justin Jefferson, and Brandon Aiyuk.

What happens if you dig deeper?

However, after looking at the RB’s drafted you will notice there are a lot of guys who are backup RB’s. Realistically you are not starting them the majority of weeks. For example, you weren’t starting Tony Pollard 16 weeks last year. Although in the week Ezekiel Elliot was out you were 100% starting Pollard and he returned the #1 points at the Running Back position that week.

So if you narrow down the Running Back results to include on startable weeks as weeks in which the starter was inactive it gives much more interesting results:

RB
Weeks Played 54
Useable Weeks 26
Percentage Useable 48.15%

 

Conclusion

So if you are just looking for predictable consistency, later round Running Backs are far more likely to produce when given the opportunity. However, the volume of startable weeks from later round Running Backs is significantly limited to weeks in which the starter is injured.

Yes, the Wide Receiver position is deeper at the end of the season but the later round options are inconsistent when they hit on a week-to-week basis. Running Back is a volume-based position where a backup will perform should they get the opportunity but those weeks are limited.

So should you go Wide receiver early and load up on Running Back late? Sorry to disappoint but the answer is no. Therefore, a balanced approach where you recoup value through the draft is and will always be the best draft philosophy. When it comes to those final bench spots target value regardless of position.

Make sure you’re following the Dynasty team @5YardDynasty and Richard @DynastyIsland

Raw Data

RB

Player Position ADP Games Played useable weeks Percent useable Predictable starts Of which startable Percent
Damien Harris RB 10.07 10 3 30.0% 10 3 30.00%
Tony Pollard RB 10.08 16 3 18.8% 1 1 100.00%
Adrian Peterson RB 10.10 16 4 25.0% 3 2 66.67%
Tarik Cohen RB 11.06 3 0 0.0% 0 0  
A.J. Dillon RB 11.11 9 1 11.1% 0 0  
Justin Jackson RB 11.12 8 4 50.0% 3 2 66.67%
Bryce Love RB 13.02 0 0        
Ryquell Armstead RB 13.03 0 0        
Carlos Hyde RB 13.04 10 3 30.0% 1 1 100.00%
Boston Scott RB 13.06 16 2 12.5% 4 1 25.00%
Nyheim Hines RB 13.09 16 7 43.8% 16 7 43.75%
Chris Thompson RB 13.09 6 0 0.0%      
Benny Snell Jr. RB 13.11 15 2 13.3% 3 2 66.67%
Jerick McKinnon RB 13.11 14 6 42.9% 4 3 75.00%
Darrel Williams RB 14.01 13 1 7.7% 2 0 0.00%
Ito Smith RB 14.02 14 1 7.1% 1 1 100.00%
LeSean McCoy RB 14.02 8 0 0.0%      
Duke Johnson RB 14.02 11 2 18.2% 4 1 25.00%
Lamar Miller RB 14.03 0 0        
DeAndre Washington RB 14.04 4 0 0.0%      
Joshua Kelley RB 14.04 13 1 7.7% 0 0  
Rashaad Penny RB 14.05 3 0 0.0% 0 0  
Anthony McFarland Jr. RB 14.06 11 0 0.0% 0 0  
Jamaal Williams RB 14.09 14 4 28.6% 2 2 100.00%
Darrynton Evans RB 14.10 5 1 20.0%      

WR

Player Position ADP Games Played useable weeks Percent useable Predictable starts Of which startable Percent
John Brown WR 11.01 9 5 55.6% 9 5 55.56%
Mike Williams WR 11.04 14 5 35.7% 14 5 35.71%
DeSean Jackson WR 11.05 5 2 40.0% 5 2 40.00%
Sterling Shepard WR 11.06 12 6 50.0% 12 6 50.00%
Justin Jefferson WR 11.06 16 10 62.5% 16 10 62.50%
Sammy Watkins WR 11.08 10 2 20.0% 10 2 20.00%
Jalen Reagor WR 12.05 11 0 0.0% 11 0 0.00%
Alshon Jeffery WR 12.05 7 0 0.0% 7 0 0.00%
Anthony Miller WR 12.07 16 3 18.8% 16 3 18.75%
Robby Anderson WR 12.11 16 10 62.5% 16 10 62.50%
Jamison Crowder WR 12.12 12 7 58.3% 12 7 58.33%
N’Keal Harry WR 13.01 13 1 7.7% 13 1 7.69%
Preston Williams WR 13.03 8 2 25.0% 8 2 25.00%
Bryan Edwards WR 13.10 9 1 11.1% 9 1 11.11%
Golden Tate WR 14.01 12 1 8.3% 12 1 8.33%
Brandon Aiyuk WR 14.03 12 8 66.7% 12 8 66.67%
Allen Lazard WR 14.03 10 3 30.0% 10 3 30.00%
Parris Campbell WR 14.05 2 1 50.0% 2 1 50.00%
Michael Pittman Jr. WR 14.05 13 2 15.4% 13 2 15.38%
Laviska Shenault Jr. WR 14.06 14 6 42.9% 14 6 42.86%
Curtis Samuel WR 14.07 15 9 60.0% 15 9 60.00%
Breshad Perriman WR 14.08 12 3 25.0% 12 3 25.00%
Hunter Renfrow WR 14.12 16 3 18.8% 16 3 18.75%
Larry Fitzgerald WR 14.12 13 3 23.1% 13 3 23.08%

 

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