As we are in the middle of Scott Fish Bowl season there has been an awful lot of talk about different approaches to take in a draft. We start to see people campaigning for zero Running Back or zero Wide Receiver or what should you do with your final bench spots.

Last week I dived into what should you do with your final bench spots in your dynasty roster. So I thought I’d continue this trend and focus slightly more on redraft.

Zero RB or Zero WR

I’m sure it won’t shock you to hear the way I approach most drafts is value obsessed. However, traditionally that tends to lead to more of a one-stud Running Back approach. In the UK SFB chat, we were discussing the idea of zero Wide Receiver and how it seems to be the most popular strategy due to the perceived “depth” at the position. However, whilst it is true when you look at the end-of-season totals Wide Receiver is deep however it’s much more difficult to predict on a week-to-week basis who will produce.

The Numbers

If you look at last year’s redraft ADP rounds 10-14 it raises some interesting results. I am focusing on “usable weeks”. A useable week is deemed as a top 24 Running Back or top 36 Wide Receiver on the week.

Within that ADP range, there were 25 RBs drafted and 24 WRs.

RB
Players	25
Weeks Played	235
Useable Weeks	45
Percentage Useable	19.15%
WR
Players	24
Weeks Played	277
Useable Weeks	93
Percentage Useable	33.57%

 

As you can see just looking at the raw numbers the Wide Receiver position returns a much better result in terms of usable weeks. There were also some league-winning players drafted in this range including Robby Anderson, Curtis Samuel, Justin Jefferson, and Brandon Aiyuk.

What happens if you dig deeper?

However, after looking at the RB’s drafted you will notice there are a lot of guys who are backup RB’s. Realistically you are not starting them the majority of weeks. For example, you weren’t starting Tony Pollard 16 weeks last year. Although in the week Ezekiel Elliot was out you were 100% starting Pollard and he returned the #1 points at the Running Back position that week.

So if you narrow down the Running Back results to include on startable weeks as weeks in which the starter was inactive it gives much more interesting results:

RB
Weeks Played	54
Useable Weeks	26
Percentage Useable	48.15%

 

Conclusion

So if you are just looking for predictable consistency, later round Running Backs are far more likely to produce when given the opportunity. However, the volume of startable weeks from later round Running Backs is significantly limited to weeks in which the starter is injured.

Yes, the Wide Receiver position is deeper at the end of the season but the later round options are inconsistent when they hit on a week-to-week basis. Running Back is a volume-based position where a backup will perform should they get the opportunity but those weeks are limited.

So should you go Wide receiver early and load up on Running Back late? Sorry to disappoint but the answer is no. Therefore, a balanced approach where you recoup value through the draft is and will always be the best draft philosophy. When it comes to those final bench spots target value regardless of position.

Make sure you’re following the Dynasty team @5YardDynasty and Richard @DynastyIsland

Raw Data

RB

Player	Position	ADP	Games Played	useable weeks	Percent useable	Predictable starts	Of which startable	Percent
Damien Harris	RB	10.07	10	3	30.0%	10	3	30.00%
Tony Pollard	RB	10.08	16	3	18.8%	1	1	100.00%
Adrian Peterson	RB	10.10	16	4	25.0%	3	2	66.67%
Tarik Cohen	RB	11.06	3	0	0.0%	0	0
A.J. Dillon	RB	11.11	9	1	11.1%	0	0
Justin Jackson	RB	11.12	8	4	50.0%	3	2	66.67%
Bryce Love	RB	13.02	0	0
Ryquell Armstead	RB	13.03	0	0
Carlos Hyde	RB	13.04	10	3	30.0%	1	1	100.00%
Boston Scott	RB	13.06	16	2	12.5%	4	1	25.00%
Nyheim Hines	RB	13.09	16	7	43.8%	16	7	43.75%
Chris Thompson	RB	13.09	6	0	0.0%
Benny Snell Jr.	RB	13.11	15	2	13.3%	3	2	66.67%
Jerick McKinnon	RB	13.11	14	6	42.9%	4	3	75.00%
Darrel Williams	RB	14.01	13	1	7.7%	2	0	0.00%
Ito Smith	RB	14.02	14	1	7.1%	1	1	100.00%
LeSean McCoy	RB	14.02	8	0	0.0%
Duke Johnson	RB	14.02	11	2	18.2%	4	1	25.00%
Lamar Miller	RB	14.03	0	0
DeAndre Washington	RB	14.04	4	0	0.0%
Joshua Kelley	RB	14.04	13	1	7.7%	0	0
Rashaad Penny	RB	14.05	3	0	0.0%	0	0
Anthony McFarland Jr.	RB	14.06	11	0	0.0%	0	0
Jamaal Williams	RB	14.09	14	4	28.6%	2	2	100.00%
Darrynton Evans	RB	14.10	5	1	20.0%

WR

Player	Position	ADP	Games Played	useable weeks	Percent useable	Predictable starts	Of which startable	Percent
John Brown	WR	11.01	9	5	55.6%	9	5	55.56%
Mike Williams	WR	11.04	14	5	35.7%	14	5	35.71%
DeSean Jackson	WR	11.05	5	2	40.0%	5	2	40.00%
Sterling Shepard	WR	11.06	12	6	50.0%	12	6	50.00%
Justin Jefferson	WR	11.06	16	10	62.5%	16	10	62.50%
Sammy Watkins	WR	11.08	10	2	20.0%	10	2	20.00%
Jalen Reagor	WR	12.05	11	0	0.0%	11	0	0.00%
Alshon Jeffery	WR	12.05	7	0	0.0%	7	0	0.00%
Anthony Miller	WR	12.07	16	3	18.8%	16	3	18.75%
Robby Anderson	WR	12.11	16	10	62.5%	16	10	62.50%
Jamison Crowder	WR	12.12	12	7	58.3%	12	7	58.33%
N’Keal Harry	WR	13.01	13	1	7.7%	13	1	7.69%
Preston Williams	WR	13.03	8	2	25.0%	8	2	25.00%
Bryan Edwards	WR	13.10	9	1	11.1%	9	1	11.11%
Golden Tate	WR	14.01	12	1	8.3%	12	1	8.33%
Brandon Aiyuk	WR	14.03	12	8	66.7%	12	8	66.67%
Allen Lazard	WR	14.03	10	3	30.0%	10	3	30.00%
Parris Campbell	WR	14.05	2	1	50.0%	2	1	50.00%
Michael Pittman Jr.	WR	14.05	13	2	15.4%	13	2	15.38%
Laviska Shenault Jr.	WR	14.06	14	6	42.9%	14	6	42.86%
Curtis Samuel	WR	14.07	15	9	60.0%	15	9	60.00%
Breshad Perriman	WR	14.08	12	3	25.0%	12	3	25.00%
Hunter Renfrow	WR	14.12	16	3	18.8%	16	3	18.75%
Larry Fitzgerald	WR	14.12	13	3	23.1%	13	3	23.08%